The Royals offense is in a precarious place

They’re very top-heavy

When the Chicago White Sox were on route to a 3-22 start, their offense was truly hard to watch. The White Sox were held scoreless eight times in that stretch, and they were held to either one or two runs another seven times.

Kansas City Royals fans gleefully enjoyed the schadenfreude of watching the White Sox flounder at the plate so much. One big part of why they’ve been so is because they employ a lot of toothless hitters. Nicky Lopez, Paul DeJong, Kevin Pillar, and Martin Maldonado have been among the worst hitters at their respective positions over the last four or so years, and the White Sox employ all at once.

Another big part has been underperformance. Former Royal Andrew Benintendi has looked completely lost at the plate, as has former third overall pick Andrew Vaughn; the White Sox aren’t deep enough to weather such bad play. Finally, their top players—Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert Jr.—have only played a combined 18 games thanks to injuries.

Overall, the White Sox have a team wRC+ of 70. This is an astounding figure, as the team as a whole has been 30% worse than league average. Meanwhile, the Royals’ team wRC+ is 95, meaning that the Royals have been only about 5% worse than league average. A huge difference, right?

Technically, yes. But as I write this, 14 Royals have accrued at least 25 plate appearances. Only two have a wRC+ north of 100; a third, Vinnie Pasquantino, joined that group in the interim between when I started this piece and when I finished it.

Why does that matter? Well, there are more similarities between the Royals and the White Sox than I care to admit. Compare Benintendi and Hunter Renfroe; both are well-paid outfielders acquired in free agency who have struggled mightily and have a wRC+ in the 40s. Compare Vaughn and Vinnie Pasquantino, two sluggers whose middling offensive output over the last two years (93 wRC+ and 102 wRC+, respectively) who have therefore been hovering around replacement level. And, if we’re being honest, Garrett Hampson and Nicky Lopez have had remarkably similar offensive careers.

The one distinguishing factor between the White Sox and Royals has, thus far, been the brilliance of Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. Witt and Salvy are indeed the only two Royals with a markedly above average offensive line; fortunately, they’re running significantly above average.

I just worry that what we’re seeing in the White Sox is a glimpse into what could happen to the Royals if Witt or Salvy went down with an injury for an extended period of time. Robert’s absence has played a huge part of Chicago’s offensive woes, as he has shown to be an even better hitter than Witt over his career, and while one hitter doesn’t make the biggest difference in the world, it does matter—especially if the replacements are so much worse (and they are in Chicago).

Consider: Yes, I know that RBIs are a deeply flawed statistic, but Witt and Salvy have combined for nearly a third of the entire team’s RBIs. They also combine for nearly 30% of the team’s runs. That’s an awful lot of consolidation in a few players! That’s not ideal!

Furthermore, you can expect Witt and Perez to continue to fall further away from their hot start. Witt is good, but he doesn’t draw enough walks to maintain a wRC+ of 150. And Perez, well, Perez has always bucked the trends, but in the 21st century there have been only 23 qualified player-seasons that have maintained a wRC+ of 180 or better. That’s going to sharply decline.

And when that happens, where is the rest of the team making it up? Kyle Isbel, MJ Melendez, and Maikel Garcia are hitting right in line with their career averages. Renfroe won’t be this bad for this long, sure. Vinnie will likely be better, but how much better? The farm looks bleak, too. Tyler Gentry and Nick Pratto—the two most likely candidates from Omaha on the 40-man roster—have struggled mightily this year. There’s not a whole lot of skilled Double-A talent that is forcing their way up the farm, either.

Let’s be clear here: the Royals, even outside of Witt and Perez, are more talented offensively than the White Sox. The Royals, for instance, are one of the top three baserunning teams in baseball, which helps (and the White Sox, erm, are not). And unlike the White Sox, between Vinnie, MJ, and Maikel Garcia, the Royals have some young and promising talent with upside.

The Royals are also on a 94-win pace, which nobody expects them to continue for the rest of the season, so there’s plenty of reasonable negative regression that they can experience and still end up in the 80-85 win range, which would be a fantastic outcome for this year. But it’s at least interesting to me that I’m not very much worried about the pitching. It’s the hitting that makes me wonder.