California Forever study outlines Solano County’s economic gap
Solano County has the lowest wages and highest unemployment of any Bay Area county, according to a new study released by California Forever and authored by Michael Genest, former California Director of Finance.
The report outlines Solano County’s economic paucity compared to the other eight counties of the Bay Area across multiple metrics, including household income, employment rates, high-wage jobs, Medi-Cal dependency and more.
“Twenty years ago, average household income in Solano County was 10 percent lower than in other Bay Area counties,” said Genest, “Since then, the gap has grown so much that the average Solano County household makes 30 percent less than in other Bay Area counties. In just the last two decades, the gap has tripled. As a result, the average Solano household makes a full $40,000 less per year than the Bay Area average.”
Solano also has the highest rate of Medi-Cal dependency at nearly 35 percent, according to the study, and considerably less county revenue per capita, lagging 30 percent behind the Bay Area average at $1,936 per resident.
Solano’s employment rate among people aged 25-64 is four percent lower than the statewide average, making it one of only two Bay Area counties below the statewide average alongside Napa. Every other county in the Bay Area outperforms the state average, with San Francisco County leading the charge at over 7 percent and San Mateo at 5.7 percent.
And the jobs that the county has attracted over the years don’t stand up to those in the rest of the Bay Area, the report explains.
“Solano County has the fewest percentage of ‘high-wage” jobs in the entire Bay Area,” the report reads. “Only seven percent of jobs in Solano County pay in the range of the top 10 percent of jobs in California – and another seven percent fall into the top 20 percent of wages. This compares to 20 percent and 14 percent in the San Jose area.”
California Forever Director of Partnerships and Vacaville Planning Commissioner Michael Fortney led the press conference releasing the information, and explained that the company commissioned the report to better understand how Solano is performing relative to the rest of the Bay Area.
“My great-grandparents first moved to Solano County in 1905 and my family has been here ever since. Though, my daughters might be the first ones in my family to move away simply because of how unaffordable it has become,” Fortney, said in the release. “I joined California Forever because I believe the East Solano Homes, Jobs, and Clean Energy Initiative is the best chance for us to close the Solano Gap and keep our kids and grandkids right here.”
Genest presented his findings and drew particular attention to the gap in household income.
“The bottom line is that Solano has a real gap with the other eight Bay Area counties,” he said.
Asked later if California Forever could move the needle on this data, Genest said “It would substantially improve that gap.”
But opponents to the project remain skeptical, including Sadie Wilson of the Greenbelt Alliance, a member of the organization Solano Together. Wilson said she didn’t understand why California Forever would host a press conference and conduct a study to announce publicly available economic information, and she said she was
“It’s a little funny to be having a press release on data that is readily apparent,” she said. “Most folks in Solano County already know that there are these huge discrepancies in income housing costs and in jobs, and that is certainly on the minds of many Solano County residents. It is not new data that they are sharing.”
Regardless of the age of the information, she said, Wilson is glad to see that the company is finally interested in catching up to the economic realities of Solano County.
“It’s good that they are doing their homework,” she said, “even if it’s after they proposed a project.”
Current county officials, including those who participate in Solano Together understand the importance of bringing high-paying jobs and economic opportunity to the county, she said, but those jobs need to be balanced with housing and placed within existing cities to avoid commute concerns. Job efforts should be directed to previous areas of focus for development, she argued, such as Mare Island and Vacaville.
“There will be some percentage that live and work there, that’s great, but what about all the other people who are commuting in or commuting out?” Wilson asked.
Wilson challenged California Forever’s claim that the promises made by their Voter Guarantees would be legally binding for the company if not included in the development agreement, and questioned whether voters can trust their claims.
“There are still so many questions,” Wilson said. “And I think when they release potential employers, which they certainly will like they said I think the public ought to be aware ‘what is another empty promise?”
With no enforcement mechanism, Wilson said, the company may never have to back up their claims.
“It really is just a good faith promise,” she said, “And are these the people we want to take those promises at face value from?”
Asked if any companies had made firm commitments thus far California Forever Spokesperson Brian Brokaw asked reporters to “stay tuned.”
Asked why this information would persuade Solano County voters, Brokaw said sharing this information was simply part of the course of the campaign.
“This is part of the process of communicating with the voters of Solano County,” he said, “And over the coming months we’ll be communicating with voters directly about the project.”
Rebecca Craig, former president of the Vacaville Chamber of Commerce, said the level of investment California Forever is willing to put into Solano County is “unprecedented.”
“The development of a new full-service community that includes homes, parks, good paying jobs, renewable energy, and new schools among other services, but that also incorporates hundreds of millions of dollars of investment in existing downtowns allows all boats to rise and all residents to benefit,” Craig said. “It’s time for Solano to be a leader in fixing, not exacerbating, the Bay Area’s inequities.”
David Cates, a former chair of the Vallejo Economic Development Commission and Vallejo resident spoke at the press conference, indicating his support as well,
“I’ve reviewed countless proposals to spur economic growth in our county and none even come close to the promise and potential that California Forever has proposed through the East Solano Homes, Jobs, and Clean Energy Initiative,” Cates said. “We have a real opportunity to close this gap and I encourage voters to learn more.”