Lakers vs. Nuggets: First-round scouting report, prediction

SERIES SCHEDULE

(Best-of-seven, all times PT)

Game 1: Saturday at Denver, 5:30 p.m. (Ch. 7)

Game 2: Monday at Denver, 7 p.m. (TNT)

Game 3: Thursday at L.A., 7 p.m. (TNT)

Game 4: April 27 at L.A., 5:30 p.m. (Ch. 7)

*Game 5: April 29 at Denver, time TBD (TV TBD)

*Game 6: May 2 at L.A., time TBD (TV TBD)

*Game 7: May 4 at Denver, time TBD (TNT)

*If necessary

HEAD-TO-HEAD

The Nuggets won the regular-season series, 3-0

Oct. 24: Nuggets, 119, Lakers 107, at Denver

Feb. 8: Nuggets 114, Lakers 106, at Crypto.com Arena

March 2: Nuggets 124, Lakers 114, at Crypto.com Arena

TALE OF THE TAPE

Nuggets (regular-season rank) category … Lakers (regular-season rank)

57-25 … Season record … 47-35

114.9 (14th) … PPG … 118 (6th)

109.6 (6th) … Opp. PPG … 117.4 (23rd)

49.6% (4th) … FG Pct. … 49.9% (2nd)

37.4% (10th) … 3-point Pct. … 37.7% (8th)

76.2% (25th) … FT Pct. … 78.2% (15th)

44.4 (7th) … Rebounds … 43.1 (18th)

29.5 (3rd) … Assists … 28.5 (5th)

7.1 (21st) … Steals … 7.4 (19th)

5.6 (10th) … Blocked shots … 5.5 (11th)

12.6 (5th) … Turnovers … 14 (19th)

STARTING BACKCOURT

Jamal Murray might never have been named an All-Star since being drafted in 2016. But the Lakers know as well as any team in the league how lethal he can be. Murray averaged a series-best 32.5 points on 52.7% shooting (40.5% from 3-point range) with 6.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.8 steals in last year’s Western Conference finals. And him torching the Lakers’ wasn’t exclusive to last year’s playoffs. He averaged 24.7 points (50.8% shooting, 47.4% from 3-point range), 9.3 assists and 5.0 rebounds in the Nuggets’ regular-season sweep of the Lakers. Add in former Laker Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who had an All-Defensive Team-caliber season and is one of the league’s best 3-and-D wings, and the Lakers will have their hands full. Caldwell-Pope only played in one of the three regular-season matchups between the teams this season (the season-opening win for the Nuggets), but he averaged 14.8 points on 48.9% shooting (44.4% from deep) against the Lakers in last year’s conference finals. With D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves, the Lakers have the offensive firepower in their backcourt to keep up with the Nuggets. Reaves averaged 16 points (43.6% shooting, 40% from 3-point range), 9.3 assists and 4.0 rebounds in the three regular-season matchups. Russell missed the Feb. 8 loss, averaging 14 points (40% shooting) and 5.0 assists in the two games he did play. The Lakers will need a significantly better version of Russell than the one who was a defensive liability and struggled offensively in last year’s conference finals, finishing with averages of 6.3 points on 32.3% shooting (13.3% from 3-point range) and 3.5 assists in the series. Even if the Lakers get that, the Nuggets have better two-way balance and consistency with their starting backcourt. EDGE: NUGGETS

STARTING FRONTCOURT

Few teams have the combination of frontcourt size, skill and versatility to match, or even exceed, the Lakers, led by LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Nuggets might be the only one. There’s no stopping Nikola Jokić, the betting favorite to win his third league MVP Award in the last four seasons. He nearly averaged a triple-double against the Lakers this season (29.3 points on 55.2% shooting, 12 rebounds, 9.0 assists) after averaging one in last year’s conference finals (27.8 points on 50.6% shooting, 14.5 rebounds, 11.8 assists). Jokić has often been too much for Davis in the post one-on-one. The Lakers struggled to contain Michael Porter Jr., who averaged 21.3 points on 60.5% shooting (52.4% from 3-point range) and 10 rebounds against L.A. in the regular season. Aaron Gordon’s versatility is a game-changer. James and Davis have had individual success against the Nuggets, with James averaging 24 points (55.4% shooting), seven assists and seven rebounds and Davis averaging 22 points, 9.3 rebounds, three blocked shots and three assists in the regular-season matchups. But the Lakers will need even more from their star duo, which is well within reason. The play of Rui Hachimura, who shot 42.2% from 3-point range this season, could be the X-factor for the Lakers. EDGE: NUGGETS

BENCHES

The Lakers’ bench received a significant boost when Gabe Vincent returned to the court on March 31 after dealing with left knee ailments for most of the season, limiting him to just 11 regular-season games. His perimeter defense will be key, especially when matched up against Murray. So will Spencer Dinwiddie’s perimeter defense and playmaking. Taurean Prince has been one of the Lakers’ best shooters, and he has been even more effective since being moved to a reserve role over two months ago. Center Jaxson Hayes has improved since the season’s start. The Nuggets will miss the experience and steady presences of Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, who played important roles for Denver last season. The Nuggets’ reserves are mostly unproven on this stage. EDGE: LAKERS

COACHES

Lakers coach Darvin Ham showed the ability to push the right buttons in last year’s playoffs. His last starting lineup change of the regular season, replacing Prince with Hachimura, was effective, with the Lakers having a 19-6 record when Russell, Reaves, Hachimura, James and Davis start. The team’s offensive uptick has been, in part, because of a consistent increase in play-call frequency. But Nuggets coach Michael Malone has his team playing even better basketball than last season when they won the championship. Compared to last season’s team, the Nuggets have a better record (57-25 vs. 53-29), a better net rating (plus-5.5 vs. 3.3), a better offensive rating (117.8 vs. 116.8) and a better defensive rating (112.3 vs. 113.5). EDGE: NUGGETS

INTANGIBLES

The Nuggets’ starting lineup was on the court together more than any other lineup in the league this season (958 minutes), recording a net rating of plus-13.6, the fifth-best mark among the 37 quintets that played at least 200 minutes. The Lakers had the best regular-season record in games that included clutch minutes, when there are less than five minutes left in the game and the point differential is five or less, at 24-9. But the Nuggets had the league’s best clutch net rating (plus-24.5). And the Lakers haven’t shown they know how to slow Denver down late in games. EDGE: NUGGETS

SERIES PREDICTION

James is healthier than he was when these teams matched up in the playoffs last year. But just as it’s difficult to imagine a team slowing the NBA’s all-time leading scorer, the same applies to Jokić. The Lakers are rolling, winning 12 of their last 15 games and 24 of their previous 34. After an up-and-down regular season, they’ve grown into a good team that can hang with any team. But the Nuggets are great. And they’ll likely prove to be too much for the Lakers in a best-of-seven series. NUGGETS IN SIX.