New poll shows Trump ahead of Biden in seven key swing states

(NEXSTAR) – Former President Donald Trump maintains a lead over President Biden in multiple key swing states, according to a new poll from Emerson College Polling and The Hill.

Voters favored the leading Republican candidate – who is currently balancing court and rally appearances – over Biden in Arizona (48% to 44%), Georgia (47% to 44%), Michigan (45% to 44%), Nevada (45% to 44%), North Carolina (47% to 42%), Pennsylvania (47% to 45%) and Wisconsin (47% to 45%).

The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 3%, did, however, find that Biden gained ground among some undecided voters.

“The state of the presidential election in swing states has remained relatively consistent since Emerson and The Hill started tracking them last November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling said in a news release, noting, “The share of undecided voters has reduced and Biden gained ground in Georgia and Nevada, narrowing the gap, while Trump has maintained a slight edge on Biden in the swing states.”

Kimball added that independent voters break for Biden over Trump in Georgia (42% to 38%) and Wisconsin (55% to 44%), while Trump holds an advantage in Arizona (48% to 38%), Michigan (44% to 35%), Nevada (43% to 37%), Pennsylvania (49% to 33%) and North Carolina (41% to 38%).

The poll also found that the addition of a third-party candidate would hurt Biden more than Trump, with the Scranton native losing a larger share of votes in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the two candidates take similar hits in Arizona and Michigan.

What about Trump's criminal trial?

With Trump on trial in New York City over allegations of hush money payoffs, the poll asked swing state voters which came closer to their opinion of the case – was the trial appropriate to hold the former president accountable, or a "witch hunt"?

In every swing state, more polled voters found the trial to be appropriate, with margins of 4% in Arizona, 7% in Georgia, 7% in Michigan, 11% in Nevada, 1% in North Carolina, 7% in Pennsylvania and 6% in Wisconsin.

If Trump should be convicted, in all swing states the largest group of voters said it would have no impact on the likelihood of supporting him for president in 2023, with a majority of Republicans saying it would make them more likely to vote for him. Fifteen percent of Republican voters in Pennsylvania said a guilty ruling would make them less likely to support Trump, followed by 13% in Arizona, 11% in Wisconsin, 10% in Michigan and 9% in Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.

Among independent voters this is how a guilty verdict would affect their likelihood of supporting Trump, the poll found:

• AZ: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
• GA: 26% more likely, 32% less likely, 42% no impact
• MI: 26% more likely, 30% less likely, 45% no impact
• NC: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
• NV: 25% more likely, 32% less likely, 43% no impact
• PA: 31% more likely, 24% less likely, 45% no impact
• WI: 24% more likely, 30% less likely, 47% no impact

Swing states and the Senate

While the approval rating for President Biden didn't reach 42% in any of the swing states – Pennsylvania saw the highest at 41%, with North Carolina voters delivering the lowest at 37% – the Democratic Party edged out Republicans in five U.S. Senate races, the poll found.

One closely watched race will play out in Arizona to see who succeeds Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who declined to run for a second term. While the poll finds Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego ahead with 45% of the hypothetical vote, Republican front-runner Kari Lake has gained 4 percentage points over the last three months and now trails by 2%.

In Pennsylvania, David McCormick hopes to unseat the incumbent, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. The latest poll numbers show a 4% lead for Casey (46% to 42%) with 12% undecided.

In Wisconsin, a banker and businessman with ties to Southern California, Eric Hovde, hopes to steal the seat from Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin but currently trails 46% to 43% in the polls.

Eyes will also be on the race in Michigan, where polled voters favor Dem. Elissa Slotkin (42%) over GOP challenger Mike Rogers (40%).

In Nevada, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has a sizable lead among polled voters whether she faces Rep. Sam Brown (45% to 37%) or Jeff Gunter (47% to 33%).

The Democrats are currently clinging to a 51-49 majority in the Senate and the GOP has good reasons to be optimistic.

With West Virginia most likely flipping to red in the wake of Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin's retirement – Republicans will only need to flip one other state to control the Senate if their candidate is re-elected to The White House.