Royals Rumblings - News for May 3, 2024

It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood

Anne Rogers profiled how James McArthur got to where he is now as the Royals closer:

“There’s a reason he’s on the waiver wire, but is there something we can do to help?” pitching coach Brian Sweeney said. “We saw some reliever mentality. Seeing his breaking ball, we thought it was a good one. But we thought he was missing a slider. And we said, ‘We can help this guy.’”

It was the first year general manager J.J. Picollo had more voices weighing in on these types of decisions, and the scouting and data reports matched up with what the coaches were saying. For four days until the trade was made, all he heard was excitement from the staff to bring McArthur into the organization.

Jaylon Thompson writes about how Kyle Wright should join the Royals rotation next year to make it even better:

Royals starters have been dominant. Veteran newcomers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have reshaped the starting rotation alongside Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Alec Marsh. The group has made it a priority to watch bullpens together. They also discuss every start in the dugout.

Wright is there in the dugout offering input and encouragement. In a spare moment, he visualizes the chance he can get on the field again. And it keeps him going.

“That is what keeps me sane a little bit,” Wright said. “It’s just looking forward to getting back on the mound and starting to get back to being a full-time baseball player again.”

Just because we have to, KMBC’s Brian Johnson talked to a tax expert about Kansas’s proposed STAR bonds:

An expert on this topic said two new stadiums will cost $250 million a year to pay the debt, but their sales tax will generate roughly a third of that, and ultimately, the state’s general fund is on the line. Dr. Geoffrey Propheter literally wrote the book on major league sports and stadium funding.

“Even if you include concerts, roughly ten concerts a year, only get you about a third of the way,” Propheter said. Under that scenario, taxpayers would have to pay the remaining $160 million yearly, roughly $64 per person on a good year...

“Using the sales tax as a vehicle for these billion-dollar capital projects,” said Dr. Geoffrey Propheter, associate professor of public affairs for the University of Colorado-Denver. “It’s super risky. In this case, it’s primarily going to be Kansas State taxpayers.”

And, with that, we’re out of “official” stories for the Royals so I’m going to include a hodgepodge of MLB stories that are tangentially related to the Royals or something I just wanted to put here.

Let’s start with a classic listicle. MLB Pipeline lists the “hottest hitting prospect in each organization”:

Royals: Carter Jensen, C (No. 10)

The 20-year-old catcher’s ability to work a walk defined his success through the first three years of his pro career, and that’s certainly continued in his return to High-A Quad Cities, where he has a 22.0 percent walk rate and .490 OBP through 22 games. But he’s also hitting for average (.338) and power (.506 SLG) while cutting down his K’s to a career-low 19.0 percent. Jensen turned 18 the same month he was drafted in 2021 and catchers can have a long developmental path anyway, so this might be the season when his offensive side clicks into place.

In another MLB.com listicle, Royals show up on the Hitter Power Rankings:

8. Salvador Perez, Royals (not ranked) It’s nice to see a veteran turn back the clock, and that’s what Perez is doing so far in 2024, leading the AL with a .355 batting average and 26 RBIs in his age-34 season. The eight-time All-Star catcher has taken a beating over his career behind the plate, something that has hurt his performance with the bat at times. But right now, he looks rejuvenated as one of the leaders of a surprising Royals team.

Others receiving votes: Freddie Freeman (Dodgers), Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals), Kyle Tucker (Astros), CJ Abrams (Nationals), Riley Greene (Tigers), Adolis García (Rangers), Trea Turner (Phillies)

One more? How about a mock draft from Jonathan Mayo:

6. Royals:  Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep, Miss. (No. 9)

This seems like the first spot a high schooler could go, and new scouting director Brian Bridges does like prep bats. Griffin has perhaps the best all-around tools in the class and if there weren’t some small questions about his hit tool, he might be in the 1-1 conversation.

Yahoo’s Russell Dorsey takes a look at the AL Central, which is, check notes, “one of MLB’s most competitive divisions”. That can’t be right, but somehow it is. I mean, we all hoped it would be a mediocre division where, if the Royals somehow got to 6 games above .500, they’d be in contention for the division. We just didn’t expect that “6 games above .500” mark would be by May 2nd and still wouldn’t have them in first. The AL Central somehow boasts the 1st, 4th, 5th, and 6th best records in the AL.

The question for Kansas City in May and the remainder of the season will be whether they can find enough ways to score runs outside of heroics from catcher Salvador Perez and superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Thus far, Perez and Witt are the only Royals with an OPS over .750, and the team ranks 21st in OPS and 24th in OBP.

Of course, the division-rival Guardians have shown in recent years that it’s possible for strong pitching to carry a light-hitting offense into October. But if that pitching ever falters, it can be catastrophic. As such, it’s clear the Royals need more consistent offense to stay competitive in this division. Maybe that comes from slugging first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino getting hot after a slow first month. If not, it could mean a lot more close, low-scoring losses.

Can we talk for a second about how BS it is that the Dodgers can take Mookie Betts, move him to middle infield at age 30, and he’s awesome there? In his age 31, he’s worth 3.2 bWAR/2.9 fWAR barely a month into the season. There’s something just messed up about that. And now all of CBS’s writers can’t help but fall all over themselves, gushing about how he’s the best SS in the game:

Matt Snyder: Yeah, I have to agree with R.J. It’s such a cheat code to be able to move the best right fielder in baseball to second base and then in the middle of spring training declare him the shortstop and THEN have him play the way he has at short. It’s just laughable. He’d win MLB MVP right now if there were such a thing.

If we were able to remove Mookie from this, I think it would be a really fun argument between Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt, Jr. while having room to discuss when we could loop in Elly De La Cruz and also not dismissing the holdover stud Corey Seager after one rough month.

The Royals just left Toronto, where Julia Kreuz wrote about Don Mattingly and “Homer at the Bat”:

Don Mattingly has never watched that episode of The Simpsons.

He’s still having fun with it, though, autographing Simpsons-style images of himself and hearing strangers of all ages tell him that he needs to get rid of those sideburns. It’s been 32 years since the airing of “Homer at the Bat,” a classic episode of the beloved animation that turned Mattingly into a pop-culture icon in addition to baseball great.

“[It’s come back] more lately, and it’s almost like it’s never going away,” Mattingly said with a laugh from the Blue Jays’ dugout at Rogers Centre on Tuesday. “It’s kind of fun, because I’ve never really seen that full episode. People are always amazed that I’ve never seen it.”

And the Royals, um, hit home runs? That’s all I got to loosely tie this one back to Kansas City. At Fangraphs, Jay Jaffe does a deep dive into home run rates and how early season HR numbers are quite low:

That goes doubly given that through the end of April, league-wide home run rates were down more than 15% relative to last season. Where in 2023 teams averaged 1.21 home runs per game, through the end of April they had averaged just 1.02 homers per game. Note that we’re still early enough in the season that a single day’s slate of games can bump that last decimal in one direction or another; with 20 homers in 30 team-games on May 1, the season-to-date average fell from 1.018 homers per game to 1.007. All of which is to say that while the situation deserves a closer look — particularly with league-wide scoring having decreased from last year — this should be considered a preliminary investigation.

If the home run rate from this March and April holds up — and hereafter, I’m going to lump all games before May 1 into what we consider April, just as we do in our splits — it would represent the largest year-to-year drop since 1987–88, when the per-game rate fell from 1.06 homers per game to 0.76. If you’ve been following along with home run history, you know that the 1987 season was an outlier that marked the first time home run rates rose above 1.0 per game. While rates immediately fell back below that threshold and remained there through the next half-decade, that season served as a preview of what was to come from 1994–2009, when home run rates were above that threshold every year, likely due to a confluence of factors that ranged from expansion and newer ballparks to the widespread use of performance-enhancing drugs and changes to the baseball itself.

At Inside the Crown ($), David Lesky wrote about Seth Lugo:

The 2023/2024 offseason saw 12 pitchers, not including Shohei Ohtani, sign for at least $30 million in total value. That ranged from $10 million per year for Reynaldo Lopez to $31 million per year for Blake Snell. Right in the middle of all of it was Seth Lugo, who signed for $45 million over three years with an AAV of $15 million. There have been some incredible performances from that group of 12, so I’m not going to say that Lugo has been the best value of the group, but I don’t think anyone would have predicted that he would be putting up numbers that were as good or better than some of the better pitchers in all of baseball as he has...

The Royals offense has now been a bit on the struggle bus for 19 games. Maybe if it’s that long and that much of the season, it’s just who they are. Whatever the case may be, they’re now 10-9 in those 19 games and they’ve averaged exactly four runs per game. In these 19 games, they’ve scored exactly one run four times (and they’ve been shut out once) and they’ve scored five or more runs seven times. When they score more than one run in this stretch, they’re 10-4. This team with this pitching and this defense doesn’t need a ton in the way of runs. They do need a few. And when they do, we usually end up reading about a win on Inside the Crown the next day.

Craig Brown also wrote about the Wednesday’s game at Into the Fountains:

Is there anything better than taking the season series from the Blue Jays? I’ll answer for you: No. No there isn’t anything better than taking the season series from the Blue Jays. Not when you hold them to two runs over the final two games, including a 6-1 victory on Wednesday...

The Royals are 19-13, two games back of the Guardians in the Central. Their run differential of +50 is the best in the majors. And they’re playing some fun baseball. As we are now into May, I don’t think we could’ve asked for anything more from this team at this point.

Blog roundup:

• Darin Watson at ULT: This Date In Royals History—1984 Edition: May 2: An incredible seventh rainout of the season for the Royals.
• Jacob Milham at KOK: What KC Royals trends you should believe, not believe after MLB’s first month
• Jacob Milham at KOK (redux): KC Royals hoping Michael Massey’s Toronto trip translates to more success
• Kyle Jones at FTF: Lugo And Massey Lead Royals To Series Win In Toronto
• Patrick Glancy at Powder Blue Nostalgia: The Bar: Hopefully, I’m not lowering it
• Patrick Glancy at Powder Blue Nostalgia (last week, but not linked): Some Royals Ramblings
• Hunter Samuels at Swinging Bunts: How I Spent My Spring Sabbatical

Remember when I mentioned a month ago that I’m one of those people who subscribes to a streaming service, catches up on all I missed, and then drop it for another one? These are the movies we watched from Disney+ (ok, except a couple of them) over the past couple of months before cancelling. Ed note: We cancelled Disney+ back in March but I just got around to posting this today.

Turning Red (2022) - Thankfully, it wasn’t from the recent pattern of Pixar movies of “he’s one way, she’s another, they have to tone each other down and go on a quest”. There’s a little bit of cringe, but not much considering the topics of the film, and it drags ever so slightly in the middle when Mei is out rebelling. It’s also a little cliché with the Tiger Mom generational trauma. But those are all the things it’s not or where it falls short. It’s a quality compact family drama with a fun, underused setting (early 2000s and Toronto). Mei’s friends are just the best: are there any groups of 13yos that nice and supportive? And the main premise is simple, but effective, even if Mei can be grating at times. I’m going to have to rewatch a time or two before I can decide where to put it in the Pixar pantheon. It feels mid-tier, which is a compliment, considering how hard it is to be mid-tier at Pixar as they’ve made so many good movies.

Elemental (2023) - ”He’s one way, she’s another, they have to tone each other down and go on a quest”? Yeah, that’s this movie. It is really hamhanded and predictable: It’s not subtle at all. It tries to be earnest, tho, even if it’s clumsy as the director was clearly telling a personal immigrant story and maybe the truth got in the way of a better story. I guess we could call this Pixar’s first “conventional” romcom, if we’re fishing for positives. There were some tearjerker Pixar parts but felt more like a generic Illumination movie. Didn’t have high expectations going in and it was marginally better than that, but not much.

The Marvels (2023) - We’re reaching this post-Endgame point in the MCU where they can’t bank on everyone going to see all of the movies. However, reception for this one seems really divided between the disapproving mouth-breathers who talk derisively about the MSheU and poisoned the review well despite not having seen it, the people who saw it in theaters and were whelmed, and those who saw it after release and were pleasantly surprised. It did help to see Ms. Marvel and Secret Invasion ahead of time. But even without those, it was a mostly lighthearted buddy pic with low stakes, or as low as the MCU can get with. At worst, you could call it fluffy and forgettable, but that’s just fine for a Marvel movie that comes in at a svelte 105 minutes.

Chip ‘n Dale: Rescue Rangers (2022) - For the Disney Afternoon, I was a DuckTales kid whereas my wife was more into Rescue Rangers. I was rewarded with an amazing series reboot whereas we were worried about traumatizing her childhood here with how bad this movie looked. Instead, it splits the difference: it’s not nearly as bad as I was expecting, though I liked it more than my wife. It’s at least a half notch above the average soulless reboot because I feel like the writers actually watched the original and liked it. Along with that earnestness, it boasts a decent helping of wit and a satirical skewering of Hollywood. This has been done before and better, most notably in The Muppets (2011). Also, I can’t shake that this movie so badly wanted to be this generation’s Who Framed Roger Rabbit, but it just isn’t up to the task.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (2019) - When making a movie about Mr. Rogers, there had to be only one actor in the director’s mind. Sure, it’s hard to see Fred Rogers as anyone other than Fred Rogers or Tom Hanks as anyone but Tom Hanks at this point in his career. However, Tom-Hanks-as-Fred-Rogers delivers exactly what you want when you get past that jarring bit. The movie is slow and deliberate and everyone does their part, especially Matthew Rhys. The choice of making his Lloyd Vogel the main character, basing the movie off a real-life story, and reflecting Mr. Rogers onto that story is a curious choice but it really works. In the end, it was everything I wanted out of a Mr. Rogers movie: Sure, it makes you cry a time or two, but it just makes you feel and even think, a little.

The Black Hole (1979) - I’m not sure what to do with this movie. It wants to have the box office of recent smash Star Wars, attempts to be heady science fiction at times like a (simpler) Star Trek clone, but often just falls into melodrama and cliché. It also has dashes of 70s Doctor Who and the John Barry soundtrack has some of that slow 60s and 70s James Bond feel. But it never does any of them well and feels more like a jumbled mess. It’s not a bad movie, but it’s not really a good one, either.

The Royals aren’t in first, but they have the best run differential in baseball. That feels like a nice place to be for our first May Rumblings. It’s a beautiful day in the neighborhood: