March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010
August 2010
September 2010 October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015 April 2015 May 2015 June 2015 July 2015 August 2015 September 2015 October 2015 November 2015 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019 January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August 2020 September 2020 October 2020 November 2020 December 2020 January 2021 February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 August 2021 September 2021 October 2021 November 2021 December 2021 January 2022 February 2022 March 2022 April 2022 May 2022 June 2022 July 2022 August 2022 September 2022 October 2022 November 2022 December 2022 January 2023 February 2023 March 2023 April 2023 May 2023 June 2023 July 2023 August 2023 September 2023 October 2023 November 2023 December 2023 January 2024 February 2024 March 2024 April 2024
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
News Every Day |

Senate rankings: 5 seats most likely to flip

The Senate battlefield is increasingly locked in as Republicans turn their attention from the primaries to the November contests in a bid to turn the chamber red.

Much has changed in the four months since The Hill last updated this space, including retirementssurprise candidacies and primary wins.

Republicans have settled on nominees in key states as they look to retake the upper chamber, while Democrats are looking at their crop of battle-tested incumbents to carry the year for them. And both sides are laser-focused on Ohio and Montana as the two most competitive contests.

At the same time, there are warning signs flashing at the top of the ticket as President Biden has been unable to reverse his polling drop, giving Republicans a shot in the arm more than seven months out from Election Day.

Both sides readily admit West Virginia will fall into the GOP column in November, with Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement from the deep red state. That means Republicans only need to flip one other state to control the upper chamber.

Here are the five other Senate seats most likely to flip.

Montana

Republicans are breathing easier after Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) ended his Senate campaign, handing the primary to businessman Tim Sheehy and giving the GOP a clearer shot at defeating Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).

Tester is a top target of Republicans, who are hopeful they can flip the deeply red state in November. And Sheehy was a top recruit of Senate Republican leaders.

Both campaigns have been on the air for months, with Tester holding a slight edge according to the latest public polling. An Emerson College/The Hill survey released in early March showed Tester with a 2-point advantage over Sheehy, who is steadily building name ID. 

Tester also leads by 10 points among independents, while 14 percent of Trump supporters report that they back the three-term Democrat. 

But whether he can overcome the impact of Trump in the state remains a real question. 

The former president won the state by more than 15 points four years ago, with that margin potentially increasing as President Biden’s standing in the polls have dipped nationwide. 

“It’s going to be tough,” one Democratic operative conceded. “But Montana has that ability to zag when people zig.”

Ohio

Republicans got the last piece of the GOP candidate jigsaw puzzle when businessman Bernie Moreno prevailed in a three-way contest for the right to take on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who is looking to overcome the state’s increasingly red hue to secure a fourth term in office.

Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)

The final weeks saw the race narrow between Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R), but Trump world and undecided Republicans powered him to a 17-point victory.

For some national Democrats, Moreno, who was endorsed by Trump, is the perfect candidate for Brown to take on this fall. The Senate Majority PAC believed it to the tune of a $2.7 million ad campaign to boost Moreno ahead of the primary. 

“I think Democrats were right to want [Moreno]. If it was Dolan, there's zero chance Brown returns,” one GOP operative said. “I think Moreno is the favorite today, but it's not a lock by any stretch.”

Ohio has trended rightward for years, but Republicans aren’t casting doubt on Brown, who has proven to be a difficult opponent for years and is in a strong spot financially

“I would never underestimate Sherrod Brown,” former Rep. Steve Stivers (R-Ohio) said. “He’s the best retail politician in Ohio.”

The GOP operative specifically cited Brown’s recent ad featuring law enforcement officers touting Brown’s work on the fentanyl crisis.

“I would run that in a GOP primary,” the operative said.

Arizona

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-Ariz.) decision not to seek a second term has removed a lot of the intrigue from the Grand Canyon State, clearing the path for what is expected to be a close race between Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Republican Kari Lake.

Sinema’s exit from the race initially boosted Lake’s chances because the sitting senator was pulling GOP support at roughly double the rate of Democratic voters.

It also pushed a number of Senate Republicans, who had stayed on the sidelines out of deference to Sinema’s track record of bipartisan work, to back Lake. And it encouraged Republican operatives who are hopeful Sinema’s decision will open up some wallets in the business community. 

Still, recent chatter hasn’t been as good for Lake, who was defeated in the 2022 gubernatorial election, as Republicans have grown increasingly bearish about her chances against Gallego.

An Emerson College poll conducted in mid-March showed Gallego receiving 44 percent support and Lake pulling in 40 percent.

Lake’s decision last week not to defend her past statements about an Arizona election official who is suing her for defamation added a layer of doubt.

“I don't think we can ever be confident in Lake,” the GOP operative said. 

Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake

Republicans are also dismayed that Gallego is already up on the airwaves in an effort to define himself, and he is doing so unopposed. For a candidate largely considered progressive and not in the mold of Democrats who’ve won statewide in Arizona, Democrats believe he is doing everything he needs to.

“There's a reason why they elected Sinema and [Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.)] is so popular,” the Democratic operative said, noting that Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) did not run a top-notch campaign against Lake last cycle, and still she pulled off a squeaker.

“She ran a meandering race, she didn't handle the debate question well. There was a lot of angst pre-election,” the operative continued. “And she ended up winning.”

Pennsylvania

The air wars in the Keystone State started in earnest this week as Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Republican David McCormick both went up with their first batch of television ads.

McCormick faces an uphill climb to oust the three-term incumbent despite his financial might, but national and state Republicans are pleased with the former Bridgewater Associates CEO’s campaign thus far.

Still, their fears that toppling Casey might be too tall of a task haven’t been fully assuaged.

The GOP operative contrasted McCormick’s route to victory for McCormick to Lake’s in Arizona. For Lake, the hope is to run as close to Trump as possible and pull off a narrow win in a state where margins of victory on either side are slim.

McCormick’s path is much different and would likely mirror what former Sen. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) pulled off in 2016, when Trump outran him in deep red and rural counties, while he ran strong in the Philadelphia collar counties and earned a 1.5-percentage point win. 

To do that, McCormick has to either give Biden supporters a reason to back him, or rely on an unforced error by Casey, who isn’t known for them. 

“He needs to get Biden/McCormick voters, and to do so you need an issue in which Casey has done something drastically wrong,” the operative said, noting that Toomey messaged heavily on the Iran Nuclear Deal that cycle to great success in Southeastern Pennsylvania. “What is that thing to peel off Biden voters, because there’s just drop off from Trump voters to Dave, and there's nothing they can do to fix that.”

“[McCormick’s campaign] is not doing it wrong. I just fear they can be perfect and still not be able to win,” the operative continued. 

According to the latest survey conducted by Emerson/The Hill, Casey leads McCormick by 4 percentage points. The incumbent Democrat holds that advantage despite Trump topping Biden by the same margin. 

Wisconsin 

The entrance of Eric Hovde, a wealthy businessman, into the Wisconsin Senate race is giving the GOP something it hasn't had since Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) first won her seat 12 years ago: a real chance at defeating her.

According to the latest Emerson/The Hill survey, Baldwin holds a 3-point advantage over Hovde, who is expected to spend in the neighborhood of $20 million of his own money on the contest. Hovde went on the air almost immediately after he announced his campaign and has been running television ads since. 

Republicans are also heartened by some key numbers early on, including that Baldwin is short of 50 percent support in polls and that only 42 percent approve of her work, according to the latest Marquette Law School poll taken in January. 

Democrats, though, remain confident that Baldwin’s winning ways will continue and that she is doing everything she needs to. 

They also constantly point to their ongoing attempt to define Hovde as an out of touch carpetbagger who is trying to nab the seat and isn’t “one of us.” 

“The contrast there is great,” said a Democratic strategist with experience working on Senate races, pointing to Baldwin’s recent Dairyland tour and emphasis on rural areas. “Tammy talking about rural priorities and going to places Dems don't always go in Wisconsin compared to a guy who flew in from California to try to buy a Senate seat.”

News Every Day

The Masters 2024: Rory McIlroy feels he can still win at Augusta National despite swing ‘feeling horrific’ in round two

Couple who won Come Dine With Me posed as customs officers to steal drugs as part of scam

The Masters 2024: Rory McIlroy feels he can still win at Augusta National despite swing ‘feeling horrific’ in round two

Четвертый том в серии ко Дню космонавтики

Men’s volleyball: Long Beach sweeps UCI for Big West title; top seeds win in MIVA tourney

Ria.city






Read also

Louisiana bill advances to rid testing for florist licenses

Love Island winner Sammy Root reveals surprising new career away from TV a year after winning show

Elon Musk hints new users will be charged if they want to post on X

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on Today24.pro

News Every Day

Четвертый том в серии ко Дню космонавтики

Today24.pro — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here


News Every Day

Couple who won Come Dine With Me posed as customs officers to steal drugs as part of scam



Sports today


Новости тенниса
WTA

Касаткина вошла в десятку Чемпионской гонки WTA



Спорт в России и мире
Москва

Кубок России. ЦСКА уверенно шагает в финал пути РПЛ.



All sports news today





Sports in Russia today

Москва

Парашютный Фестиваль «Небофест 2024» состоится 26 мая в Нижнем Новгороде


Новости России

Game News

Duskfall — RPG-игра в формате данжен-кроулера на Android


Russian.city


Москва

Собянин: Более 600 школ и детсадов построили в Москве с 2011 года


Губернаторы России
Евгений Касперский

Касперский представил образец российского смартфона на KasperskyOS


Шапки женские вязаные на Wildberries, 2024 — новый цвет от 392 руб. (модель 466)

Социальная работа на предприятии: современные тенденции и интересные кейсы

Шапки женские на Wildberries — скидки от 398 руб. (на новые оттенки)

Важная помощь бойцам, наступающим у Работино и Угледара, от читателей «Русской Весны» (ВИДЕО)


Моргенштерн* назвал близкого друга «чертом» и позвал его на стрим

Юрий Грымов рассказал о съемках слишком "жесткого" клипа для Дианы Арбениной

Мама Тимати поделилась милым видео с 10-летней Алисой — подписчиков смутила одна деталь

Моргенштерн* сделал Лизе Василенко предложение — она ответила


Циципас вышел на 12-е место в ATP по призовым за карьеру. Он заработал $30 млн

Касаткина вошла в десятку Чемпионской гонки WTA

Теннисист Рублев со счетом 1:6 проиграл тренировочный сет Надалю в Барселоне

Рыбакина? Назван главный конкурент Соболенко



Тема дня: Росавтодор: в 2024 году до четырех полос расширят 376 км федеральных трасс в рамках капремонта

Елена ШЕРИПОВА рассказала о секретах успешного прохождения кастинга в модельную школу

Аддитивные технологии помогают "Норникелю" обрести импортонезависимость

Шапки женские на Wildberries — скидки от 398 руб. (на новые оттенки)


Собянин: Авторы материалов для «МЭШ» получили свыше семи тысяч грантов

"Предстоящая встреча Путина и Пашиняна может стать переломным моментом в российско-армянских отношениях": Михаил Александров

Артем Быстров спасает родной город под хиты «Землян» и «Самоцветов»: телеканал ТНТ покажет комедийный сериал Okko «Очевидное невероятное» по рассказам Кира Булычева

Из Европы надуло. Врач рассказал, как аллергикам гулять в парках Москвы


Агентство Apriori Arts представляет серию концертов «Майская ночь» в Галерее “Нико”

«Гонка Героев» открывает сезон при поддержке ENERGY

В Подмосковье запустят производство комплектующих для электростанций на земле за 1 рубль

У Сталина было не два родных сына, а четыре. И обо всех он заботился по мере своих возможностей



Путин в России и мире






Персональные новости Russian.city
Григорий Лепс

В Ярославле две женщины подрались на концерте Григория Лепса



News Every Day

Четвертый том в серии ко Дню космонавтики




Friends of Today24

Музыкальные новости

Персональные новости