We in Telegram
Add news
March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010
August 2010
September 2010 October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015 April 2015 May 2015 June 2015 July 2015 August 2015 September 2015 October 2015 November 2015 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019 January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August 2020 September 2020 October 2020 November 2020 December 2020 January 2021 February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 August 2021 September 2021 October 2021 November 2021 December 2021 January 2022 February 2022 March 2022 April 2022 May 2022 June 2022 July 2022 August 2022 September 2022 October 2022 November 2022 December 2022 January 2023 February 2023 March 2023 April 2023 May 2023 June 2023 July 2023 August 2023 September 2023 October 2023 November 2023 December 2023 January 2024 February 2024 March 2024 April 2024 May 2024
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
News Every Day |

Why Our World Needs Fiscal Restraint In Biggest-Ever Election Year – Analysis

Why Our World Needs Fiscal Restraint In Biggest-Ever Election Year – Analysis

The global economic and financial outlook has improved in the last six months. Inflation has fallen, financial conditions have eased, and risks to the outlook are balanced. However, many countries continue to struggle with high public debt and fiscal deficits amid new challenges from high real interest rates and dimming medium-term growth prospects.

Our latest Fiscal Monitor calls for governments to avoid slippages and focus more on rebuilding buffers and safeguarding fiscal sustainability over the medium term.

Fiscal policy shifted to be more expansionary last year after a rapid improvement in debt and deficits in the prior two years. Only half of the world’s economies tightened fiscal policy last year, down from about 70 percent in 2022.

Four years after the start of the pandemic, public spending, excluding interest payments, remained about 3 percentage points of gross domestic product above prepandemic projections in advanced economies, excluding the United States, and 2 percentage points above them in emerging market economies, excluding China. This spending level reflects the slow unwinding of crisis-era fiscal policies and the introduction of new support measures, alongside new industrial policy measures including subsidies and tax incentives. Higher nominal interest rates pushed up interest payments in most economies.

Global public debt edged up to 93 percent of GDP in 2023 and remained 9 percentage points above the prepandemic level. The increase was led by the two largest economies, United States and China, where debt rose by over 2 and 6 percentage points of GDP respectively.

These two economies also shape global fiscal developments and outlook. Slowing growth in China could weigh on global growth and trade, posing fiscal challenges for countries with strong trade and investment linkages. High and volatile government bond yields in the United States would lead to tighter financing conditions in the rest of the world.

Moderate fiscal tightening is expected to resume this year, but significant uncertainty remains.

In 2024, a record number of countries, home to more than half of the world’s population, are holding national elections. History shows governments tend to spend more and tax less during election years. Deficits in election years tend to exceed forecasts by 0.4 percentage points of GDP, compared to non-election years. In this great election year, governments should exercise fiscal restraint to preserve sound public finances.

While we project modest fiscal tightening over the medium term, it will be insufficient to stabilize public debt in many countries. Our chapter shows that, under current policies, primary deficits—which exclude interest expenses—will remain above debt-stabilizing levels in 2029 in about a third of advanced and emerging market economies and in almost a quarter of low-income developing countries. The size of necessary further adjustments varies. The required average reduction in primary deficits is particularly large for emerging markets with rising public debt-to-GDP ratios in our projections. We estimate it at 2.1 percentage points of GDP. The country groups in this paragraph include the two largest economies—the United States and China—in the appropriate aggregate.

Without further efforts, the return of fiscal policy to its prepandemic normal may take years. Spending pressures to address structural challenges—including demographic and green transitions—are becoming more pressing, while slowing medium-term growth prospects and high real interest rates are likely to further constrain fiscal space in most economies.

Countries need decisive efforts to safeguard sustainable public finances and rebuild fiscal buffers. The pace of consolidation should be calibrated depending on fiscal risks and macroeconomic conditions that each country faces. Countries will need to act resolutely in cases where sovereign risks are elevated and fiscal credibility is lacking.

Governments should immediately phase out legacies of crisis-era fiscal policy, including energy subsidies, and pursue reforms to curb rising spending while protecting the most vulnerable. Advanced economies with aging populations should contain spending pressures for health and pensions through entitlement reforms and other measures.

Revenue should keep up with spending over time. In advanced economies, targeting excessive profits as part of the corporate income tax system could further bolster revenues. Emerging market and developing economies could raise their tax revenue potential by broadening tax bases, improving the design of their tax systems, and strengthening revenue administration. Such measures could, in ideal circumstances, yield as much as an additional 9 percent of GDP, our research shows.

The foundations for sound and sustainable public finances require a medium-term approach to budgetary planning and execution. All countries can benefit from enhanced transparency of public finances and greater use of modern technology, known as GovTech. For countries in severe debt distress, orderly and timely debt restructuring is important. Continued international cooperation, including through the Group of Twenty Common Framework and the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, is crucial to facilitate an efficient debt restructuring process.

This article is based on Chapter 1 of the April 2024 Fiscal Monitor.

About the authors:

  • Era Dabla-Norris is an Assistant Director in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, where she leads the work on the IMF flagship report, the Fiscal Monitor. Previously she was in the Asia Pacific Department as mission chief for Vietnam, where she also led the work on fiscal, climate, and gender issues in the region. 
  • Vitor Gaspar has been Director of the Fiscal Affairs Department at the IMF since 2014. He was Portuguese Minister of State and Finance from 2011–13, and has held various positions in European and Portuguese institutions, including head of BEPA at the European Commission, Director-general of Research at the European Central Bank, Director of Economic Studies and Statistics at the Central Bank of Portugal, and Director of Economic Studies at the Portuguese Ministry of Finance.
  • Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro is a Deputy Division Chief in the IMF’s Fiscal Policy and Surveillance Division of the Fiscal Affairs Department. He has previously held various positions in the IMF’s Research, Fiscal Affairs, and African Departments, including as the IMF’s Resident Representative in Gabon from 2017–21. 
  • Jiae Yoo is an economist in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. Previously she worked on regional surveillance issues and Moldova in the European Department, issues related to financial crises in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, and Singapore and Nepal in the Asia and Pacific Department. Her current research interests include fiscal policy and sovereign debt-related issues.

Source: This article was published by IMF Blog

Москва

Фархутдинов поблагодарил Путина за наличие российского гимна и флага на ЧЕ по боксу

Tom Aspinall says UFC 304 start time is ‘awful’ and should be changed as Brit provides update on next opponent

China’s Huawei launches new software brand for intelligent driving

Tyson Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk undercard: Who is fighting on huge Saudi bill?

Fans slam ‘worst thing I’ve ever seen from EFL ref’ as John Eustace sent off after heated touchline bust-up

Ria.city






Read also

Exclusive: Liverpool hoping to bank £70m from Mohamed Salah transfer in 2025, says expert

Walmart launches its largest private grocery brand in decades

South Africa prepares to end captive-bred lion hunting

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on Today24.pro

News Every Day

China’s Huawei launches new software brand for intelligent driving

Today24.pro — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here


News Every Day

Chat log from R7 of 2024: Gold Coast vs West Coast



Sports today


Новости тенниса
WTA

Потапова и Павлюченкова вышли в полуфинал турнира WTA в Мадриде в парном разряде



Спорт в России и мире
Москва

Легионер "Локомотива" Ньямси: в Москве жизнь дешевле, чем в Париже



All sports news today





Sports in Russia today

Москва

«Торпедо» объявило об уходе хоккеистов Кручинина, Бауи и Малова


Новости России

Game News

Шапки женские на Wildberries — скидки от 398 руб. (на новые оттенки)


Russian.city


Москва

Актерское агентство Киноактер. Актерское агентство в Москве.


Губернаторы России
Россия

Электрокроссовер Voyah Free получил новую версию для России. Ее представили в Москве


Карлсон опубликовал интервью Дугина. Шац*: "Мы готовимся и ждём" возвращения в Россию. "Коррозия металла" приостановила свои концерты

Певец Денис Майданов рассказал о состоянии здоровья и госпитализации

Электрокроссовер Voyah Free получил новую версию для России. Ее представили в Москве

В РУДН прокомментировали инцидент в общежитии на юго-западе Москвы


Концерт «Стихи войны и мира. Баллада о своих»

Инклюзивный Фестиваль гимнастики с участием детей с ограниченными возможностями здоровья прошел в Самаре

Леонардо ДиКаприо споет голосом Фрэнка Синатры

Актерское агентство Киноактер. Актерское агентство в Москве.


Мирра Андреева обыграла Вондроушову в третьем круге турнира WTA в Мадриде

Надаль навестил в больнице 16-летнюю российскую теннисистку

Россиянка Михайлова стала чемпионкой Франции по настольному теннису

Прямая трансляция матчей Рыбакиной и Путинцевой за выход в 1/8 финала турнира в Мадриде



В Евпатории появится уютный жилой квартал “Кубики”

6 городов России, где можно увидеть белые ночи кроме Санкт-Петербурга

Героическое участие армян в СВО. Часть третья

Регистрация Авторского права. Регистрация объекта авторского права. Регистрация Авторского права на книгу. Регистрация Авторского права на музыку.


Эксперт Президентской академии в Санкт-Петербурге о строительстве спортивных объектов

ГЛАВНЫЕ НОВОСТИ НЕДЕЛИ: смертельная погоня, трагедия в общежитии и новые владельцы «Макси»

Легионер "Локомотива" Ньямси: в Москве жизнь дешевле, чем в Париже

Минское «Динамо» победило «Днепр» в чемпионате Беларуси


Шесть человек пострадали в результате ДТП с маршруткой в Москве

Всего 1,18 млн рублей за новую Lada Vesta. В Белоруссии стартовали продажи Lada Vesta Black Line

Началось. Цены на квартиры уже меняются

Источник 360.ru: трое подростков пострадали при аварии в Москве



Путин в России и мире






Персональные новости Russian.city
Тимати

Мама Тимати прошлась по интервью Шишковой: «Смотреть было брезгливо, но Аленка молодец»



News Every Day

Tom Aspinall says UFC 304 start time is ‘awful’ and should be changed as Brit provides update on next opponent




Friends of Today24

Музыкальные новости

Персональные новости