Mason Miller: Me Pitch Pretty One Day!
On the surface, pitcher Mason Miller and author David Sedaris appear to have little in common. Yet this afternoon worlds collide as Miller will be available to pitch sometime in the 3:00 hour, which is when Sedaris’ 90 minute will begin at Cal Performances in Berkeley. I have tickets to see Sedaris, whose appearance might outdraw the Coliseum, so if there is Miller Time today I will have to miss it.
Thanks to his exploits at Yankee Stadium, Miller is receiving national attention for his special arm that routinely throws 102 MPH with a crackling slider and the ability to locate his pitches. The question is: does Miller pose as a dominant closer on his way to being an ace starting pitcher or does he find a home in the bullpen? Or does his arm fall apart sooner rather than later rendering it all moot?
Like it or not, Miller’s arm is a ticking time bomb thanks to a UCL sprain rehabbed without Tommy John surgery. (Ken Waldichuk is currently attempting to beat the odds in the same way.) The problem is that UCL sprains don’t generally heal themselves, and the best way to keep the ligament calm isn’t to throw 100+ MPH fastballs or to break off sharp sliders.
Keep in mind that from 2021-2023, over his 3 professional seasons Miller logged just 39.1 IP., adding another 33.1 IP in Oakland before his season ended early — wait for it — due to injury. His innings total in 2023 was 52.2 IP, which represents his career high to date.
I’m here today to suggest a career path for Miller with the A’s that leaves unanswered the question of how good a SP he could be. That won’t sit well with everyone, because without question an ace SP is far more valuable than even a lock down closer.
Why Not Move Miller Into The Rotation?
First off, any move to the rotation would have be very gradual in that coming off of 52.2 IP, currently on pace to throw 68 IP in 2024, you would have to expect Miller would ramp up to no more than about 120 IP in 2025 before maybe seeking a more normal starter’s workload in 2026.
Meanwhile, he would be dialing down the fastball to “only 97-98MPH” or so with 100+ in his back pocket, forcing him to downgrade his pure stuff in the name of longevity.
All with a much increased risk of injury to a ligament that is already signaling trouble ahead. Anything the A’s can do to keep him healthy is going to be more useful than what they could potentially get out of him if he didn’t come with major health risks.
“Old School Closer” Time
That doesn’t mean Miller has to be relegated to 9th inning duties. Tony LaRussa, wearing an A’s uniform, rewrote the book on closers when he stumbled upon Dennis Eckersley and the rest is history.
As we’re seeing real time, a lockdown bullpen can be a huge asset especially when it bridges more than a single inning. It’s the combination of Miller and Lucas Erceg that has shortened games to where the A’s are defeated — and feel undefeatable — when they lead after just 7 innings.
I think the A’s have an opportunity to mold Miller into more than just a “9th inning closer”. What I would like to see the A’s do next year is to keep Miller in the closer’s role, where he is already arguably the best closer in baseball, but to look at him as a guy who can pitch the 9th inning but also can pitch the 8th and 9th on a day he is fresh and 2 innings are needed.
Between Erceg and Miller you might have some games where you can turn over the last 3 innings to your two-headed monster, leaving teams scrambling to keep pace with you by the end of the 6th. It’s the model the Kansas City Royals used with the three-headed monster of Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kelvin Herrera to make opposing teams feel the heat of trailing by a run in the 6th — normally no time to panic.
There is precedent. Go back all the way to the mid ‘70s and you have Rollie Fingers, the master of the 3 inning save. Closer roles are whatever you make them and Miller has the ability to dominate 2 innings and even do it somewhat economically as he throws strikes.
Perhaps this would make Miller a closer who logged close to 100 innings, which is a modest but possibly sustainable jump from his current totals. Instead of asking him to throw 180 innings 100 pitches at a time, let him throw 102 and leverage him to be more than “just a one inning guy”.
A plan of this nature has to come with some natural restrictions. Perhaps any 2 inning stint is followed by a day off, and maybe he’s not someone you ever ask to pitch 3 games in a row. That’s why it’s particuarly helpful to have a “Miller Jr.” in the mix like Erceg, a guy who can step into the closer’s role for a day or might give you 2 innings on a day Miller is resting.
Erceg becomes Ron Davis to your Goose Gossage, Gene Nelson to your Eck, or any number of key pairings teams have ridden deep into the post-season.
In other words, staying in the bullpen and limiting to 100 or so innings, Miller still has a chance to be a hugely impactful piece of a highly competitive team. It’s all about maximizing his chances to stay healthy, and no one really believes that his best chance for health comes as a SP.
It’s just his ultimate upside to be a legitimate ace and that’s alluring. But his floor is really low, because his floor is “injured pitcher who could have been great” and like it or not history suggests this to be the very most likely outcome for a pitcher with his healthy history.
If you were in the A’s front office and/or training staff, nursing Miller through 2024 and then making a decision about where to go from here, assuming he makes it through the season healthy where would you go with him in 2025 and beyond?
It’s not an easy question, but there’s my best answer and if the A’s decide to go that route they will have my support even though aces don’t grow on trees and Miller has all the trappings. Something to ponder as you dress your family in corduroy and denim.