Emmy Experts Typing: Which spring limited series could make a big splash?
Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we revisit the packed limited series race, which has seen three new contenders premiere in the last three weeks.
Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’ve circled back to what is arguably the most competitive Emmys category this year: limited series. It feels like as good a time as any to return to my favorite race – particularly with “Shōgun” and Anna Sawai dominating the discourse, as well as the premiere of our dark horse favorite “Under the Bridge.” We talked about both shows this week with our voices, and I must say, it feels heartening — dare I type, Siri pay “Vindicated” – to have been so right about “Shōgun.” We both loved that show way back in February and the response has been off the charts. I get the sense even FX and Team “Shōgun” are confident in this one becoming the dominating force in the limited series race. I’ve got it winning not just series but Best Movie/Limited Actor and Best Movie/Limited Actress for, respectively, Hiroyuki Sanada and Sawai, and if you told me it swept the acting categories all the way down to the supporting winners (Tadanobu Asano and Moeka Hoshi), well, I’d be surprised but not shocked. But as you’ve said before and are no doubt thinking now, it’s also possible “Shōgun” just wins Best Limited Series, and its deserving actors fail to generate much competitive fire in terms of wins. This race contains multitudes is the point. Regardless, I think Sawai has positioned herself as not just a surefire nominee but perhaps the category’s real frontrunner even though she remains sixth in the odds. I believe there is a real passion behind her performance that puts her perhaps ahead of this category’s roster of Oscar-winning stars in Brie Larson, Jodie Foster and Kate Winslet. I’ll also take a bow for being an early Sawai-head since I loved her on “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” and if I were just a tiny bit more unhinged maybe I’d predict her for double nominations for the goof before getting hauled away to the hospital. Which is why, way back when we did our early Emmy picks, you were surprised that I placed Lily Gladstone in Best Movie/Limited Actress for “Under the Bridge” instead of Sawai. That was mostly for the goof, but having now watched “Under the Bridge,” I feel better about the notion of 2024 Emmy nominee Lily Gladstone — even though, as we know, that would have to come in the Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress category. You were the early adopter of “Under the Bridge,” which I also loved, and in a just world it would dominate the supporting actress category like it were “The White Lotus.” Gladstone, Riley Keough, Archie Panjabi, of course, but also the talented cast of young stars, starting with Vritika Gupta and my GOAT, Chloe Guidry. (Have I just found a new favorite young actor in Guidry? Duh, yes.) But this isn’t a just world, something “Under the Bridge” certainly understands, so I fear it might get blanked altogether above the line. What are you feeling about that show and then how do you think Sawai might fare in the lead actress race?
joyceeng: Since it’s not July or September yet, this is Anna Sawai’s best week ever? She crushed her big episode, Twitter has already given her the Emmy, and she knitted a glasses case for Stephen Colbert. The audience support is clearly there for her and hopefully that translate into Emmy support too. I think she’s win-competitive depending on how things unfold with nominations because, as I’ve said, Mariko is the show’s most sympathetic character and Sawai’s performance is the most poignant and emotional. Foster is in first in the odds, but I don’t think anyone would declare her a lock. It’s funny because if you look at the top 18 in the odds, Sawai is the newbie here, in stature, name recognition, Emmy history — all of it. And then if you look at the category, the award has historically gone to established, familiar names. The last 10 winners were Ali Wong, Amanda Seyfried, Winslet, Regina King (twice), Michelle Williams, Nicole Kidman, Sarah Paulson, Frances McDormand and Jessica Lange. That doesn’t even include four-time champ Helen Mirren and three-time champ Laura Linney. I don’t believe Sawai’s “fresh face” status would hurt her because no voter is out here like, “I’ve never heard of Anna Sawai before ‘Shōgun,’ so I can’t vote for her.” If they like you the most, they’ll vote for you! On the flip side, you can say that everyone loves a “discovery” — just like you dating your Sawai standom back to “Monarch.” (Not that it’s a competition, but I — having missed her in “F9” since I’ve never seen a “Fast and Furious” movie past the sixth one — first saw Sawai on “Pachinko,” but true Sawai stans have been riding with her since her pop star days.) Maybe now is when I note that Yoko Shimada, who played Mariko in the 1980 “Shōgun” series, lost the Emmy to Vanessa Redgrave for “Playing for Time.” Shimada did win at the Golden Globes, where “Shōgun” competed in drama. As for “Under the Bridge,” I would first like to recap your journey from being reluctant to watch it to now weeping over it. Classic you! My reaction to your initial Gladstone lead prediction — back when no one had seen it and before she moved to supporting — wasn’t surprise but Liz Lemon eye roll. Because of course you would. While you did it for the goof, there were/are a lot of recently indoctrinated Gladstone fans who think she’ll be nominated (if not win) because of her Oscar halo (and loss). And I’m just like… that’s not how it works. It’s a similar line of thinking with Andrew Scott — “Oh, he’ll get in for ‘Ripley’ because he was snubbed for ‘All of Us Strangers.'” ??? I know fans bend over backwards to try to justify hopedictions for their faves, but it’s flawed logic to think that Emmy voters are ensorcelled by Movie Stars and Oscar-adjacent people all the time. Maybe 20 years ago when there was more of a delineation between film and TV. It’s also kind of insulting to Gladstone, Scott and voters to suggest they’ll get in not for their work that is supposed to be judged but because of something that happened with another awards show celebrating another medium. /end rant. Gladstone is great on “Under the Bridge” and would be a deserving nominee — like I said the other day, if you were someone who thought she “did nothing” in “Killers of the Flower Moon,” she does stuff here — but once again, my concern is the late release. I’m waiting to see how/if the show breaks out, which I could see happening because while not exactly an easy watch, given the tragic true subject matter, it is compellingly watchable and draws you into the world and characters. And we know voters like Hulu in limited. Maybe it could be this year’s “Tiny Beautiful Things” with two acting nominations. And if things go well, it could be “Welcome to Chippendales” with four. And if things really go well, it could be “Pam & Tommy” with 10 nominations altogether?
SEE Experts slugfest: ‘Under the Bridge’ is one of the year’s dark horse Emmy contenders
Christopher Rosen: As we’ve discussed, an issue with “Under the Bridge” could be that its performances aren’t as outwardly showy as the goofy transformative stuff on display in “Pam & Tommy” and “Welcome to Chippendales.” So if it’s more like “Tiny Beautiful Things,” that makes more than Gladstone and probably Panjabi a long shot. You mentioned “Ripley,” and let’s head there. The response has been strong if not overwhelming. This is a series that people have watched and many on Film Twitter have loved. But it’s also gotten criticism from normies due to its pacing, black and white photography, and Scott’s age. I don’t think that normie noise necessarily matters, so I feel confident in “Ripley” landing a series nomination and Scott should be safely ensconced as a top candidate in the lead actor race. (Caveat here to note that I still think Netflix might shift this to drama and say another season with Scott is coming in the future.) All of this chatter about the new shows, but if you look at the odds, most expect “Lesson in Chemistry” and “True Detective: Night Country” to perform quite well. Do you think it’s possible those are our real frontrunners here and that voters might have already positioned those earlier shows as winners in their minds?
joyceeng: Normie reaction is obviously not all that matters, but it can be indicative of lacking wide appeal among voters. Plus, if we’re gonna pay attention to positive normie reaction to “Shōgun,” we can’t casually dismiss negative normie reaction to “Ripley.” I do wonder if “Ripley” might be like “Maid.” Stay with me here. Obviously incredibly different shows and “Maid” was a much bigger hit on Netflix, but it was widely predicted to get a series nomination and missed in the end. Unlike “Ripley,” it went through the winter circuit first and was snubbed at PGA (red flag that we all ignored). The two surprises that got in over it were “Inventing Anna” (10th place) and “Pam & Tommy” (14th), two “entertaining” watches. “Maid” is more serious in tone, and YMMV, but I found the length of the episodes (circa an hour) and the season (10 episodes) to be too long for the ground that was covered. So mayhaps “Ripley’s” darker tone and slow pacing might be rejected in favor of something more easily digestible. “Lessons in Chemistry” did everything it needed to do in the winter — and even notched a DGA win — so it should be good to deliver Apple TV+ its first limited series nomination. Even though it wasn’t a major smash like “Ted Lasso” by Apple standards, the best news for it is that there hasn’t been a lot of 2024 shows that have truly exploded that would possibly push it out. “True Detective: Night Country” and “Shōgun” are the biggest hits of the first quarter, and there’s room for both and “Lessons” and another late 2023 release, “Fargo.” We haven’t mentioned this week’s other new limited series, “The Sympathizer.” Its premiere linear ratings were not great, Bob, and it’s not going to be everyone’s cup of tea (except for the fourth episode). If it doesn’t take flight, I can see it being like your beloved “Station Eleven,” pulling various nominations — and probably a win for Robert Downey Jr. — but snubbed in series because it doesn’t have broad support.
SEE Emmy Experts Typing: Is ‘The Crown’ the only safe drama series nominee?
Christopher Rosen: Maybe it’s a sign of growth that despite the fact “The Sympathizer” was one of my favorites of the year, and despite the fact that I think Downey will win, even I didn’t put it into Best Limited Series. I wanted to do that, of course — the show rules and I love it! — but I immediately figured it would lack broad appeal in a race that has a lot of broad appeal titles. I still think Hoa Xuande can make it into the lead actor field, but I’d feel a lot better about that if Scott shifted to drama. You make an interesting point (as usual) about “Ripley” and the search for entertainment value among voters en masse. There aren’t a ton of “Inventing Anna” shows on the roster this year, but I’d like to present “Masters of the Air” as the broad-appeal alternative that feels like it can get into series ahead of something like “Fargo” or “Ripley.” You love this show, better known to loyal fans of us as “Hunks in the Air,” and it would complete a trifecta of limited series nominations for the Spielberg/Hanks Greatest Generation TV universe. But “Band of Brothers” and “The Pacific” came out in a different world, with a different academy, and aired on a major Emmy fave in HBO. Can Apple get two of its shows in here? Is “Masters of the Air” this year’s “Pam & Tommy”? I’ll let you take the last word!
joyceeng: I’m so proud of you. <insert “Insecure” growth gif here> “Hunks” would just be this year’s “Band of Brothers” and “The Pacific” but without the series win. Or for a more recent comp, it would be this year’s “Obi-Wan Kenobi”: male-skewing, “IP”-driven multiple nominee, including for series, but no acting. Even though the Emmys have leaned younger in recent years, the old guard demo is still around and “Hunks” is premier Dad Content. I’m not sure if it’s a lot of people’s absolute favorite show of the year, but it’s a very agreeable watch and it won’t have as many detractors as “Ripley” or “The Sympathizer” would. It also came out early enough, in January. Imagine if Apple does get two shows in and Netflix gets zero. How the turntables.
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
