Norway Ends Its Holiday From History
There was a time when Norway felt the Russian threat more acutely than most and shelled out large sums to keep the bear at bay.
That was the 1960s when the country spent a very significant 3.6% of GDP on defense. By 2014, during Europe’s so-called holiday from history, this had fallen by more than half to 1.4%. This was well below the NATO target of 2% and enough to make US politicians like former President Trump very angry.
Norway has woken up. In what the government termed a historic announcement in April, plans were laid out to more than double spending over the next 11 years. By 2030, outlays will have increased to 2.68% of GDP, more than the 2.5% share proposed in the UK’s new spending pledge, also announced in April.
The Norwegian Defence Pledge resulted from a realization that “Norway is insufficiently prepared to handle both current security challenges and the emerging security landscape,” the document stated.
The country will now strengthen its defenses through one of its most ambitious investments in decades, something that has not been seen for decades and that strongly resembles the Cold War days.
Central to the new pledge is the revamping of its maritime and naval capabilities.
Russia’s Murmansk-based Northern Fleet has received increased attention over the last few years, keeping the focus on its submarine fleet with a constant flow of new units. In 2024 alone, the fleet received the Yasen-class guided missile submarine (SSGN) Krasnoyarsk and the Borei-class ballistic missile sub (SSBN) Tsar Alexander III, both transferred from the Pacific Fleet, and the Borei A-class SSBN Prince Pozharsky, as well as the Lada-class diesel-electric (SSK) vessel Kronstadt.
As a result, the new defense pledge has a strong focus on Norway’s naval capabilities. According to Norway’s Navy Chief, Rear Admiral Oliver Berdal: “The fleet will be modernized and renewed, increasing the number of vessels. This will enhance the presence along the world’s second longest coastline and in the large and important nearby ocean areas.”
Pivotal to the new plan for the navy is the acquisition of “a minimum of five blue water frigates capable of contributing to the full spectrum of maritime operations,” and four new Type 212CD SSK submarines currently under development with Germany (the government may acquire at least one additional unit). These will constitute the core of its surface and submarine fleets.
To complement them, they will also seek to procure a new class of medium-size and large-size vessels (18 and 10 of each, respectively) with modular weapon and sensor systems for the Navy and the Coast Guard, as well as new anti-submarine (ASW) helicopters to operate from the frigates.
The latter, together with their future submarines, will provide enhanced and much-needed ASW capabilities, NATO’s most costly and most neglected naval capability since the end of the Cold War.
To strengthen its situational awareness and maritime patrol capabilities, Norway will also procure long-range drones capable of monitoring maritime areas of interest from a new Arctic base being established in Andøya.
While this spending splurge will reach levels last seen during the Cold War, there is a recognition that things were far from rosy at the end of that period.
During the late Cold War years, Norway was considered to have “key weaknesses in ground-based air defenses, fighter and reconnaissance aircraft, and ammunition stockpiles.” The plans state all these areas need to be properly addressed in the new defense pledge.
The Nordic country will seek to acquire four new NASAMS medium-range air defense systems and new radars for the army and air force. With them, “stocks of munitions, spare parts, fuel, and equipment will be rapidly increased” to enhance the ability to receive allied reinforcements during a crisis or war.
They will also seek to strengthen four additional support areas: boosting personnel and skills, faster acquisitions, buildings and property, and climate, innovation, and research.
To allow for all the above-described investments, the government plans to have defense spending of 3% by 2036.
Over the past decade, Russia has been gradually strengthening its military posture in the High North, with a strong emphasis on its maritime surveillance and naval capabilities.
It has become more openly assertive and even provocative toward Norway, with concerns around the northern archipelago of Svalbard (previously known as Spitsbergen) in the High North. Russia’s top official there led a group of civilian vessels covered in Russian flags on a tribute to the country’s Navy Day, and the Russian Orthodox bishop erected a giant cross. Norway’s permission was not sought.
Norway’s build-up is being matched by rising spending from Nordic neighbors Finland and Sweden, which recently joined NATO. Sweden’s Parliamentary Defense Committee has also presented a proposal to increase its navy’s capabilities, providing further evidence of the new strategic reality in the High North. Ultimately, these growing capabilities should make the alliance’s Northern Flank a tough nut to crack.
Norway’s new defense pledge sets a positive example at a time when “the alliance and its navies are entering a period of much-need revitalization.” It encourages other European navies to follow suit and develop the necessary capabilities for high-intensity warfare, and prepare their military postures for the return of great power competition.
Gonzalo Vázquez is a junior analyst with the Center for Naval Thought at the Spanish Naval War College. He has previously worked as an Intern at the NATO Crisis Management & Disaster Response Center of Excellence in Bulgaria.
The views expressed are his own.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
The post Norway Ends Its Holiday From History appeared first on CEPA.