Failure to Launch: Mariners at Astros Series Preview
The Mariners head to Houston to face the last-place Astros.
You’re probably familiar by now with the struggles the Astros have faced so far in 2024, but let’s recap: they have already been swept four times this season, by the Yankees, Royals, Braves, and Cubs. However, when they’re not getting swept, the Astros have actually won their five other series, and split one against Texas, who they’ve already played twice this season. Oh yeah, also they have a no-hitter on the books despite the rotation suffering a rash of injuries. The Astros have really turned it on of late, though; they’ve gotten some key pieces to their rotation back, and are winners of four of their last five, bolstered largely by trouncing the hapless Rockies in Mexico City, but they also took a series from the division-leading Guardians. It’s a weird start for the perennial AL West powerhouse, and as we say around here, we’ll believe the Astros are dead when we see proof of the body — although, as Mariners fans know well, the deeper the early-season hole, the harder it is to dig out of later in the season.
(Note: with a month of the season past already, I’ll be using 2024 stats where appropriate throughout this preview.)
Oh no I hope no one shows Logan-slash-Walter this table that shows his start has the lowest projected win percentage via FanGraphs. Ditto for George Kirby and Bryce Miller, though, for real.
While the Mariners’s sleepy offense has been propped up by their historic run of starting pitching, the Astros’ uncharacteristically shaky starting pitching has been propped up by their good-as-usual offense. However, the Astros now have Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez back in the fold, so that starting pitching — which currently ranks 23rd by fWAR in MLB, unheard of depths for the bullies of the AL West — should start to stabilize. The Astros also recently optioned Jose Abreu, off to an absolutely dreadful start to the year, to their complex in Florida to try to solve whatever issue it is that has him hitting not just below the Mendoza line, but below .100.
One of the biggest problems for Houston has been the bullpen, traditionally a strength for the Astros and something they spent big money on upgrading this offseason by signing Josh Hader. Hader has struggled, and the bullpen has been the sixth-worst in the league by fWAR, down with the likes of Colorado’s and San Francisco’s. The Houston bullpen has seven blown saves already, tied for third-most in MLB, and that problem isn’t going to get a major infusion of new help anytime soon. (In case you were wondering, the Mariners bullpen has blown one (1) save, tied with Toronto for fewest in MLB this season.)
The Astros’ lineup is performing basically like you’d expect from the Houston Hit Factory, with one glaring exception: Alex Bregman is suffering the worst start to a season he’s ever had in his career, with a complete power outage. He’s still displaying his excellent plate discipline, but he’s pounding the ball into the ground at an alarming rate. The other underperforming member of the lineup, Jose Abreu, has been booted to Florida to try to get right, allowing the Astros to call up top prospect Joey Loperfido. Loperfido has hit well for power in the offensive-friendly confines of Corpus Christi and Sugar Land, but struggled with strikeouts in the upper minors, especially in Triple-A. As a group, this is still an above-average squad for hitting; while the Mariners are the easiest team to strike out in baseball, Houston is the hardest. It feels like there has to be some regression for this offense, which somehow has a -16 run differential despite posting solid numbers up and down the lineup. But that depends heavily on their pitching overcoming some early season injuries, slow starts, and ineffectiveness, especially in the bullpen.
Probable Pitchers
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Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images
Ronel Blanco has been one of the lone bright spots for the Astros this season. He spun a no-hitter in his first start of the season — and just the eighth big league start of his career — and then followed it up with another 5.2 innings of no-hit ball in his next start. A late-bloomer for the Astros, he only returned to the starting rotation last year after spending the majority of his minor league career pitching out of the bullpen. The biggest difference for him this year is a changeup that’s decimating hitters. His fastball is only okay — he can locate it at the top of the zone really well but it doesn’t have a standout shape — and his cutter/slider is decent.
A minor elbow injury cost Framber Valdez a couple of weeks of the first month of the season. He returned last weekend to pitch in the Mexico City series against the Rockies and acquitted himself well in the thin air. Valdez wasn’t quite as good last year as he was in his huge 2022 breakout season. A new cutter really helped him down the stretch but that pitch has disappeared from his pitch mix this year. His two breaking balls are still fantastic and true plus plus pitches, but his arsenal needs something that sits between them and his 95 mph sinker.
Hunter Brown has been absolutely pummeled to start this season. He looked decent in his first start of the year against the Yankees, holding them to a single run in four innings, but he’s allowed 25 runs in the five starts since then including a nine-run disaster against the Royals on April 11. He doesn’t have pinpoint accuracy with his fastball, leading to far too many heaters left over the heart of the plate. He also doesn’t have as much confidence in his secondary offerings which means his pitch mix is extremely fastball heavy. That’s a pretty bad combination, and with all the bad batted ball luck, it has conspired to sink his season so far.
The Big Picture:
The Mariners maintain a whisper-thin lead in the AL West as the Rangers matched them blow-for-blow with series wins against the Reds and Nationals. Next up for Texas is a tough test against the red-hot Royals, and then the surprising A’s. The A’s, current holders of third (!) place in the AL West, get a blow against the Marlins before facing Texas. Meanwhile, the Astros and Angels are currently slugging it out for bottom billing in the AL West. However, the Angels won just one of their last five games, saw Mike Trout placed on the IL, and now have to face a very good Guardians squad, so things are looking pretty grim for the Halos.