Emmy Experts Typing: Could ‘Fallout’ come out on top in Best Drama Series?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we take another gander at the wide-open drama races.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re back to our favorite 2024 Emmys genre: drama! I kid, of course, but there is something still dramatic about this year’s drama categories – even as we (I) wait with bated breath to see which limited series blinks and joins the party in these final days, pre-printed FYC ads be damned. For now, we’re all operating on the idea that “The Crown” is the favorite here, but that feels like it’s operating on more vibes than reality. The final season of the Emmy Award-winning series was certainly better received than its preceding season… but it was a far cry from the sweeping fourth season. Maybe that doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things, considering its top competitors — at least from the vantage point of my keyboard — are Season 3 of “The Morning Show” and Season 1 of “Fallout.” In terms of the former, we know the actors love it but the academy less so. This would be its first series nomination, and while I’m here for it since the third season was soapy and entertaining, I’m not sure it feels like an Emmy winner. Then there’s “Fallout,” an untested series that many have pegged as another “The Mandalorian” but maybe with a couple of the acting nominations pulled in by “The Last of Us.” But what if “Fallout” can do what those shows, so far, couldn’t: win Best Drama Series? You’ll be shocked to know I’ve moved “Fallout” to the top of my predictions based not just on its blockbuster viewership numbers — as inscrutable and phony as those numbers might be — but just general conversations. People do seem to love this show, especially once they get into the mystery and conspiracy. In lieu of shows with tremendous passion, might the interest in “Fallout” be enough to push it to the top of the ballots over the mid final season of a past winner and a bonkers third season of a never-nominee? Joyce, have I been “Fallout”-pilled or does this crackpot theory hold water?

joyceeng: I think you’re primarily looking for reasons not to have “The Crown” in the top spot. First, it was “The Morning Show.” Now it’s “Fallout.” What’s next? I very much enjoyed “Fallout” and have always had it in my series lineup, way before I watched it. Its viewership numbers are hardly surprising, regardless of how spun and self-serving for Amazon they are — like, did anyone expect it not to do well? It would’ve been breaking news had it flopped. But since you brought up vibes, I don’t think the vibes are fully there yet for “Fallout” to take it. While it seemingly has a lotta views, it feels like its audience demographic is very specific rather than broad (even though the show itself is not impenetrable). You can kinda tell by the type of conversation around it, which is obviously a totally amorphous thing, but for like two weeks after “Fallout” premiered, a lot of the discourse was about how it should not have been a binge drop instead of it being a passionate discussion about the season or Season 2 theories or just memes upon memes upon memes. I feel like there’s more passion for “Challengers” from the gen pop than there is for “Fallout.” “Squid Game” has viewership numbers that dwarf that of “Fallout’s” and was watched and loved by the general public of all ages and demos. It won two above-the-line Emmys and was probably runner-up in series to “Succession.” No show is “Succession” this year, of course, but I don’t think “Fallout” is “Squid Game” either or even “The Last of Us,” which is much more character-driven and had time to build buzz and momentum and generate memes as it aired from January to March last year. I’m not saying “Fallout” can’t win — and it would be a cool winner — but I can’t go there yet on May 3, 2024, with the data that we have. We know it’ll dominate below-the-line categories, but I’d need to see it over-perform in nominations first. The acting categories are still a bit of a question mark. I would not be surprised if its main three cast members got in or if they all missed (with maybe its sole acting nom coming in guest actor for Michael Emerson). It could also wind up performing similar to Jonathan Nolan and Lisa Joy‘s previous show, “Westworld,” with noms in all the right places (is Walton Goggins Anthony Hopkins?) but comes up short.

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Christopher Rosen: OK, good points. But then what is going to win? I guess we can’t know on May 3, but I would be shocked if “The Crown” just shrugs its way to a series win. You mentioned Goggins and let’s look at that category. I’ve got Gary Oldman farting his way to an Emmy win for “Slow Horses,” and I could see the argument for Dominic West as well. In an ideal world, my buddy Donald Glover would go all the way for “Mr. & Mrs. Smith,” and while I’m fairly confident he’ll get nominated, I can’t say I’m super confident either. Then there’s Colin Farrell, who [BIG SPOILER ALERT] is an alien private detective on “Sugar”? That show’s big reveal came this week after being teased in dumbfounded reviews for weeks. It doesn’t feel like ‘Sugar” has broken through — maybe that’s because it’s another finely produced little-seen Apple show — but everyone loves Colin Farrell and in a year where there are a lot of open spots, does that goodwill lend itself to him getting nominated? He’s definitely the best part of “Sugar” so I could see it — even if I have another Apple leading man, de facto SAG Awards host Idris Elba, getting in for “Hijack,” the more entertaining of the Apple dad dramas. Where are you on Farrell this year?

joyceeng: No offense to Colin, a fellow Gemini I love dearly, but I haven’t thought about him for a second since I dropped him for Goggins after the latter went lead. I was never super serious about his nom chances anyway (again, no offense) — I just needed to fill out the category, so why the hell not add him in February? As you know, I was absolutely tickled by the “Sugar” twist — just hilariously unserious. More shows should be weird. “Sugar” has been quiet since it premiered a month ago and I’m not sure if this week’s Big Reveal will entice people to start watching it. Upon request, I’ve told several people what the twist was the past few weeks and most of them were like, “That’s stupid,” and had no interest in watching (not that they did in the first place). While there are spots up for grabs, Apple might just wanna focus on Oldman, who could actually win. You questioned “Slow Horses'” standing in general last week. Days later, it won two BAFTA TV Awards for sound and editing. This follows its ACE Eddie nomination, second straight USC Scripter win and Oldman’s Golden Globe nomination. It’s definitely a show people are catching up on and has good word of mouth. West should be able to get in, just with the nature of the field, but I LOL’d when he told The Times last month that he and his wife agree that he’s better in blue-collar roles than bougie roles. A reverse psychology campaign? Love to see it. How about his co-star, the queen herself, Imelda Staunton? She was the big snub in Best Drama Actress last year, losing out on a spot to Elisabeth Moss, who nabbed “The Handmaid’s Tale’s” sole bid as it cratered from 21 nominations (yikes). Again, with the state of the field, Staunton should be OK for a nom, but how about a win? Claire Foy and Olivia Colman both won for their second and final seasons as Queen Elizabeth, but they also weren’t snubbed for their debut seasons and their four seasons combined were better received than Staunton’s.

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Christopher Rosen: I could definitely see her winning, especially because like the lead actor category, nothing would really surprise me. I think there’s an online push for Emma Stone to win, but that would be pretty surprising — even thoughI have her in first lol. In Staunton’s favor is that she’s really good in the final episodes and fully centered in the narrative in the back half of the season. I haven’t mentioned Jennifer Aniston or Reese Witherspoon, and while I’d love to see it for the goof, I wouldn’t bet on it. I guess I’ll leave you with the last word for now on this category: any chance for an upset beyond the obvious top six?

joyceeng: Half of the people in the top six don’t feel secure, so yes. I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss an Aniston victory. She is the only contender who is coming in with a SAG nomination under her belt. Witherspoon was SAG-nominated for Season 2 alongside Aniston and went on to get the Emmy nomination over Aniston, while Staunton has the dubious distinction of being the only Queen Elizabeth portrayer not to be individually nominated by SAG (Foy, of course, won back-to-back SAG Awards and Colman was nominated for both her seasons). It would probably be a different story if SAG had lead and supporting TV categories, but Elizabeth Debicki has been “The Crown’s” SAG representative for the final two seasons and pulled off the upset in February. Aniston also won SAG in 2020, but Zendaya blocked her from the Emmy win, and there is no Zendaya this year. The joke is that Aniston and Witherspoon have never been nominated together at the Emmys, but it’s really difficult to see that happening again with the lack of competition. The third time ought to be the charm for the Green sisters.

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