NHL second round playoff picks

What’s going to happen out East?

The second round of the NHL playoffs kicks off later today when the pucks drops in New York for the Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes. It is a fitting conclusion for a Metropolitan Division final this season, being as NYR and Carolina have both been heads and shoulders above the rest of the division.

It’s also going to be a fascinating clash of styles. The Rangers are average at 5v5, outstanding on special teams, wonderfully opportunistic converters of chances and backed up by world class goaltending. In many ways, Carolina is built the opposite to be tremendous at 5v5 (especially for shot and chance suppression) but traditionally have struggled to make actual goals out of the expected chances they pile up. Goaltending has been more of a rotation and sometimes a weak spot.

If Carolina can match the Rangers in the special teams battle, as the above suggests for season results, that takes out a lot of NYR’s advantages over most teams. Frederik Andersen returning from his medical issues and giving stability to the Hurricanes in net (4-1, .912% in the first round) also shores up a big area of concern.

As good as Andersen was, Igor Shesterkin was even more stingy to never give Washington a chance (4-0 record, .931 save%) but now NYR isn’t facing one of the least dangerous offenses in the league. Carolina beefed up by adding Jake Guentzel (1G+3A) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (2G+2A) for known point-producers at this time of year. So far, so good.

New York holds home ice advantage — which is hockey doesn’t always lead to an edge — but it might be worth remembering that NYR is an NHL-best 32-11-0 (counting playoffs) at home this season. Beyond the energy of playing for the home crowd, the chess match between two veteran coaches in Peter Laviolette (NYR) and Rod Brind’Amour (CAR) regarding matchups and last change for the home team could prove to be an important piece of strategy.

Biggest key: can Rangers keep it even at even strength? Based on the way these two teams play and the total team concept by Carolina, it is almost assured that Carolina will have the majority of puck and shot based possession at 5v5 against NYR. The Rangers had a first round low 20 scoring chances/60 vs WSH in the first round. The Hurricanes only gave up 21 scoring chances per hour against NYI. New York might not generate a lot, but can they break through when they earn the chances? The degree to which they can or can’t could ultimately determine the outcome of the series.

Prediction: Hurricanes in 7. The heavier statistical models will favor Carolina to clear the Rangers a little easier, but the Hurricanes don’t often win in the postseason without struggling to get by their opposition (last round was the first non-bubble series they’ve won in less than six games since 2019). The Rangers are not to be under-estimated as a skilled team with a great goalie and home ice, and while much has changed in two years, NYR did defeat Carolina in seven games back in 2022.

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Over in the Atlantic Division, the Boston Bruins survived Toronto in OT of Game 7 to move on to face the Florida Panthers. This sets up a rematch of last year’s stunning first round matchup where the highly favored Bruins got dumped by the Panthers in seven games — leading to Florida’s rise to become one of the top teams in the league over the last 12 months.

The Panthers are rested having not played since April 29th, and hitting their groove. They made it look as easy as it gets in the NHL postseason to dispatch Tampa in five games in the first round.

Boston made it to the second round by getting through close games, two of their seven went to OT. Jeremy Swayman has finally ended the long-running goalie switching by stepping up to the point he can’t be benched (4-2, .950 save%) while only surrendering nine total goals over the six playoff games he’s appeared in.

Florida’s challenge will be whether or not they can overwhelm that tight Bruins defensive structure and open up the games with their speed and skill. At this point, it looks like a promising proposition for the team that scored 20 goals in just five games in the first round. It will be a task that Boston should be up for after finding ways to knock Toronto off their offensive game.

What has gone somewhat unnoticed is that the Panthers themselves have turned into a quality defensive team and should be balanced enough to play the “playoff style hockey” that Boston will present to them.

Biggest key: Battle of the goalies. Swayman has been awesome, and if a goalie keeps playing like he has with a .950 save%, 1.49 GAA and saving more than one goal per game above expectation, his team isn’t going to lose that often. Sergei Bobrovsky doesn’t have a sterling stat-line so far due to a stinker game of allowing six goals, but he has a Marc-Andre Fleury 2009 thing going on for where he is really god the games he is good in, surrounded by the off nights. He’s been consistent in the playoffs in Florida to give them about 60% quality starts (a strong figure) but will the off nights be plentiful and enough for the Bruins t make a series out of? That could be the deciding factor, especially if Swayman can keep dealing close to the level he’s been playing at.

Prediction: Panthers in 5. This might be too reflexive for recency, but Florida has been taking off like a rocket, and Boston is probably lucky to be here based on Toronto once again finding a way to squander their postseason chances. It might be a big ask for the Panthers to score four goals per game, but with the way they’ve been playing they should have all the confidence that they’ve defeated Boston last spring and should be primed to do it again this time around.