Series Preview: Tigers at Guardians
First time playing Detroit in 2024
The Guardians will play the Tigers for the first time in 2024, testing themselves against the team that finished just above them in the Central in 2023... allowing them to secure the number one draft pick.
The Tigers enter the series at 18-16 with a +4 run differential, a team wRC+ of 91, a starting pitcher FIP of 3.39, a bullpen FIP of 4.01, -1.6 Defensive WAR, and +1.3 Baserunning Runs above average. It will be important to avoid striking out and to get to the Tigers bullpen as early as possible.
The Guardians enter the series at 22-12 with a +43 run differential, a team wRC+ of 105, a starting pitcher FIP of 4.65, a bullpen FIP of 2.65, +4.5 Defensive WAR, and -2.1 Baserunning Runs above average.
Matchups:
Game 1: Jack Flaherty, RHP (2.85 FIP) vs. Triston McKenzie, RHP (5.16 FIP) 6:10PM EST
Analysis: It’s been a rough week or so for Guardians’ hitters, so, with Kwan headed to the IL, only David Fry at 164 wRC+ and Josh Naylor at 148 wRC+ are notably above average for major league hitters. It would be a good time for the Guardians’ lefty-heavy lineup, including newcomer Kyle Manzardo, to begin hitting some right-handed starters this series. Meanwhile, the team needs McKenzie to build on a good last start. Maybe he’ll find a way to mix in a slider a couple more times to keep teams off his curveball, but the almost exclusive fastball-curveball mix he had last time out looked very encouraging.
Game 2: Kenta Maeda, RHP (6.09 FIP) vs. Logan Allen, LHP (5 FIP) 6:10PM EST
Analysis: The Guardians always seem to struggle with Maeda, but he has not been good this season and they need to find a way to get to him. Allen had an encouraging last outing, while let down by poor defense. He’ll need to find a way to neutralize Wenceel Perez at 169 wRC+, Riley Greene at 165 wRC+, Mark Canha at 139 wRC+, Buddy Kennedy at 119 wRC+, and Kerry Carpenter at 119 wRC+ who lead the Tigers’ offense.
Game 3: Reese Olson, RHP (2.74 FIP) vs. Tanner Bibee, RHP (4.31 FIP) 1:10PM EST
Analysis: Olson has performed incredibly well as a young pitcher for the Tigers. Bibee has not done as well for the Guardians. This would be a great game for those trends to reverse. Olson has been dominating teams with his mid-90’s fastball and his changeup. Estevan Florial has destroyed changeups this season at five runs above average, and Andres Gimenez has also been a couple runs above average against the change. Meanwhile, Jose Ramirez has been three runs above average against fastballs and David Fry has been two runs above average against the heater.