Tonys mystery: Will closed shows be nominated for Best Musical for the first time since 2013?

According to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users as of this writing, two closed shows are expected to receive nominations for Best Musical at this year’s Tony Awards. They are “Days of Wine and Roses,” which is in fifth place with 19/2 odds, and “Here Lies Love,” which is in second with 5/1 odds. Traditionally, however, closed shows tend to struggle getting Best Musical noms.

“Here Lies Love” opened way back in the summer of last year and was well received by critics. Yet it sadly never caught on commercially and ended up closing last November. Meanwhile, “Days of Wine and Roses” had already intended to be a limited run with its final performance planned for April 28 after opening in January to its own critical acclaim. Yet due to lackluster grosses, the run became even more limited, ending early on March 31.

Throughout history, there have been 271 nominees for Best Musical. But only 25 of them closed prior to the Tony nominations announcement:

“Candide” in 1956

“She Loves Me” in 1964

“Hallelujah, Baby!” (which also won) and “Illya Darling” in 1968

“Seesaw” in 1974

“The Lieutenant” and “Mack & Mabel” in 1975

“Ballroom” in 1979

“Tintypes” in 1981

“Blues in the Night” in 1983

“Quilters” in 1985

“Tango Argentino” in 1986

“Rags” in 1987

“Cyrano – The Musical” and “A Grand Night for Singing” in 1994

“Chronicle of a Death Foretold” and “Swinging on a Star” in 1996

“Juan Darien” in 1997

“Side Show” in 1998

“Parade” in 1999

“James Joyce’s The Dead” in 2000

“Amour” in 2003

“The Scottsboro Boys” in 2011

“Bring It On” and “A Christmas Story” in 2013

There are two more that closed before the Tonys aired, but those closings happened to have been after the nominations announcement: “Skyscraper” in 1966 and “Leap of Faith” in 2012.

The Tonys are as much a marketing tool as they are Broadway’s highest honors. Currently running shows especially enjoy the recognition as they can capitalize on whatever nominations/wins they get as promotion to hopefully boost ticket sales. But there are no rules that say closed shows can’t get nominated, of course. The nominating committee sees every single new main stem production throughout the season. When they vote on nominations they tend to mark what made the biggest impression on them over the past year.

Winning is a strong possibility for a closed show too. The voting body during this phase is much larger and several of them are based outside of New York, so they aren’t all able to see everything. But a portal system has been utilized where voters have to log every show they’ve managed to see throughout the season. As per the official Tony rules, “Voters are expected to attend all nominated productions. Failure to attend a performance of a production, and to mark attendance to that production in the online Tony Voter Portal, will result in a voter not being able to vote in any category in which the production has received a Tony Award nomination.”

We’ve seen a lot of closed shows get nominated for Best Play, Best Musical Revival and Best Play Revival in recent years. With that in mind, there’s no reason why they can’t still get nominated for Best Musical again as well. So there’s hope for “Days of Wine and Roses” and “Here Lies Love” to be remembered with nominations this year.

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