Bettors knew White Sox would be bad, but they’re worse than expected
Andrew Benintendi and the Sox matched the 1907 Brooklyn Superbas as the lone MLB teams to get shut out six times in their first 16 games.
AP
LAS VEGAS — As many professional bettors had expected, the White Sox have been woeful.
“But they’re worse than anyone could have imagined,” Long Island handicapper Tom Barton said, “and that’s saying something.”
We recently gathered MLB player and team propositions that might be profitable this season, and a consensus recommended betting under a projected Sox victory total that hovered around 63.
The Sox won just two of their first 15 games.
“We did it!” exclaimed “SouthSideSox” Sunday on X. “The worst 15-game start in 125 years of franchise history!”
The Sox might challenge the low bar set by the Tigers in 2003 when they won 43 games, the fewest in a full season since MLB became a 30-team league by adding the Diamondbacks and Rays in 1998.
The Marlins are brutal, too. However, Southern California ’capper Tommy Lorenzo points to positives, pitcher Braxton Garrett making a minor-league rehab start and Edward Cabrera’s return to the rotation Monday, for the Marlins.
“The White Sox have no such help on the way,” Lorenzo said. “And the core of their offense — Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez, again — is hurt.”
Getting socked
On Monday, the Sox got zapped at home by the Royals 2-0, marking them and the 1907 Brooklyn Superbas as the lone MLB teams to get shut out six times in their first 16 games.
What would’ve been the profit by betting against the Sox every game? That’s pertinent for this piece, as we explore money-making paths for the daily grind of a 162-game season, with two weeks of information.
The Sox were underdogs in those 16 games. The Braves were -338 (or risk $338 to win $100) against the Sox, and four foes were in the -200s.
For a $100-unit punter, $1,400 was earned. The two defeats cost $390, and $2,504 was required to make those 14 units of profit.
At $2,894 total cost, $1,400 in winnings makes the return on investment (ROI) 48.4%. For a two-week run, good luck finding a better legal-investment avenue.
(Will the Sox be favored by more than -110, giving it the slightest of edges, even once this season? In 2023, the A’s were favored only twice.)
Chicago native Sam Panayotovich, the ace sports-betting analyst at the New England Sports Network and FoxSports.com, figured this team would be horrible, so he bought a +500 preseason ticket on it having the league’s most losses.
So far, though, he hasn’t bet against the Sox in a game.
“But I probably should,” Panayotovich says. “They are horrendous.”
Tough to beat
A lifelong pal who played minor-league baseball and fares well betting the sport hasn’t wagered yet. Too soon. He wants a month of statistics, a mound of information, for guidance.
For Vegas bettor Chuck Edel, another Chicago native, football so keys his operations that this is necessary downtime, for his family. Plus, he knows, baseball is “tough to beat.”
He delves into certain game totals when it warms up.
“I like to play overs in hot, humid weather,” Edel said. “I’ve done well with those, in the right situation.”
On April 10, I made my first — and so far lone — baseball bet when, for a half-unit, I parlayed three game overs together. All delivered, earning six times my investment as profit.
When I grab a day’s game sheet in a sportsbook, I flip it and circle the tilts with starting pitchers whose combined WHIPs (walks plus hits over innings pitched) over their last three games is more than 3.
That figure most informs me about hurlers’ current forms. It also serves my quest for cold numbers and math models, removing bias and opinion from the equation. I rarely play 5-inning or game unders.
Covers.com provides WHiP information to the books, but I couldn’t find it on its website. They can be culled from pitcher game logs at Baseball-Ref.com. EV Analytics, StatFox and TeamRankings are valuable baseball resources, too.
Value
Panayotovich has circled the Pirates and Royals “numerous times at plus prices,” he said. “Those undervalued underdogs that stack wins in the +125 to +145 range are ideal over the course of 162 games.”
The Athletics, for example, started 1-7 before turning in triumphs at +188, +190 and +177. Through Sunday, they were 7-9 but had a positive (albeit narrow) ROI of 3.6%.
Lorenzo favors pitchers he ranks as above average against lower OPS squads. With more information in May, he’ll tap five-inning and game totals.
For this story, he matched Yankees slugger Juan Soto (.348 batting average, two homers, .978 OPS) against the Angels’ Mike Trout (.318, six homers, 1.195). On Wednesday, Soto was +350 to win AL MVP at DraftKings, 11-to-1 for Trout.
Lorenzo recommends betting Trout to win his fourth MVP trophy.
“Sure, health is a concern for Trouty,” Lorenzo said. “But he is triple the odds of Soto and, arguably, has better numbers, and with no Shohei [Ohtani] in the lineup. There’s value in Trout.”
Barton is bullish on the Tigers in a weak AL Central. “Legit,” he calls them, “with the best defense in the league, and that could win it for them.”
Also watch Grayson Rodriguez for the Orioles, Barton said. They have won, at -117 and -124, when he has started.
“He is an ace but is being priced like a solid No. 3 starter,” Barton says. “The books will eventually adjust, but right now there is value.”