Series Preview: Guardians at Astros
Is the sleeping giant awake?
A team with an unexpectedly hot start will meet a team with an uncharacteristically slow start today in Houston, as the Guardians arrive to face the Astros.
At 19-9 with a +46 run differential, Cleveland sports a 106 wRC+, a 4.14 starting pitcher FIP, a 2.63 bullpen FIP and 5.3 Defensive WAR (sixth best in MLB). However, over the past three years, Cleveland is only 2-7 against Houston at MinuteMaid Park.
At 9-19 with a -22 run differential, Houston has a 116 wRC+, a 4.15 starting pitcher FIP, a 4.26 bullpen FIP and -5.4 Defensive WAR (19th in MLB). It’s been a very poor start to the year for a team that has been perpetually in the American League Championship Series, marked by injuries to key pieces like Framber Valdez and Christian Javier. The Astros woke up this weekend, destroying the Rockies in Mexico City. How much to read into that is tough to say given the elevation of Mexico City and the quality of pitching provided by, well, the Rockies.
Matchups:
Game 1: Carlos Carrasco, RHP (5.04 FIP) vs. Hunter Brown, RHP (5.48 FIP), 8:10PM EST.
Analysis: This series will be a chance for the three worst members, as far as fielding independent pitching metrics go, of the Guardians’ rotation to prove that they can do more than what they’ve shown so far. The best matchup for the Guardians is game one, and it would seem to be important to put an end to the Astros’ recent run of improved results and take the opener. Brown has struggled with all of his primary pitches (four-seamer, cutter, curveball, and slider), so it’s important that the Guardians’ horses - Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez - do some damage against him.
Carrasco needs to do the crafty vet thing and find a way to give his guys a chance to win and try not to deplete the bullpen in the series opener.
Game 2: Triston McKenzie, RHP(5.61 FIP) vs. Justin Verlander, RHP (3.45 FIP), 8:10PM EST
Analysis: One of these years, we won’t have to face the apparently ageless Verlander, but this is not that year. I have to admit that I was glad when Verlander signed with the Mets, but he WOULD end up back with the Astros because he’s like that, and he would be good into his 40’s because the baseball gods hate me. So far, in a handful of starts, teams have gotten to Verlander on his four-seamer a bit, but it’s still sitting 94 mph and his change, curve and slider have been effective. Brayan Rocchio has joined Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez in handling the slider above average; it would be nice to see the rookie get a big hit or two off this future hall of famer.
Meanwhile, it’s very important for McKenzie to build on some recent success and find a way to give the Guardians five strong innings. This game will be a great test as we enter the month of May to see what McKenzie can provide this team against good lineups.
Game 3: Logan Allen, LHP (5.14 FIP) vs. Spencer Arrighetti, RHP (3.81 FIP), 8:10PM EST
Analysis: Allen has frustrated me so far, with his strikeout rate falling by over one K per 9 and his walk rate and home run per fly ball rate holding steady at over 3 per 9 and near 15%, respectively. He’s going to be a fifth starter unless he can find a way to strikeout more batters, lower that walk rate to under 3 and reduce the number of gopherballs. Let’s see if he can do it against a tough lineup.
It will be important to show patience vs. Arrighetti who is walking nearly six batters per 9. Arrighetti will get swings and misses but has struggled immensely in commanding the offspeed and the breaking ball. On paper, this matchup looks like a slugfest.
It’s a little odd that Thursday isn’t a getaway game time, but hopefully the Guardians can find a way to win a series before getting to return to Progressive Field to face the Angels.