How the Cavs can defend Banchero

Banchero, the reigning Rookie of the Year, is the engine of Orlando’s offense.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have a reputation as one of the league’s best defenses. But the last few weeks of the regular season have told a different story.

The Cavs’ defense over the last 15 games of the season placed them fourth-worst in the league, with only Toronto, Utah, and Charlotte being worse. To make matters worse, Cleveland’s offense was also in the bottom third.

Fortunately for the Cavs, their first-round opponent has offensive woes of their own. The Orlando Magic finished 22nd in the league in offensive rating, 24th in three-point shooting percentage, 27th in three-point attempts, and 24th again in points per game. Orlando relies on stingy defense to create more offensive opportunities, ranking second overall in defensive rating and forced turnovers per game. But they do have one potentially game-breaking offensive player in reigning Rookie of the Year Paolo Banchero.

Banchero is a 6’10” wing who averaged 22.6 points per game, demonstrating the ability to score from all areas on the floor. He can pull up from deep, take on defenders in the post, and finish with ease at the rim due to his strength and size. Banchero has improved offensively from his first season in nearly all facets, notably in three-point shooting and playmaking. His size and smoothness when shooting make him difficult to guard, and someone that the Cavs are not as easily equipped to defend.

The Cavs, as they were last season, are without a bigger wing. Isaac Okoro and Max Strus are only 6’5” and Caris LeVert is 6’6” with a poor defensive reputation. Dean Wade, who is 6’9” and has been one of the best defenders in the NBA this season, is still recovering from a mysterious knee injury. Wade may be best suited to defend Banchero, but his injury status remains up in the air.

Double-teaming Banchero in the post will almost certainly be necessary. His size will make life hell should the Cavs let him go to work on a smaller defender. He takes nearly 80% of his shots from inside the three-point line, which the Cavs are adept at defending (third-best rim defense, sixth-best mid-range defense per Cleaning the Glass), but the playoffs are where players can exert their will. Here is Banchero going off for 36 points on the road against the mighty Boston Celtics.

Multiple times in those clips, Banchero went right at Jrue Holiday in the post with spin moves or just flat-out shooting the ball over him. Against the taller Al Horford or similarly-sized Jayson Tatum, Banchero was not phased. Several times the Celtics failed to close out quick enough on Banchero and he made them pay with calmly-shot three-pointers. His handle is good enough to break down a defender and, at his height, gives him distinct advantages when finishing.

Banchero dropped 42 points on the Cavs in December (in which Cleveland won), but they held him to 50 points in the next three matchups combined (in which Cleveland went 1-2). In all of those games, Banchero got to his spots relatively comfortably and knocked down mid-range jumpers with ease. Allen and Mobley defended him primarily, though that was after switching off screens. He finished through contact, broke down defenders, spun around guys, and pulled up off screens. Banchero has a skillset that most guys his size just do not have.

The cleanest way to slow down Banchero is by forcing him to give up the ball. The rest of Orlando’s offense lacks creation and the ability to generate offense on its own aside from perhaps Franz Wagner (of similar height, but not offensive prowess). Orlando’s guards are not scary on offense. Jalen Suggs and Markelle Fultz are fairly limited shooting-wise. Cole Anthony runs hot and cold. Banchero’s assist percentage took a big jump year-over-year to 25.4% (+8.3%), good for the 96th percentile per Cleaning the Glass. This improvement came with a lower turnover rate, which is uncommon for younger players still grasping the speed of the NBA.

The Magic are not a great shooting team, relying more on shots at the rim and playing with a slower pace. They also get to the line at the highest rate in the league, at just over 24 attempts per game. Banchero is fouled on 16.5% of his shot attempts and Wagner on 12% of his, per Cleaning the Glass. That runs similar to last year’s New York Knicks, who averaged the third-most free throw attempts per game. Both teams slowed things down, relied on defense, and getting to the free throw line. Orlando has some similarities to that Knicks team from last season, though they aren’t quite as polished.

Cleveland will likely opt to put Mobley on Banchero and stick the smaller guard on Wagner. You’d think the Cavs would much rather be in the position to force Wagner to beat them than Banchero. But the improved passing of Banchero could play into the Cavs’ strategy and, if the other Magic players get hot, the series could take an interesting turn. But the Cavs will need to have a solid strategy in place to try and take Banchero out of action and limit his ability to wilt the Cavs’ defense, whether he is taking the shots or trying to set up his teammates for success.