Will Attorney General Rob Bonta jump into the 2026 race for California governor?

California Attorney General Rob Bonta has been busy lately, or so it would seem from the never-ending stream of press releases from the Department of Justice.

If he’s not announcing successful prosecution for possession of child pornography (April 11) or commenting on a U.S. Supreme Court decision (April 12), Bonta’s staging a news conference to announce a lawsuit against the city of Huntington Beach for imposing its own voting requirements (April 14), releasing final regulations of one-line charities (April 16), or declaring outcome of investigation into an officer-involved shooting (April 17).

Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed Bonta to his position three years ago, succeeding Xavier Becerra, who became U.S. secretary of health and welfare.

Were Bonta merely seeking a full term as attorney general in 2026, he wouldn’t need so much publicity-seeking activity. It would be a political cakewalk.

However, if he’s setting the stage to run for governor two years hence, he would be doing exactly what he is doing: maximizing his official actions to build his image as an effective officeholder.

Bonta hasn’t said he is running for governor, but while occupying what is arguably the state’s second most powerful office, he needn’t do so yet. Attorneys general are automatically listed as potential candidates for governor.

In recent history, governors Pat Brown, George Deukmejian and Jerry Brown all had been AGs and three others made bids, Evelle Younger (1978), John Van de Kamp (1990) and Dan Lungren (1998).

While Bonta could be, and probably is, running a shadow campaign under the guise of official duties, his would-be opponents don’t have that luxury.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis is running, and a couple of recent governors used her office as a launch pad – Gray Davis in 1998 and Newsom in 2018. But they were, in a sense, flukes because lieutenant governors have virtually no official duties and draw almost no media attention.

As mayor of San Francisco, Newsom wanted to run for governor in 2010, but was shouldered aside by Jerry Brown. With obvious reluctance, instead Newsom ran for lieutenant governor after deriding the office as having “no real authority and no real portfolio.”

Despite the obscurity of her office Kounalakis does have two potential advantages – her experience as ambassador to Hungary and very substantial family wealth – that could help her gain one of the two runoff spots in the 2026 open primary. Her father, Angelo Tsakopoulos, is a wealthy land developer in Sacramento who is also a major Democratic campaign contributor.

One other statewide officer, state schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond, is also in the mix and has been making numerous public appearances in that role to boost his image. Toni Atkins, former president pro tem of the state Senate, and former Controller Betty Yee have also declared their candidacies.

So what about the Republicans? The GOP bench is thin to the point of transparency. While it may be impossible for the party to win, the presence of a Republican candidate – no matter how weak – could change the dynamics of having a large field of Democrats running in a top-two primary system.

That’s exactly what happened in the March primary for U.S. Senate. The late entry of Republican Steve Garvey, a former baseball star, blocked what could have been a Democrat vs. Democrat run-off by finishing second, thanks in part to being indirectly aided by the Democratic frontrunner, Rep. Adam Schiff.

Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.