Rishi Sunak could face leadership challenge within days of local elections if Tories suffer bloodbath at polls
RISHI Sunak could face a leadership challenge within days of the local elections — if the Tories suffer a bloodbath at the polls.
Rebel MPs say next week’s voting at the local elections is a “do or die” moment for the plot to oust the Prime Minister from No 10.
Experts say the Conservatives could lose between 400 and 500 councillors and their two most popular mayors — Ben Houchen and Andy Street.
Tory plotters are preparing to seize on the results to launch a final push to force Mr Sunak to quit as PM.
If they succeed then Britain could be plunged into a summer general election.
But if they fail with the bid some privately admit that the plot to have a new leader will be over.
One rebel Tory MP said: “It is a do or die moment.
“MPs need to recognise that if things turn out as bad as they look then this will be the last and only chance of doing anything about it before a general election.
“But if it doesn’t happen after the local elections then it is probably too late.”
Even Mr Sunak’s biggest critics in the Tory party say he has had a good week.
The PM has announced a big boost for defence spending, finally passed his Rwanda deportation legislation, and pledged a major benefits crackdown.
And next week he is expected to come out swinging again.
He will declare that the economy has “turned a corner” and that National Insurance Contribution tax cuts are now boosting pay packets.
But privately, Tory MPs have warned that Mr Sunak’s fate could hinge on Thursday night’s local election results.
Pollsters predict the Tories will lose around half their councillors who are up to be re-elected — between 400 and 500.
It is the mayoral races that are most important with ten at stake.
But the main focus is on two.
Mr Street is running to remain as the Tory mayor for the West Midlands.
If we lose that we are in trouble. There will be a very good chance of a leadership challenge.
Tory MP
Meanwhile, Mr Houchen is battling to be re-elected the Conservative Mayor for Tees Valley.
Most Tory insiders think Mr Street could lose.
But Mr Houchen — known as the Red Wall Mayor — stormed to victory with 73 per cent of the vote in 2021.
If he loses then Tories expect the knives to come out for Mr Sunak.
A Conservative MP said: “If we lose that we are in trouble.
“There will be a very good chance of a leadership challenge.”
A Tory MP loyal to the PM added: “If we lose Ben then things will be really bad.
“I don’t know what will happen.”
Publicly, Labour are scrambling to play down the idea they could beat Mr Houchen.
But secretly they are desperate to show they are clawing back voters in the all-important Red Wall.
Some think that this battle is personal for the party’s leader Sir Keir Starmer.
He nearly quit the position in 2021 when they lost the by-election in Hartlepool — which sits in Mr Houchen’s patch.
In London, Susan Hall is battling to try to oust Labour’s Sadiq Khan.
Tory sources say it will be a good night if she runs him close in the polls and gives him a bloody nose.
Ms Hall has revealed that some of her colleagues had suggested she have a makeover.
She said she was “bloody livid” when the female Women2Win group made the offer and she told them to “sod off”.
In the wider party, rebel sources say they are keeping a list of MPs who have sent no confidence letters in about Mr Sunak or are thinking about it.
If 53 Tories send in the letters then a vote of confidence must be held.
If the PM lost that then the Tory party would have to run a leadership contest.
Alternatively, Mr Sunak could decide to announce a snap election to stave off the threat of a leadership challenge.
Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps are both widely seen as “on manoeuvres” and ready to pounce if a leadership election takes place.
But other Cabinet ministers hit out and criticised Tories already vying to take over at No 10.
One said: “If they want to move against the PM then let them drink their own poison.”
In a sign of just how tense things have become, a rumour that Mr Sunak was going to call a snap election tomorrow tore through Westminster at the end of last week.
Panicked Labour chiefs became convinced that the PM was holding a secret meeting in his No 10 bunker to thrash out the shock announcement.
Nigel’s return?
Pollster Lord Robert Hayward predicts that the Tories will lose upwards of 400 council seats from Thursday’s voting.
He said: “It would be a bad night if the Conservatives lost 400 seats, but it would not be a blowout for Labour.
“The fact Labour are 20 points ahead in the polls and they are not sure they are going to defeat Andy or Ben is in itself a comment on Andy and Ben’s abilities.
“It would be bad news for Labour if they didn’t win them.
“This is the Red Wall.”
Labour plans to turn the screw on the Tories this week by going after the pensioner vote — which they call the “silver wall”.
Labour attack dog Jonathan Ashworth is planning a tour of bingo halls, garden centres and lunch clubs to talk to pensioners.
He will claim that Tory plans to eventually ditch National Insurance Contributions as a tax will put their pensions at risk.
A source said: “Everyone talks about the Red Wall but pensioners are crucial.
“We will go after the silver wall.”
Meanwhile, there are fresh rumours that Nigel Farage is eyeing a return to frontline politics in the election.
Sources say that he told Liz Truss “I’m coming back” at a recent party held in Westminster.
Although this is denied by Mr Farage.
