Local election battering isn’t all bad for Tories – they can look forward to a hung parliament not a Labour landslide
AS they count their dead and wounded, vanquished Tories have but one thing to look forward to . . . a hung parliament, with Labour barely clinging to power.
Eh? Surely some mistake.
The evidence from Thursday’s bloodbath is that Keir Starmer’s Red Army is on the rampage while Rishi Sunak is leading his party to oblivion.
But no. Experts with brains the size of the planet have studied the results, straightened the wrinkles and discovered the opinion polls showing a 20-point Labour lead are an illusion.
Raw voting figures put Labour a mere seven points ahead — by 34 per cent to 27 per cent.
Labour’s success, though real, was actually caused by the rise of “others” such as Reform and the Greens, despite the desertion of Muslim Labour voters over Gaza.
With months to run before a General Election, an improving economy and evidence that the Rwanda deportation plan is working, Labour’s lead will begin the shrink.
Wishful Tory thinking? Not at all.
This comes from revered political analysts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, who in 40 years of polling forecasts have rarely put a foot wrong.
While grinning Starmer was rubbing his hands and calling for a snap election, the two cautious academics quietly rained on his parade.
“Labour’s performance wasn’t stellar,” soft-spoken Rallings told Sky’s Trevor Phillips.
“They went backwards compared with last year.
“It is not wholly clear to me that Labour could win an overall majority.”
This will shock Starmerites banking on a 200-seat majority and the annihilation of “Tory scum”.
But it tallies with the private view of battle-hardened Labour veterans who have seen many an unbeatable Labour lead evaporate on polling day.
They fear pundits are comparing today’s Starmer surge with the 1997 triumph which handed Tony Blair a 179-seat majority.
“This looks more like 1964 when the Tories had been in power for 13 years, battered by the Christine Keeler sex scandal and led by Tory toff Sir Alec Douglas-Home,” says an ex-Cabinet minister.
“Labour’s charismatic Harold Wilson was tipped to win by a mile. Instead, he scraped in by just four seats.”
One thing is clear, even to Starmer’s closest allies.
Labour’s triumph on Thursday was nothing to do with him or the party.
This was a huge two-fingered salute to the Tories.
Which leaves Rishi Sunak with room to improve.
His strongest suit is Starmer’s failure to set out his stall, especially on immigration and the economy.
On the evidence so far, Starmer is at odds with undecided voters on both counts.
Two-fingered salute
He is secretly plotting huge undeclared tax hikes on anyone with spare cash and a splurge on public sector expansion, especially wages which will do nothing for the economy.
He has bungled immigration, promising fast-track asylum processing for 90,000 illegal immigrants already here and a welcome mat for tens of thousands waiting to set sail.
Starmer’s first act will be to scrap flights to Rwanda just as Rishi’s plans start working.
Hundreds of illegals are now crossing the Irish Sea to avoid a one-way ticket to Kigali.
And to Sir Keir’s dismay, his beloved EU is planning to copy Britain by shipping asylum seekers for processing in Africa.
Thursday’s results also focused eyes on Richard Tice’s Reform Party — formerly the Brexit Party — which grabbed plenty of votes but failed to win seats.
Tice does not expect to win seats for MPs either.
Too smart to act
He just wants to smash first-past-the-post voting and replace it with proportional representation — a recipe for perpetual Italian-style coalition chaos.
All this explains why Tory plotters against Rishi Sunak are waving the white flag.
If they have any sense they will stop screaming from the sidelines like suicidal banshees, as was ex-Home Secretary Suella Braverman yesterday to a receptive BBC.
There may be lively talk of a deal between Reform’s Nigel Farage and ex-PM Boris Johnson, with BoJo reportedly coiled like a snake ready to strike.
But these two are too smart to act before the election.
For the time being, the Tories need to rally around their battered leader and prove Thrasher and Rallings right again.
Trans wars
THE trans wars are far from over despite rulings against such terms as “chestfeeding” and “people who give birth”.
I turned up for a minor op last week and was asked some routine questions about allergies and medical history.
The nurse’s final query took me by surprise: “I have to ask, are you pregnant?”
I felt rather flattered.
I would have assumed anyone could see I am well past child-bearing age.