Congressional races set with dozens of candidates running in South Florida

Florida’s 2024 congressional races are now set, with only one member of Congress getting a pass and returning to office without facing the voters.

The Friday deadline for candidates to qualify kicks off the four-month campaign until the Aug. 20 Democratic and Republican primaries. It’s already started, with one Republican congressional candidate in Palm Beach County releasing a TV ad this week challenging so-called “woke” ideology.

The outlook was uncertain until the last minute, and the deadline brought a surprise: Luther Campbell, the rap star-turned-coach and civic activist, opted against challenging U.S. Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick in the Democratic primary, after he heavily promoted a potential candidacy.

Without a challenger from either party, Cherfilus-McCormick became the only Florida member of Congress this year who automatically won another term without facing primary or general election voters.

Voters elsewhere in South Florida will see plenty of action:

• The eight districts besides Cherfilus-McCormick’s that take in parts of Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties attracted 35 candidates.
• All the region’s incumbents are running for reelection. Half face primary challenges from within their own parties.
• In several cases, the out-of-power opposition party primary features multiple candidates, including candidates who’ve run — and lost — before.

Incumbents favored

A face or two could change, but it’s unlikely that the overall makeup of the state’s congressional  delegation — now overwhelmingly Republican — looks different after this year’s voting, said Sean Foreman, a political scientist at Barry University.

Because of the way Gov. Ron DeSantis and Republicans in the Legislature drafted the boundaries for congressional districts, they’re all designed to make them heavily favor one of the parties, and aren’t competitive. It was done to maximize the number of Republican seats.

“These districts are designed to favor one party or another. Without well-known and well-financed opponents, it’s really hard to make any traction in these rigged districts,” Foreman said. “The districts are designed to favor one party or another. We really have few districts that have the potential to switch.”

The state has 20 Republican and eight Democratic representatives, although the state’s voters don’t lean that heavily toward the GOP.  Among Florida likely voters in an April 18 Florida Atlantic University poll, 47% they’d vote Republican for Congress and 39% said Democratic.

A range of independent organizations that assess U.S. House races put virtually all the South Florida contests solidly in the hands of the party now in control of the district.

Political experience

Most of the challengers don’t have political or government experience. For several candidates, their political experience is limited to multiple unsuccessful runs for Congress before.

Among the exceptions:

• Chris Eddy, a Weston city commissioner and retired brigadier general, who is one of the Republicans seeking his party’s nomination to challenge U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, D-Weston.
• Robert Weinroth, now a Republican seeking the nomination to challenge U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a Broward/Palm Beach County Democrat, is a former Palm Beach County commissioner. Weinroth was a Democrat when he was elected to the post in 2018 and when he lost in 2022 before switching parties.
• Lucia Baez-Geller is a member of the Miami-Dade School Board. Mike Davey is a former Key Biscayne mayor. They are Democrats competing for their party’s nomination to challenge U.S. Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, a Miami-Dade County Republican.

District 21

Northern Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie counties.

U.S. Rep. Brian Mast, a Republican, is seeking a fifth term.

Republican Rick Wiles qualified to challenge Mast in the Republican primary. Thomas Witkop is a Democrat running for the seat.

The partisan voting index from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the district as R plus 7, which means it performed 7 points more Republican than the nation during the last two presidential contests

The nonpartisan Inside Elections rating is “solid Republican,” and University of Virginia Center for Politics labeled it “safe Republican.” Cook rated the district as solid Republican, “not considered competitive” and “not likely to become closely contested.”

District 22

All-Palm Beach County District includes Delray Beach, Boynton Beach and the territory west of the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge. It takes in Wellington, Greenacres and part of West Palm Beach. It also includes Palm Beach — including the Mar-a-Lago home of former President Donald Trump.

U.S. Rep. Lois Frankel, a Democrat, is seeking a seventh term.

Frankel is a former mayor of West Palm Beach and previously was a member of the state House of Representatives, where she served as Democratic leader.

Three Republicans, Deborah Adeimy, Dan Franzese, and Andrew Gutmann, are seeking their party’s nomination.

Gutmann’s ad, released this week, excoriates “woke liberals” and urges people to “restore pride in our Judeo-Christian values.”

Franzese narrowly won the 2022 primary but lost to Frankel in November of that year. Adeimy narrowly lost the 2022 primary to Franzese.

The partisan voting index from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the district as D plus 7, which means it performed 7 points more Democratic than the nation during the past two presidential contests.

The nonpartisan Inside Elections rating is “solid Democratic,” and University of Virginia Center for Politics labeled it “safe Democratic.” Cook rated the district as solid Democratic, “not considered competitive” and “not likely to become closely contested.”

23rd District

Takes in northern Broward and much of the coast extending south through most of Fort Lauderdale and a share of southern Palm Beach County.

U.S. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a Democrat, is seeking his second term.

Republicans Weinroth, Gary Barve, Darlene Cerezo Swaffar, Joseph “Joe” Kaufman, Carla Spalding and Joe Thelusca.

Swaffar, Kaufman and Spalding have collectively run 10 times for Congress in previous elections.

Weinroth has been elected to the Boca Raton City Council and Palm Beach County Commission. Thelusca is a former elected school board member in New Jersey.

The partisan voting index from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the district as D plus 5, which means it performed 5 points more Democratic than the nation during the past two presidential contests.

The nonpartisan Inside Elections rating is “solid Democratic,” and University of Virginia Center for Politics labeled it “safe Democratic.”

Cook rated it as “likely Democratic” and “not considered competitive at this point.” It was the only Broward or Palm Beach County district that any of the three ratings didn’t put in its most certain category.

District 24

The area in Broward south of Pembroke Road from Interstate 95 to west of University Drive is in the Miami-Dade County-dominated district.

U.S. Rep. Frederica Wilson, a Democrat, is seeking her eighth term.

Republicans Patricia Gonzalez and Jesus Gabriel Navarro are running in the primary to challenge her.

The partisan voting index from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the district as D plus 25, which means it performed 25 points more Democratic than the nation during the past two presidential contests.

The nonpartisan Inside Elections rating is “solid Democratic,” and University of Virginia Center for Politics labeled it “safe Democratic.” Cook rated the district as solid Democratic, “not considered competitive” and “not likely to become closely contested.”

District 25

The all-Broward district takes in almost everything south of Interstate 595 and a little territory to the north, including parts of Plantation and Fort Lauderdale.

Wasserman Schultz, the senior Democrat in the Florida congressional delegation, is seeking her 11th term.

She’s being challenged in the primary by Democrat Jennifer “Jen” Perelman, who also ran in 2020.

Republicans Eddy, Bryan E. Leib, and Rubin Young are seeking their party’s nomination.

The partisan voting index from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the district as D plus 9, which means it performed 9 points more Democratic than the nation during the past two presidential contests.

The nonpartisan Inside Elections rating is “solid Democratic,” and University of Virginia Center for Politics labeled it “safe Democratic.”

Cook rated the district as solid Democratic, “not considered competitive” and “not likely to become closely contested.”

Other races

There was a Friday political maneuver. Longtime U.S. Rep. Bill Posey, R-Rockledge, qualified for reelection. But just before the deadline, former Republican state Senate President Mike Haridopolos qualified for the seat.

Posey then quickly announced his retirement and endorsement of Haridopolos.

Other candidates are running as well, but by keeping quiet about his retirement, Posey created a clear path for his favored candidate to win the Central Florida district.

Republican U.S. Rep. Laurel Lee faces a primary challenge in her Hillsborough and Polk county district.

Challenger James Judge had initially filed to challenge another congressman in a different district, but shifted after former President Donald Trump called on “any great MAGA” challengers to run against Lee.

Lee’s offense in Trump’s eyes: She backed first DeSantis’ unsuccessful bid for the Republican presidential nomination, though she switched her support Trump after DeSantis dropped out.

“Reporting for duty, Mr. President,” Judge posted on his website. Also running is Republican Jennifer Barbosa, who made an unsuccessful run for Congress in California.

With almost all the state’s congressional districts seen as a lock for one of the parties, political operatives are watching three contests:

• U.S. Rep. Darren Soto’s Central Florida district is seen as “likely Democratic” by the Cook Political Report instead of solid. (The other ratings see it as more solidly Democratic.)
• U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, a Tampa Bay Republican, represents a district seen as “likely” but not solidly Republican by all three ratings.
• Salazar, the Miami-Dade Republican, is seen as likely but not solidly Republican by the University of Virginia and Cook Political Report ratings.

Besides Baez-Geller and Davey in the Democratic primary, Republican Royland Lara is challenging Salazar in the Republican primary.

U.S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, the dean of the Florida congressional delegation, faces two Republican primary challengers: Richard Evans and Johnny Fratto. Democrat Joey Atkins is also running.

U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez, another Miami-Dade County Republican, has no primary challenge but will face Democrat Phil Ehr in November.

Information from the Orlando Sentinel is included in this report.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Post.news.