Snakebitten: Mariners vs. Diamondbacks Series Preview

The Mariners return home leading the division but have a pair of tough NL matchups on the docket.

Your Seattle Mariners (because they have been playing in a way that makes us willing to claim them once again as ours) return to the upper left corner of the country flush with back-to-back-to-back series wins that have allowed them to shimmy their way into first place in the division. While the start of the season demonstrated the type of baseball we expected and feared from this year’s teal conglomeration, the road trip demonstrated the type of baseball we hoped and imagined this team could play. The pitching excelled, Julio reunited with his beloved, and the defense did not send Perry Hill into cardiac arrest. Cruising back into T-Mobile Park, the vibes are solid - and that’s only partially due to tonight’s Turn Ahead the Clock Night jersey giveaway.

The defending National League champs have scuffled to start the season, marred by injuries, uncharacteristically poor performances and generally bad luck. Some might even say they’ve been snakebitten (not me, I like my apples perched in the highest of boughs). Over at sister site AZ Snakepit, their misfortunes so haunted one writer that he could not rest whilst on vacation until attempting to uncover the root cause of the malaise. He identifies, in part, that their struggles stem from an impressively anemic .108/.248/.169 line in high leverage situations. It’s particularly potent when paired with opposing hitters netting .337/.407/.495 in the same settings. All that said, it’s still not yet even May and the Diamondbacks sit in the standings like a Matt Barnes splitter to Shohei Ohtani. They’re far from out of it, but they’ll need to start picking it up soon if they want to keep that AC running at Chase Field in October.

The offensive breakdown has been stark and funky. Ketel MarTuck Everlasting continues to sip from the fountain of eternal youth, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is his annoyingly-excellent self and Joc Pederson has been hitting exactly like one might hope a newly-acquired free agent hitter might. But Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll has struggled at the plate; erstwhile beloved, Eugenio Suárez got off to a spicy start, which was nice for him and the internet takesters, but has since floated gently back to earth; and a rash of long and short term injuries have compounded collective offensive difficulties.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

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Zac Gallen finished third in the NL Cy Young voting last year after a fantastic season in which he crossed the 200 inning threshold for the first time in his career while adding another 33 innings in postseason play on top of it all. Because of his long injury history and his immense workload last year, there were some questions about his slightly lower fastball velocity this season. He’s brushed aside those concerns so far, posting a 2.73 FIP in five starts so far. His deep repertoire allows him to thrive via strikeouts while the Diamondbacks’ excellent defense behind him helps mitigate some of the hard contact he’s prone to allow.

Slade Cecconi was ranked among the Diamondbacks top prospects heading into last season and his first taste of big league action was promising. He didn’t strike out that many batters but his strikeout-to-walk ratio was near elite thanks to a miniscule walk rate. He fills the zone with his mid-90s fastball and then uses a trio of secondary offerings to tempt batters into chasing out of the zone. His slider is the best of that bunch but it’s really his only offering that generates whiffs.

Brandon Pfaadt had a really interesting rookie season. He struggled upon his debut in May, allowing a whopping 22 runs in his first five big league starts. He was sent back to Triple-A for a bit, returned in late June to better results and then became one of Arizona’s key contributors in their surprising postseason run to the World Series. The key to unlocking his late season success was a shift in horizontal release point helping him be more direct to the plate. That helped him land his pitches around the zone more often while letting their natural movement create swings and misses. His sweeper and changeup benefitted the most, giving him two weapons to use against right-and left-handed batters, respectively.

The Big Picture:

The Astros continue to tumble down the standings after getting swept by the Cubs earlier this week. They’ll head into the big two-game Mexico City series against the Rockies with the same record as their hapless opponent. The Rangers continue their long homestand with a weekend series against the Reds. The Orioles just beat up on the Angels earlier this week and will host the A’s who are currently playing better than expected.