Opinion: Top four chase: Can Spurs catch Aston Villa for final Champions League place?

With the likelihood of just four Premier League teams in next season’s Champions League all but confirmed, Tottenham has just a handful of matches to catch up – and pass – Aston Villa for the last UCL place.

For a good portion of the current campaign, it looked as though Spurs were on their way to a return to not just European competition next season, but a coveted place in the Champions League.

Even as Tottenham’s form became inconsistent following a strong start and they settled in behind the top three of Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal, it seemed like fourth was possibly as low as Spurs could go through Matchweek 12.

Helped by the up-and-down results of European place contenders Manchester United, Newcastle, and West Ham, Tottenham seemingly had just one club to edge for fourth position. Aston Villa.

Locked in fifth place

As Spurs’ form dipped, they found themselves outside the top four for the first time following a home loss to Unai Emery’s side in Matchweek 13.

Tottenham has jumped back into the UCL places four times since that defeat, but it has only lasted a single match before they dropped back into fifth.

Even as Spurs sat in fifth, it looked as though they would get a Champions League place next season anyway. Thanks to changes to the top-tier European competition, the top two performing leagues in this year’s edition would be rewarded with an extra spot for 2024-25.

The competition for those places would likely come down to Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga, and the Premier League. With the EPL having eight clubs in Europe, chances were high they would get a spot.

Premier League stumbles in Europe

As the quarterfinals rolled around across the three competitions, all four leagues remained in contention for an extra UCL spot. While Serie A led the way, many assumed the Premier League would edge the rest of the pack for the second spot, or perhaps overtake Italy’s top division.

The Premier League appeared to be in solid shape with Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, West Ham, and Aston Villa still in Europe.

Arsenal had a tough draw with Bayern Munich, but the Bavarian giants seemed more beatable than ever as Bayer Leverkusen dominated the Bundesliga. Speaking of Leverkusen, West Ham was facing a buzzsaw against a side that hadn’t – and still hasn’t – lost a match all season.

Manchester City had the tough task of facing Real Madrid, but they had overcome the Champions League’s winningest club on their way to last season’s title. Many didn’t even consider the possibility that Liverpool could lose to Atalanta or Aston Villa to Lille.

Well, two legs of the quarterfinals have come and gone, and it could not have gone any worse for English clubs. Aside from Villa booking a place in its first European semifinal since the 2002 Intertoto Cup, every other side was knocked out.

Man City fell on penalties, Arsenal went out to Harry Kane’s new club, and Liverpool couldn’t overcome a shocking 3-0 first-leg defeat at Anfield. West Ham fought to get within a goal of sending the second leg to extra time, but Leverkusen found a late equalizer to seal a semifinal spot.

Top four or bust

As the chance for the second extra UCL spot disappeared, Spurs sitting in fifth meant it would do them nothing to finish there, aside from a Europa League place.

Now Tottenham turns its attention to its first match since the Premier League’s disastrous European round, hosting rival and top-of-the-table Arsenal in the North London Derby on Sunday.

Not only will Spurs want to take down a hated rival and potentially damage the Gunners’ title hopes, but they also need a result to catch Aston Villa for fourth place.

While they are currently six points adrift of Villa, they do have a pair of matches in hand on them. By no means is the battle over.

Down to the wire

Spurs do however have a more difficult schedule remaining than the Villans. Along with the NLD, Tottenham has to travel to London rival Chelsea and battle Liverpool away and Man City at home. They also have matches against Burnley and Sheffield United.

On the other hand, Villa has just four remaining league fixtures. They must face Chelsea and Liverpool as well but have matches against bottom-half sides Brighton and Crystal Palace. Villa also has a goal-difference edge over Spurs (+21 compared to +16 as of this writing). Aston Villa also has at least the semifinals of the Europa Conference League on the fixture list, and reaching a final would add three more matches to a calendar alongside the four EPL matches.

So with only six matches to play, can Tottenham climb back into fourth? This week’s match with Arsenal is not only a chance to beat the club’s biggest rival, but it could be the difference in a spot in next season’s Champions League or having to settle for Europa League football.

Where will Spurs finish?

Considering where Tottenham are at in the table, they have some work to do as they look to overtake Aston Villa for the final Champions League place.

The question is, can they do it?

Seeing how Spurs played during the first quarter or so of the season, I would say yes. But then again, if they had continued to perform as they did in those first 12 or so matchweeks, they would not be in this position.

Once again they find themselves chasing fourth place, something that has occurred all too often in the last handful of seasons.

Considering recent results, I would give Aston Villa the edge of finishing fourth. Since being hammered 4-0 by Spurs on March 10, the Villans have lost just one of nine matches across all competitions.

While Tottenham has only played five matches in the same span, they have lost twice. That includes the 4-0 defeat last time out at Newcastle. Spurs also have the disadvantage of being six points back of Unai Emery’s side, while also lagging on goal difference (in large part due to the Newcastle result).

In the end, I see Tottenham falling just short and finishing in fifth position.

Disappointing? Yes, absolutely. But considering the expectations coming into the year, Spurs should take Europa League football over last season’s finish outside of the European spots.

If they do happen to end this season in a Europa League place, we can only hope they do not take the second-tier competition lightly next campaign.

Will Spurs claim the final UCL place? Or are they destined for the Europa League?

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