Chris Perkins: It’s home playoff game or bust for Dolphins, and age and injury histories aren’t favorable

Let’s start at the back and work our way forward: The Dolphins absolutely, positively need a home playoff game. Period.

In two seasons under coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins are 1-10 (.091) on the road against playoff teams.

That record includes the regular season loss to Kansas City in Germany, and road playoff losses at Buffalo and Kansas City.

The Dolphins aren’t winning a road playoff game. No way.

So that means every regular-season game counts on their march to 12, 13 wins, or whatever it takes to secure a home playoff game.

We’re cool on that?

Keep that thought in mind.

OK, let’s keep going.

We’re now seeing the Miami Dolphins’ 2024 master plan come into focus.

With each offseason move — releasing cornerback Xavien Howard, restructuring the contracts of players such as cornerback Jalen Ramsey and edge rusher Bradley Chubb, signing safety Jordan Poyer, drafting edge rusher Chop Robinson, signing wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. — you’re gaining more insight into the Dolphins’ thinking.

I still have my doubts about the Dolphins’ 2024 plan and whether it will succeed, meaning it leads to at least one playoff win, and hopefully more.

But the Dolphins’ strategy is coming more into focus.

They’re adding veteran talent to win now, and young talent to win later.

It’s a good strategy.

I like it, for the most part.

My main concern with the Dolphins in 2024 (I’m assuming they’ll make the playoffs) is that age and injury are going to cause some of their best players to miss games, and those absences could cause the Dolphins to miss out on a home playoff game. 

That means yet another first-round playoff exit.

The Dolphins’ top two offseason acquisitions — OBJ and safety Jordan Poyer — embody my concern.

Beckham, a three-time Pro Bowl selection, is 31 and coming off three consecutive injury-interrupted seasons.

Poyer, a 2021 All Pro selection and 2022 Pro Bowl selection, is 33, and although health isn’t a concern, his age raises a yellow caution flag.

On top of that, it seems that the Dolphins are inviting trouble by relying on a mixture of Poyer (33), left tackle Terron Armstead (32), running back Raheem Mostert (32), OBJ (31), edge rusher Shaq Barrett (31), backup left tackle Kendall Lamm (31), receiver Tyreek Hill (30) and Ramsey (30 in October).

That’s seven key starters, roughly one-third of the 22 offensive and defensive starters, and one key backup who are  or will be during the season, members of the dreaded 30-and-over club.

Plus, on the injury front you’ve still got to hope Chubb (knee) and fellow edge rusher Jaelan Phillips (Achilles) return to 100% health this season.

And don’t forget that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who had his first healthy season as a pro in 2023, remains an injury concern.

That also goes for running back De’Von Achane, who dazzled as a rookie but also dealt with injury issues.

Add it up, and that’s 11 of your top 25 or so players — roughly half — with age or injury concerns.

Stepping back for a second, I see the Dolphins’ plan for 2024 more clearly now.

For the most part, I like it.

But I have concerns about whether that plan, as currently constructed, gets the Dolphins their much-needed home playoff game.

Again, every regular-season game counts for this team more than any other playoff team.

Miami is a bad road team.

The Dolphins are 7-12 (.368) away from Hard Rock Stadium in the past two seasons, including their two road playoff losses and the loss in Germany. 

By the way, I’m not pointing a finger of blame toward anyone when I say I have my doubts about whether the Dolphins will win a playoff game.

You’ll recall I’m on record as agreeing with the “all in” plan of acquiring veterans and trying to win a Super Bowl right now. 

I still agree with that plan 100%. 

I don’t agree with all of the offseason moves. I favored keeping defensive lineman Christian Wilkins and Howard.

For the most part, however, I like the acquisitions.

I agree with the OBJ signing. I think it’s an excellent acquisition.

But I worry about the 2024 plan from a practical standpoint.

Get past the idealism of what each player could do.

Many of the Dolphins’ key players are going to break down physically during the season.

That’s a likelihood according to their age, their recent injury history and NFL injury trends.

That’s also the Dolphins’ recent trend. They’ve had lots of injuries to key players during the past two years. 

Going beyond the injuries, the Dolphins are still a less-talented team than a year ago.

No one will doubt that.

It’s going to be that way all year.

They’ve got to deal with that by using their talent differently.

That’s largely on McDaniel.

I’ve talked about that before, I’ll talk about it again.

The takeaway for now is this: The Dolphins need a home playoff game. Badly.

And one of their biggest challenges during the 2024 season will be preventing age and injuries from derailing that goal.