2024 NFL top-10 mock draft based on consensus betting odds (plus sleepers at each pick)
It’s draft day, so by now you’ve seen dozens of mocks and heard countless opinions on how things will shake out when the Chicago Bears are officially on the clock and the draft is underway.
Oddsmakers have seen and heard all the chatter too, and they’ve used that information to handicap hundreds of prop bets on the draft. Among them, bettors can wager on which player will be selected at each individual pick in the top 10.
So, here’s a different kind of mock draft, one where the draft order is based on consensus odds across several sportsbooks. For the purposes of this exercise, I used BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and Caesars.
Also see: Patriots trade back, Vikings get Jayden Daniels in FTW’s latest 2024 NFL mock draft
No. 1: QB Caleb Williams
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Sleeper: Jayden Daniels (but it’s not happening)
There’s no debate with this pick. Williams has been the favorite since the pre-draft process began and his hold on the No. 1 pick has only strengthened since, with his shortest odds at this spot being -10000 at BetMGM. If the Chicago Bears stun the world and pass on Williams, it’ll only be to take a different QB, and Daniels is the consensus next best option at the position.
No. 2: QB Jayden Daniels
Sleeper: Drake Maye
This pick wasn’t always a sure bet, but in recent weeks Daniels has seemingly separated himself from Maye as the likely pick of the Washington Commanders, with his odds falling right around -1000 everywhere. Maye is the pick only if Washington successfully fooled everyone about which player it liked the most.
No. 3: QB Drake Maye
Sleeper: J.J. McCarthy
It almost feels like everyone thinks the New England Patriots will take Maye by default because he’s the best quarterback remaining after previously being lumped into a top-three with Williams and Daniels. But the perception around Maye has changed since the end of the season and he may actually be closer to the next tier of QBs. That gives someone like McCarthy a shot here.
No. 4: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
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Sleeper: Malik Nabers
Some people think this is a spot where we could see a team trade up to take someone like J.J. McCarthy, but I just don’t think the Arizona Cardinals can pass on the opportunity to grab a playmaker like Harrison. So I’m assuming they stay here, and the only way Harrison isn’t the pick is if they decided one of the other receivers is actually an even bigger offensive threat.
No. 5: OL JC Latham
Sleeper: J.J. McCarthy
Latham has taken a big jump in recent days to become the favorite here. He had +4000 odds on Sunday, with McCarthy and Malik Nabers considered much bigger favorites at the time. Now, experts think the Los Angeles Chargers will go tackle if they don’t trade out. That said, you have to think a trade is still possible here. That’s why McCarthy is my sleeper pick at No. 5.
No. 6: WR Malik Nabers
Sleeper: Rome Odunze
Look, I know the New York Giants have been tied to a couple of quarterbacks at this spot, but no matter who’s under center, they have to give them legit playmakers to throw to. I don’t think they can pass on one of the elite receivers from this class, so if the pick isn’t Nabers it’ll be Odunze.
No. 7: OL Joe Alt
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Sleeper: JC Latham
After the top three, Alt is one of the strongest favorites to be taken at a specific spot, with odds as short as -195 at FanDuel. It would make sense for the Tennessee Titans, who need to protect the blindside of Will Levis. However, with the Chargers as a threat to take Alt at No. 5, Latham may end up being the best option when the Titans pick.
No. 8: LB Dallas Turner
Sleeper: Laiatu Latu
Turner is favored as the first defensive player to come off the board, but it’s not by much. Prognosticators don’t seem to have a great grasp on whether the Atlanta Falcons would prefer Turner or Latu at No. 8, though they agree one of these edge rushers will be the pick. Turner is younger and may have more upside, but Latu has a little familiarity with Atlanta’s coaching staff.
No. 9: DT Byron Murphy
Sleeper: Rome Odunze
The Bears are back on the board at No. 9 after filling their quarterback need with the first pick, and people are becoming more convinced they’ll go defense with this one. Murphy’s odds have jumped up from +900 earlier in the week to as short as +140 at several sportsbooks. However, after seeing the Odunze and Caleb Williams lovefest this week, I’m not convinced Chicago won’t keep adding to the offense.
Landed safely in Detroit
@RomeOdunze @CALEBcsw https://t.co/ZqbdHD1aks pic.twitter.com/m6g2vJaFIg
— NFL (@NFL) April 23, 2024
No. 10: TE Brock Bowers
Sleeper: JC Latham
Bowers is an exceptional talent, and he’d be a luxury for Aaron Rodgers to have at tight end, so I can understand why the New York Jets would take him here. However, there’s no denying they could use more talent on the offensive line, so maybe they go with one of the best remaining prospects there, and that could very well be Latham if the Chargers trade out of No. 5.