News Every Day | 26 April 2024, 07:29

7 things oddsmakers got wrong (Michael Penix!) about the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft

The NFL Draft can be a tough time for oddsmakers to create lines favorable to sportsbooks because they’re working off the same information as the rest of us. There are no formulas or spreadsheets they can rely on to gain an edge over the public the way they can for actual games.

That means when draft day comes around, some odds will prove to be right because the information was reliable, and some odds will be flat out wrong — either because teams successfully threw everyone off their scent or something else happened to stop a player from going where he was expected.

This year, that “something else” started with the Los Angeles Chargers staying put at No. 5 rather than trading back as expected, which caused a small ripple effect. It continued a few picks later when the Atlanta Falcons stunned everyone by drafting a quarterback. Here’s a look at all the biggest misses of the first round.

7. Joe Alt to the Chargers at No. 5

Alt was among five players with BetMGM odds between +250 and +350 to be drafted here, so it’s not that he was a massive surprise at No. 5. But if the Los Angeles Chargers weren’t going to trade out of the pick, oddsmakers had JC Latham (+250) favored slightly ahead of Alt (+320) as the offensive lineman they would take.

With the Minnesota Vikings rumored to be interested in a trade for this spot, J.J. McCarthy was tied as the favorite earlier in the week. By draft day, he was still second to Latham at +300.

6. JC Latham to the Titans at No. 7

This miss was a direct result of Joe Alt going to the Chargers, because Alt was expected to slide to the Tennessee Titans with LA projected to take Latham. Instead, the two tackles swapped landing spots, and the odds for this pick were most off the mark. Alt had -165 odds to be the pick here.

5. Total defensive players drafted in Round 1

This line was set at 10.5 and the over was favored at -210. Oddsmakers clearly didn’t expect the stunning run of offensive players taken with the first 14 picks, which led to a first round that saw only nine defensive players taken and the under hit at +160. This also meant oddsmakers missed on the total offensive players taken.

4. Total wide receivers drafted in Round 1

BetMGM set the line on this prop at 6.5 and the under was favored at -300 odds. Bettors were getting +230 odds on the over, which cashed after the first round opened with three receivers in the top 10 and closed with four in the last 10, including the final two picks.

3. Laiatu Latu to the Colts at No. 15

With this pick, the Indianapolis Colts made Latu the first defensive player taken in this draft, despite his +225 odds to be that player. Two players were favored over Latu to be the first defender off the board, including Dallas Turner at -110 and Byron Murphy at +160.

2. JJ McCarthy to the Vikings at No. 10

Though the right team landed McCarthy, it happened at the wrong spot. His odds to be drafted after No. 5 were +115, because the Minnesota Vikings were expected to trade up for him at 5. His odds at No. 10 were just +2000. Brock Bowers was the favorite here at +190, but the New York Jets trading out of the pick changed that. In fact, Bowers slid to the Las Vegas Raiders, whose odds to draft him trailed at least 10 other teams at +4000.

1. Michael Penix Jr. to the Falcons at No. 8

This was absolutely the biggest stunner of the first round, because the Atlanta Falcons were only ever expected to take a defensive player. Edge rusher Dallas Turner opened as the +140 favorite to be picked here and remained the favorite on draft day at +160, with the next closest player also being an edge rusher. Penix’s odds never shortened from +6600 at open, and yet the Falcons added the rookie quarterback just weeks after signing Kirk Cousins to their roster.

As you can imagine, this odd pick meant sportsbooks were wrong on other props too:

Raiders were favored to draft Penix at -110 (Falcons were +1300)
Penix’s odds to be a top 10 pick were +750
Odds for the Falcons’ first pick to be a QB were +4000 (DL/edge was favored at -250)