Revisiting the 2023-24 Pittsburgh Penguins preseason over/under numbers
We set some over/unders for the Pittsburgh Penguins core group before this season. This is how they (and you) did in getting to them.
Before the start of the 2023-24 NHL season we posted some over/under numbers regarding the Pittsburgh Penguins core group of players — Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust.
Now that the season is complete, let’s take a look back at how we did.
Sidney Crosby: Over/Under 95.5 points
How you voted: Under (51 percent)
How Crosby did: 94 points (under)
That is almost as close as you can get without going over. It was a truly incredible season for Crosby and one of the best ever for a player his age as he also topped the 40-goal mark.
He ended up being one of just six different players to ever score 40 goals and 90 points in a season when age 35 or older, joining a list that includes only Teemu Selanne, Johnny Bucyk, Mark Messier and Alex Ovechkin.
If the power play had been anything other than a season-long dumpster fire (and, in the interests of fairness, Crosby also plays a role in that) he would have easily surpassed the 95.5 mark. HIs 42 goals were tied for 11th in the league, while His 71 even-strength points were seventh. His 94 total points were tied for 12th. He is still going strong even deep into his 30s with little sign of slowing down.
Evgeni Malkin: Over/under 30.5 goals
How you voted: Under (52 percent)
How Malkin did: 27 goals (under)
Malkin has not topped the 30-goal mark in a single season since the 2017-18 season, so this was probably a pretty safe bet. But he did get close. For as much criticism as Malkin took at times this season he still ended up scoring the same number of goals he did during the 2022-23 season (when his play was almost universally praised), the difference in his production came from a drop in assists. It is not unreasonable to conclude that the lack of finishing touch from his linemates contributed somewhat to that.
Even so, Malkin has shown more signs of slowing down than Crosby has, but he still remains a very productive player that is pushing the 30-goal mark even if no longer consistently reaching it.
Kris Letang: Over/under 50.5 points
How you voted: Over (65 percent)
How Letang did: 51 points (over)
It could not get any closer than it was, but Letang did reach the over we set for him by reaching the 50-point mark for the seventh time in his career.
Letang’s season was filled with some inconsistencies at times, and it was revealed after the season that he was playing through some pretty major injury issues that could result in offseason surgery. The fact he was able to do that and still hit the 50-point mark, while not even getting top power play minutes for most of the season, is a testament to how good and productive he has been throughout his career.
He was not the Norris Trophy contender we have seen him be in the past, but his 45 even-strength points were still ninth-best among NHL defensemen.
Jake Guentzel: Over/under 40.5 goals
How you voted: Under (73 percent)
How Guentzel did: 30 goals in 67 games, with 22 coming with the Penguins
Between the 2018-19 and 2022-23 seasons Guentzel averaged 39.9 goals per 82 games played and actually hit the 40-goal mark on two different occasions. He might have done so more than that had it not been for a couple of shortened seasons. So it was reasonable to conclude that he might still be able to make a push for the 40-goal mark this season.
This was the one vote where readers had the least confidence in the player actually hitting the over with the overwhelming majority going under.
You were right.
Guentzel ended up scoring 30 goals in 67 games with Pittsburgh and Carolina, which comes out to around a 36-goal pace per 82 games.
Still excellent. But just a bit off from the 40-goal mark.
Only 22 of those games came with the Penguins, however, as he ended up getting traded to the Carolina Hurricanes at the NHL’s trade deadline for Michael Bunting, a draft pick and a handful of prospects.
Bryan Rust: Over/under 25.5 goals
How you voted: Under (59 percent)
How rust did: Over (28 goals in 62 games)
There was not a ton of belief in Rust before the season, especially after he scored just 20 goals in 82 games during the 2022-23 season and was maybe looking like his contract could turn really ugly, really quickly. But he ended up bouncing back in a big way and having a pretty big year with 28 goals in only 62 games. That comes out to a 37-goal pace over 82 games, and on a per-game basis it was the second-best goal-scoring season of his career (0.45 goals per game) trailing only the 0.49 mark he had during the 2019-20 season in 55 games. He ended up matching that goal total with 28 assists and was nearly a point-per-game player, excelling on the Penguins’ top line next to Crosby. This is the only of the over/unders for the core group that voters ended up missing on as a group.