NHL second round picks, part II

Talking picks out West

The Dallas Stars were the top team in the Western Conference, but their playoff path sure hasn’t been easy. First up was the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights — a big enough challenge even before they boldly stretch the salary cap limits to fortify their team even further. Dallas survives in a tight seven game series and now they get the rested and primed Colorado Avalanche. Woof. And to think, people in New York were complaining about the playoff format (then again, Rangers partisans complain about everything).

Anyways, the Stars’ challenge is the hockey world’s benefit. DAL/VGK was one of the most entertaining and hardest fought first round matchups that you’ll ever see. The follow-up against Colorado could be even better.

Biggest key: is Jake Oettinger fresh or foul? Goalie Jake Oettinger’s career over the first three seasons from 2021-23 showed the sorts of incremental consistent improvement and straight-line progress that is almost never seen in hockey, let alone for goaltenders. His save percentage went from .911% to .914% to .919%. His wins ticked up from 11 to 30 to 37. Oettinger’s quality start % went from 50% to 58.7% to 63.4%. Those numbers were impressive as a rookie and became star-caliber by the end. However 2023-24 was rocky, he regressed and finally fell into the common goalie trap about never knowing what to expect (.905 save%, 54.7% quality starts). His GSAA plummeted from +26 last year to +2 this year. But Oettinger’s regular season will be a small footnote if he can slow down Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and the gang in Colorado. Oettinger was tremendous against Vegas (.925 save%, 6/7 quality starts) and a big reason Dallas won. He’s going to have to be just as good against the Avalanche to give his team a chance.

Prediction: Avalanche in 6. This should be an exciting and high-qualtity matchup. Either of these teams are more than worthy to move onto the conference final, but there’s only space for one. Colorado scored an eye-popping 28 goals in five games against Winnipeg (5.6 per game). They won’t get as much against Oettinger and the Stars’ defense, but they still should have more than enough firepower that looks primed again for a very deep run. It’s starting to look like shades of 2022 again out in Denver, where their team is so good it doesn’t matter who their goalie is, or what the other team does; the Avs are just too good and bound to rise to the top.

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The other matchup is a north of the border clash that sees the last two surviving Canadian teams looking to keep the Stanley Cup at home for the first time since 1993.

Vancouver has made it to the second round with third-string goalie Arturs Silovs putting up a .938 save% and two wins in three games. Must be nice to have a spicy pork story with some staying power!

But there’s some under-lying reason for why a minor league goalie could survive the NHL playoff grind. Coach Rick Tocchet has the boys in Vancouver tuned up and playing some really strong defense this season. The Canucks are going to need that, because the Oil’s attack features the most pure skill in the league.

Nashville was only able to throw 80 total shots over three games at Silovs (26.6 per). The Oilers aren’t a volume shooting team, but they are lethal at creating offense. Connor McDavid put up 12 points (1G+11A) in just five games against LA. Would you believe McDavid already has more 10+ point playoff series than Sidney Crosby?

Beyond the goalie situation, Vancouver has adapted a team-first defense grind. Brock Boeser (4G) was a key offensive figure against Nashville. Elias Lindholm (2G+1A) showed up. They’ll still be looking to get Elias Pettersson (0G+3A) going a little more this round. Given that the big guns in Edmonton don’t go quiet, the Canucks have no choice but to get some production out of their top players if they want to keep up.

Biggest key: when will Thatcher Demko come back? High credit and full praise to the Canucks not missing much of a beat with second and third string goalies against Nashville. But a team can’t smoke and mirror their way past McDavid and the Edmonton offense like that for very long. Vancouver needs Demko, and they need him to hit the ice at 100% ASAP.

Prediction: Oilers in 5. I’m not a believer yet that it’s Edmonton’s year, but so far this is a very favorable path to the Western Conference Final, given the injury situation in Vancouver. Nothing wrong with accepting some good fortune when it comes your way.