Grammys Best Dance Pop Performance contenders: Reigning champ Kylie Minogue vs. Ariana Grande, Dua Lipa?

Last year the Grammys introduced a new category: Best Pop Dance Recording. The purpose of the category was to cleave the dance-oriented pop musicians out of the electronic categories and thus make it fairer for electronic DJs and producers who usually can’t compete against huge names like Lady Gaga or Beyoncé. The category seems to have been a success, giving space to acclaimed artists like Troye Sivan and Kylie Minogue to get on the Grammy stage; Minogue ultimately won for “Padam Padam.” While last year’s set of nominees was quite well-known (David Guetta, Calvin Harris and Bebe Rexha also made the cut), this year could produce an even more star-studded pack.

I think it’s safe to say that there are two frontrunners so far, from two mega pop divas. First is Ariana Grande, whose “Yes, And?” is one of the year’s biggest hits. While the song is not as commercially dominant as some of Grande’s other smash hits (including this year’s “We Can’t Be Friends”), it was still a number-one hit on the Billboard Hot 100 and will be helped by the fact that pop voters do really like Grande. She’s a perennial nominee, so the nomination is practically locked. In terms of winning, “Yes, And?” has legendary producer Max Martin in its favor, not to mention that its parent album, “Eternal Sunshine,” has been one of the year’s most stable albums in the upper reaches of the Billboard 200.

That said, Grande has to fight off Dua Lipa, whose “Houdini” might be the biggest eligible hit so far. Comparing the two songs is tricky, though; while “Yes, And?” has peaked much higher (and has spent multiple weeks in the top 10), the number-11 peaking “Houdini” has been far more stable over its 20+ weeks and has gotten far more airplay. That last part is especially important as pop voters love big radio hits. That said, Lipa’s new album rollout has been quite muted based on how its singles have performed so far, so it’ll be interesting to see if voters gravitate towards a more established favorite like Grande, or go for the acclaimed hit from Lipa.

Another strong contender this year is Troye Sivan, who will likely return after probably being close to a win last year for “Rush.” This year his ticket to a nomination is likely “Got Me Started,” which has accumulated more than 100 million Spotify streams and was featured in the hit movie “Anyone But You.” Sivan might also consider submitting the buzzier “One of Your Girls,” although calling that a dance song is a bit of a stretch.

And speaking of Aussies nominated last year, inaugural category winner Minogue might also be back, this time with “Tension.” The song was not the hit that “Padam Padam” was, but since Minogue just won the category, it’s likely voters will at least take her into consideration for another nomination. Guetta might also return for his hit “When We Were Young,” which features Grammy winner Kim Petras.

Beyond those potential favorites, we need to talk about Charli XCX, whose “Brat” era has been making a lot of noise online. Her song “Von Dutch” is one of the year’s most acclaimed, so perhaps we’ll finally be looking at Charli’s Grammy breakthrough. Last year she likely would’ve gotten in had “Speed Drive,” from the “Barbie” movie, been submitted to Pop Dance Recording instead of Pop Solo Performance. So despite “Von Dutch” not being quite as popular, voters might want to give Charli her flowers this year.

Another artist who could finally break through is Madison Beer. While she is a Grammy nominee due to her work as an immersive producer on her last album, “Silence Between Songs,” this year she might get her first pop nomination with “Make You Mine.” It’s a viral hit, spreading on TikTok and rapidly rising on streaming platforms. Plus it’s starting to get airplay too, which as mentioned above always helps with pop voters.

But wait, there’s more. Some other contenders also in the mix include Kygo and Ava Max’s “Whatever,” which has been racking up streams and might bring both dance artists their first nominations. There’s also Calvin Harris, nominated last year, who might be back with his hit “Body Moving” with Eliza Rose. Finally, Kim Petras released her EP “Slut Pop: Miami” this year, so perhaps one of those cuts can also make the nominations list … assuming they are not too risque for Grammy voters.

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