The World Daily Brief: Chinese President Xi visits Europe this week; Israel, Hamas ceasefire talks break down

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Coming Up this Week

• China’s Pres. Xi is in Europe this week on a trip the NYT says “is likely to be seen as a none-too-subtle effort to divide Western allies.” He’ll visit France, Serbia (on the 25th anniversary of NATO’s accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade tomorrow), and Hungary. READ MORE
• Chad votes for president today, making it the first of the West African countries that fell to a coup in recent years to hold an election with the stated intent to return to democracy. [Opposition groups call that a lie, though: junta leader Mahamat Idriss Deby – who grabbed power after rebels killed his long-ruling father, Pres. Idriss Deby, in 2021 – is expected to win (it helps that 10 rivals were excluded from the ballot for “irregularities” and security forces shot an 11th dead in February). Deby’s critics say the election is a sham designed to legitimize his rule.] READ MORE
• One of the energy industry’s biggest tradeshows, the Offshore Technology Conference, begins today and runs through Thursday in Texas.
• Russia celebrates its bloody victory over Nazi Germany – known as Victory Day in Russia – on Thursday, May 9 too. READ MORE
• The Eurovision finals are on Saturday, May 11. READ MORE

Commodity Prices

• Aluminum: $2,552/ton
• Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $15,100/ton
• Cobalt: $27,830/ton
• Copper: $9,910/ton
• Gold: $2,318/toz
• Lead: $2,215/ton
• Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.14/MMbtu
• WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $78.92/barrel
• Zinc: $2,903/ton

International News

Gaza

• Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas broke down once again and Hamas negotiators left Cairo. READ MORE
• This time the main point of disagreement wasn’t the number of hostages to be released, but rather the duration of a truce: Hamas wants a permanent one, and Israel fears that would let Hamas rebuild its arsenal to stage future attacks. READ MORE
• Israel appears to be preparing to launch its ground offensive in Rafah, and may be further encouraged by a Hamas rocket attack launched from Rafah that killed three Israeli soldiers and led Israel to close the Kerem Shalom border crossing to aid trucks. READ MORE
• Israel called on Palestinian civilians to evacuate certain parts of Rafah ahead of a “limited scope” operation, but it’s not clear if this is related to the looming ground invasion of the city. READ MORE
• Separately, Israel’s cabinet voted to close local operations for Qatar-based Al Jazeera – which it called “a Hamas mouthpiece” – for at least 45 days. Journalists decried the ban as a violation of their freedom of expression. READ MORE

India

• Canadian police arrested three Indian nationals linked to the assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Vancouver last June. PM Trudeau believes Pres. Modi’s government ordered the killing, and he’s probably right – though Delhi denies it. READ MORE

Afghanistan

• Residents of northeastern Badakhshan province started an unprecedented protest on Friday against the Taliban government, which had begun to destroy local poppy fields. READ MORE
• The Taliban responded with a heavy hand over the weekend, firing at protesters to disperse them and killing at least two in the process. READ MORE
• Taliban officials say the protests are over and Badakhshan is back to normal, but locals remain angry with the government and its nationwide ban on lucrative poppy production. Its heavy-handed response to quell protests probably further fueled their anger. READ MORE

Sahel

• Two new Russian transport planes arrived in Niger over the weekend. The first plane preceding them, which arrived April 10th, carried around 100 Russian trainers, so these next two could easily triple the number of Russian advisors working with the junta. READ MORE
• Separately, Nigerien officials ordered several Chinese-owned gold mines to temporarily close after local herders reported that dozens in their flocks had died from suspected groundwater contamination (the region isn’t currently suffering from drought or any known animal epidemics). READ MORE

Other News

• The U.S. indicted a Democratic congressman from Texas, Henry Cuellar, for accepting around $600,000 worth of bribes through consulting and shell companies in his wife’s name in exchange for exerting influence to benefit an Azerbaijani state energy company and a Mexican bank. READ MORE
• Panama elected last-minute stand-in candidate José Raúl Mulino as its next president after Mulino replaced former President Ricardo Martinelli – who was convicted of money laundering and sentenced to 10 years in prison (which he is avoiding in the Nicaraguan embassy) – on the ballot. READ MORE

The World Daily Brief is composed daily by former CIA and Intelligence officers.

Armstrong Williams (www.armstrongwilliams.com; @arightside) is a political analyst, syndicated columnist and owner of the broadcasting company, Howard Stirk Holdings. He is also part owner of The Baltimore Sun.