Maine Democrats threaten switch to a 'winner-take-all' Electoral College system if Nebraska changes how it allocates its electoral votes

• A top Maine Democrat floated changes in the state's electoral laws in response to Nebraska.
• Nebraska Republicans earlier in April sought to change how the state allocates its electoral votes.
• The move was backed by Trump in a state where Biden was able to pick up one electoral vote in 2020.

A high-ranking Maine Democratic lawmaker on Friday warned that the state would be "compelled" to change its Electoral College delegate allocation to a "winner-take-all" system should Nebraska tweak its rules to benefit former President Donald Trump.

Maine House Majority Leader Maureen Terry in a statement said that voters in her state and in Nebraska's swing 2nd Congressional District "value their independence, but they also value fairness and playing by the rules."

"If Nebraska's Republican Governor and Republican-controlled Legislature were to change their electoral system this late in the cycle in order to unfairly award Donald Trump an additional electoral vote, I think the Maine Legislature would be compelled to act in order to restore fairness to our country's electoral system," she continued.

The remarks come weeks after Trump touted Nebraska GOP Gov. Jim Pillen's support of a bill that would change the state's system of allocating electoral votes from one determined by individual congressional districts to one that would award the state's five electoral votes to the statewide victor.

"I am steadfast in my commitment to get winner-take-all over the finish line, thereby honoring our constitutional founding, unifying our state and ending the three-decade-old mistake of allocating Nebraska's electoral votes differently than all but one other state," the governor said earlier this month.

Nebraska Democrats vehemently fought back against this electoral change before the legislative session ended earlier this month and the measure didn't advance. Pillen floated a potential special session to complete "other unfinished business," which would include the switch to a winner-take-all system. However, so far, Republicans lack the 33 votes needed to make the change, and the governor previously indicated that he wouldn't call a session unless he had the requisite support to get it through the legislature.

While Nebraska overwhelmingly backed Trump in the overall statewide vote in both 2016 and 2020 — part of a longstanding pattern for Republican presidential nominees — President Joe Biden was the victor in the Omaha-based 2nd Congressional District in 2020 and thus secured its one electoral vote.

The only other state in country that allocates its electoral votes by congressional district is Maine, where the political dynamic is flipped: Biden won the overall statewide vote by a wide margin, but Trump captured one electoral vote by carrying the state's 2nd Congressional District.

Any change in election law in either state would immediately raise the stakes in what is expected to be a close November general election between Biden and Trump.

In a scenario where Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but loses Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — granted that he also keeps every core Democratic state in his column — he'd win the Electoral College by a bare minimum 270 to 268.

If Nebraska went through with its change, Trump would likely win the state's entire share of electoral votes, given its strong GOP orientation. In the aforementioned scenario, the Electoral College would be tied 269 to 269, which would move the selection of the president to the US House of Representatives. But if Maine also switched to a winner-take-all system before the 2024 election, Biden would be heavily favored to win all of that state's electoral votes and would thus win the Electoral College (270 to 268).

Maine Democrats — who control the state legislature — had generally not spoken of tweaking their electoral allocation system ahead of 2024.

But things are much different now.

"It is my hope and the hope of my colleagues in Maine that the Nebraska Republican Party decides not to make this desperate and ill-fated attempt to sway the 2024 election," Terry said.