Eskom predicts stage two load-shedding for winter

In the week that Eskom reached the “milestone” of 30 days without load-shedding, the power utility anticipates that power cuts will be maintained within stage two at most during winter.

This was the optimistic assessment made by Eskom’s group chief executive, Dan Marokane, at the release of its state of the system and winter outlook on Friday.

“In the extreme case where the unreliability increases, that component may occasionally go to stage five but we really think that on the basis of what we see, the performance of the fleet, load-shedding will stay within stage two,” Maroka told a media briefing at its Megawatt Park headquarters in Johannesburg.

The winter forecast was made in anticipation of the unplanned capacity loss factor (UCLF) — the rate at which generating units break down and do not perform optimally — reaching 14 000 megawatts during winter, which is down from the anticipated 15 000MW during the same period last year, he said. 

Although the reduction may look minimal, it is crucial for managing the intensity of load-shedding, Marokane noted. 

“What is really important as we go into this season’s forecast is that the base level for UCLF number is lower by a 1000MW.  When you understand the capacity that we have, it does not look like a big number but when you actually understand the implications in terms of the levels of load-shedding, being able to bank that capacity is an important aspect.”

He said Eskom has been working hard to lower the UCLF. “When you look at the time period between the last winter and now, you can actually see the reduction in unplanned losses — a 9% drop. It is mostly coming from the priority stations that were targeted as focal points.”

Eskom also reaped the benefits of the early return of the four Kusile power station units that were out. “The losses are averaging around 14.2 gigawatts. Our focus on targets in this financial year is to keep this below 14GW.”

Marokane said the focus would be on six or seven key areas that cause unreliability. Work would continue over the winter period and “we are targeting to reduce the unplanned losses by a further 1.7GW.”

Reflecting on Eskom’s achievement of 30 days without load-shedding, Marokane said that given the experience over the past two years, “this has been a very good moment to reflect on”.

“What has transpired here is a culmination of interventions that started a year ago.” This had increased the confidence of Eskom’s teams and “we can move towards this becoming routine”.

From April 2023 to March this year, Eskom has recorded a 19% decline in unit trips.

Marokane said the frequency and intensity of load-shedding in the past year has declined with performances such as those seen over the last 30 days being expected. “We’re not out of the woods yet, but it is a trend that is encouraging given the investment that has gone into the generation recovery plan.” 

Eskom chairperson Mteto Nyati said that although it has not achieved its target of a 65% energy availability factor, the 61% figure it had now reached is “in line with what we thought we’d be experiencing at this time”.