How Can The Guardians Sustain Their Hot Start

Five ways to help the team maintain a good start to the season

The Guardians have had a great March-April, there’s no disputing that. But, as we take a look at the current state of affairs, what do they need to do to have a great May-October?

(Usual caveat that I am not claiming to know more than any Guardians front office member, coach or player).

1. Convince Jose Ramirez to Take More Pitches

Since leaving a part-time role in May of 2016, Jose Ramirez has not had a month with a lower walk-rate than his 3.3 BB% in March/April of 2024. He hasn’t had a month where his walk rate dipped below 5% until this one. A third of his walks have been of the intentional variety, as well and his chase rate is in the 9th percentile, which would be by far the lowest of his career. He is still an above average hitter against fastballs, so I don’t believe bat speed declines are quite at the point of forcing him to try to cheat to get to pitches more quickly (which is the number one sign of age decline I look for). He’s also still in the 90th percentile for whiff rate so he’s not striking out on the pitches he chases - he’s mostly making weak contact for easy outs when he swings at bad pitches.

If Jose is going to have another 5-6 win season, he is going to have to recognize which pitches are headed out of the zone and not swing at them. The good news is that I think he is still doing the first part of that task; he likely knows when pitches aren’t necessarily likely to hit the zone. He is just in perpetual swing mode, right now, and that is going to have to change if he’s going to get more pitches he can do damage on. I hope the team is reminding him that folks like Josh Naylor, David Fry and Andres Gimenez are capable of helping if he gets walked and that he needs to take the free base to help the team, and himself, achieve any goals this year. I’m sure Jose knows he needs to walk more, but I hope Stephen Vogt, Chris Valaika and others are taking an active role in encouraging him to pursue it as an active goal. It may help Jose’s mindset to get another reliable bat in the lineup, however, which brings me to my next point...

2. Trade Estevan Florial and Call-up Kyle Manzardo

The primary reason I was a fan of acquiring Estevan Florial was my assumption that he was potentially a viable candidate to play centerfield, as he had played there for the Yankees both in the majors and the minors. However, Florial has played only 9 innings in centerfield, 2 innings in left field and 30 innings in right field for the Guardians. He has had 9 games in the outfield and 8 games as either a DH or a pinch-hitter. He has even been replaced defensively in right-field by Will Brennan a handful of times.

Florial has a 120 wRC+ (good!) but a .246 xwOBA (bad!), he has an 11.5% walk-rate (good!) but a 40.4% strikeout rate (bad!), he has a .222 ISO (good!) but a 73.9% in-zone contact rate (bad!). If Florial isn’t seen as a reliable defender, he does not offer enough to be considered the team’s best option at DH, especially with Kyle Manzardo currently putting up eye-popping numbers at Columbus with a 136 wRC+, .276 ISO, 18.1/13.3 BB/K%, and a swinging strike rate only around 6%.

I also don’t oppose demoting Will Brennan to Columbus, should the Guardians make that choice. But, the questions about Florial as a hitter persist and the team’s preference for playing others in the field have pushed me to conclude he’s probably not a long-term fit to be the team’s rightfielder (and certainly not the centerfielder). One way or another, it’s simply time for Kyle Manzardo:

There will be some growing pains with Manzardo and challenges for Vogt trying to keep him in the lineup (essentially, he should get days off vs some LHP and/or for Jose’s DH game each week). I think Florial will be a decent bench bat for someone. But, now is the time to try to find the right fit for a trade for Florial for some mildly interesting prospect and get Manzardo on the team and cemented into the fifth spot in the lineup. The team traded a valuable (while oft-injured) starting pitching arm to get Manzardo. It’s time to start beginning the process of getting return on that investment.

Additionally, this should be the moment for Vogt to institute a pretty strict platoon of Will Brennan and Ramon Laureano in right field. If by somewhere in June or July Laureano hasn’t shown any signs of life, it’ll be time to get a look at Johnathan Rodriguez in that shortside platoon role.

3. Stop Trying to Steal Third Base

The Guardians rank 18th in Baserunning Runs Above Average this season with -0.2. Some of you may be smarter than I am and able to break this number down further, but I am going to guess, anecdotally, that is has something to do with making SEVERAL outs at third base this season on attempted steals. I am understanding of the occasional attempt to get from first to third on a single failing because you are forcing the outfielder to make a good throw, especially if the ball was hit to right field. But a steal of third base puts the catcher in great position to make a good throw. And, you have already established yourself in scoring position.

Vogt has said that the Guardians pretty much all have the green light unless a red light is explictly put up. There can be no more of things like Steven Kwan getting caught stealing third with Ramirez at the plate, or Josh Naylor getting caught stealing third, period. The stop sign needs to be put up for all attempted steals of third base unless the coaching staff has something specific on a given pitcher that will dramatically increase their odds of sucess in a given attempt.

4. Give the Best Bullpen Arms the Most Opportunities to Help

Soon, we will see Sam Hentges make it back to the Guardians’ roster. When that happens, I expect either Pedro Avila or Tyler Beede to find their way to the world of DFA’s, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if someone’s shoulder is sore and they end up on the IL with Eli Morgan. This is good, and I hope Vogt will be creative in getting each reliever the best matchup for their skillset rather than leaning on established inning roles.

Additionally, Franco Aleman has a 14.4 K/9 (4.5 BB/9) in Columbus. Andrew Walters has an 18.9 K/9 (2.7 BB/9) in Akron. I completely understand why both pitchers are still in the minors, but we are all aware of the Guardians’ struggles with the starting rotation. The only way to continue to maintain the current success will be to give the best bullpen arms in the organization the most opportunities to continue to get as many outs as possible. I believe the team needs to be preparing to get Aleman and Walters on the roster as soon as either or both is deemed ready to handle major league hitters.

5. Get More Length from Starting Pitching

This is obvious but the Guardians have to focus on throwing strikes and getting opposing hitters to put the ball in play, especially early in games, to help relieve the immense stress they are putting on their bullpen. I’ve been thrilled by Carlos Carrasco’s mini-renaissance, excited by Ben Lively’s reinvention, and encouraged by recent improvement from Triston McKenzie. All three need to find a way to make it into the sixth inning occasionally until the day that hopefully Gavin Williams is ready to take one of those spots so that the bullpen is not running on fumes in July. I heard Vogt and Carl Willis emphasize not letting the Braves hitters walk; this approach needs to be about more than just facing the best-hitting team in baseball. Teams need to hit their way on base to avoid Guardians’ pitchers making too many pitches. Logan Allen, this paragraph is also aimed at you.

Outside of this list, I hope the Guardians clubhouse continues to have fun and stay loose. It seems like the team has had a great spirit of camaraderie and humor so far this season. For the ineveitable tough spells in every season, it will be crucial to maintain this environment.