Why the Falcons drafting Michael Penix Jr. can work
By drafting Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in the 2024 NFL Draft last week, the Atlanta Falcons confounded the football world with one of the most shocking draft moves in recent memory.
Taking Penix with the eighth-overall pick a little more than a month after signing veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a major contract to presumably be the team’s starter for the next few years does not immediately compute when looking at how the NFL traditionally goes about asset management.
As much as the Falcons have deferred to the Green Bay Packers model in how that team drafts quarterback successors, nothing has quite played out like this exact quarterback situation in the modern NFL. Usually, teams choose between the established (and pricy) veteran or the high-drafted rookie in a single offseason, not both.
However, it can work for Atlanta. It takes a ton of confidence in your ability to maximize your roster and coaching staff without maximizing all possible resources made available to you, but it can work.
Lon Horwedel/USA TODAY Sports
The Falcons are clearly banking on one draft pick and/or every single dollar in cap space not making or breaking its ability to win instantly and in the long run. The team also clearly feels comfortable with Penix’s lengthy injury history and thinks the rookie is best suited for time spent developing in the background as Cousins gives it the best chance to win right now.
It’s having your cake and eating it, too. They want the instant perk of simply having a good quarterback right now and the possible peace of mind of having a good quarterback waiting for them when the veteran’s time is done. It’s up to the Falcons to prove their thinking is sound on the field.
It’s not as instantly aggressive as it is pragmatic, and it doesn’t follow the blueprint most teams use to win a Super Bowl because of the perks you get from either going all-in on a veteran or spending on the cap with a rookie quarterback contract.
But adding two meaningful options at quarterback with different timelines does hypothetically give you the best chance at long-term stability, which might be the right move for a franchise that hasn’t been to the playoffs since the 2017 season and hasn’t been able to meaningfully replace its best quarterback ever in Matt Ryan.
That’s basically the mandate the franchise has. Falcons owner Arthur Blank said he wants a long-term solution at quarterback. Cousins will be 36 this fall. As intriguing as he will be in the short-term, he does not present a long-term option. However, Penix does if he pans out.
Trevor Ruszkowski/USA TODAY Sports
Technically, if you think it’s possible to both meaningfully contend for a title and set yourself up for the future in the same offseason after years of struggle and irrelevance, this is how you would do it. If Penix is who the Falcons clearly believe him to be, it’s more likely that he’ll be the one to get the franchise to the promised land than Cousins with his untapped potential.
However, it’s more likely that Cousins is the quarterback right now to establish a winning culture and get the team to the playoffs right away. Letting Cousins lead the team for two or three seasons and developing Penix in the background could pay off in a grand way for establishing long-term success.
Signing Cousins doesn’t mean you’re forcing yourself to win a Super Bowl instantly; it’s giving your team the best chance to be relevant again as soon as possible. Taking Penix right now gives you time to prepare his successor to not worry about the years after he’s done as they did post-Ryan.
Also, sitting Penix isn’t a big deal. There are plenty of recent rookie quarterbacks who could’ve benefitted from sitting for a couple of years, and Penix’s age is irrelevant in that proposition if he hits when he eventually starts. He might be a quality starter right away, but it’s possible he’ll be the best version of himself if he’s able to maximize his potential in the background. The Falcons clearly believe that’s best.
It’s a balanced approach that lacks the instant aggression that public perception typically praises, but it might be a more responsible way of pacing your team for its long-term success than just depending on Cousins to win a title and worrying about his replacement later.
The Falcons may not get every single benefit out of both situations, but they don’t need to for this to be a success. There are risks with both players, but those risks come with all quarterback transactions.
All that really matters now is that the team’s thinking works, for Cousins to be enough right now to contend and for Penix to be enough in the long run to keep that contention window open.