Royals Review Roundtable: The 2024 season
Our writers discuss the off-season and expectations for this year.
After one of the busier off-seasons in recent Royals history, the 2024 regular season is finally here! The Royals spent over $100 million on free agents, adding infielder Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson, outfielder Hunter Renfroe, starting pitchers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, and relievers Will Smith and Chris Stratton, as well as trading for relievers Nick Anderson and John Schreiber. But all that was overshadowed by a long-term deal for star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., giving Royals fans hope this team could be turning a corner.
We brought our writers together to get their thoughts on the team on the eve of the season.
The Royals spent a lot of money this off-season, was it well spent?
Jacob Milham: This answer may not age well, but I think the money was spent very deliberately and well. The 2023 roster had holes in every facet and the Royals attacked the problem with several quality signings, rather than just one or two splashy ones. Will the position players signed pan out? I think that is the better question.
Max Rieper: I think you could quibble with which starting pitchers they should have signed with the benefit of hindsight, but Lugo and Wacha are solid pitchers by most metrics with few red flags. I wouldn’t have brought in Frazier and Hampson, but I get their concerns about depth. The Renfroe signing is still a bit of a head-scratcher, especially with Tommy Pham - a player who gets on base and has the kind of red-ass a young team might need - still sitting at home. But overall the pitching upgrades were a huge net benefit that really raise the floor for this team.
Matthew LaMar: I do wish the Royals would have made one more free agent signing, specifically Marcus Stroman. But the Royals went out and actually spent the free agent money they had, so the answer to the question is—yes! You can’t forget the Bobby Witt Jr. extension, too.
Hokius: I really like all the pitchers they brought in at the prices they spent, but the position players, other than Hampson, make me scratch my head. I really thought they could have used at least one true upgrade instead of veteran safety nets. So...call it a C?
Who do the Royals need to have a breakout season from the most?
Matthew LaMar: The Royals need a third position player anchor. I am fairly certain that Witt and Vinnie Pasquantino are going to be very good. MJ Melendez or Maikel Garcia are the most likely options, but they desperately need a third good position player, somebody who can carry the offense when needed and contribute defensively.
Hokius: MJ Melendez, Michael Massey, or Maikel Garcia need to have a much better season than last year if the Royals hope to compete even in the awful AL Central. It honestly might take two of them.
Max Rieper: I think the offense will likely be below league-average any way you slice it, but the pitching could be quite good if Brady Singer rebounds to his 2022 form. I’m hoping his awful season last year is attributable to the time he missed in spring training due to the World Baseball Classic, or perhaps some adjustments he failed to make that he has ironed out this year. But he not only has tremendous potential, we’ve seen him actually pitch well in a full season.
Jacob Milham: The Royals NEED Michael Massey to break out in a big way. I think Kansas City hesitated on trading away other middle infield prospects because of Massey’s so-so 2023 campaign. Adding Adam Frazier to the fold cast further doubt on Massey’s organizational standing. The team signaled their confidence in Massey this offseason, but he has a short leash. The only thing that will give him more leeway is producing in a big way at the plate.
What makes you nervous about this team?
Hokius: The depth. The bullpen depth is pretty promising, but they’ve got no one I feel great about starting a game who isn’t already in the rotation other than the injured Kris Bubic and that lineup is already thin (barring at least one breakout performance) even before injuries start affecting it.
Jacob Milham: The bullpen’s age gives me some concern. Injuries are impossible to avoid, but the bullpen lacks a workhorse right now. James McArthur could become the guy, but relying on a mix of Chris Stratton, Will Smith, and Nick Anderson isn’t sustainable.
Max Rieper: They have a few guys that show an ability to draw walks - Vinnie, Maikel Garcia, MJ Melendez to an extent. But this is still a team that will likely finish near the bottom of the league in walk rate and on-base percentage with more than a few guys likely to post an OBA around .300. So there will be offensive droughts to be sure.
Matthew LaMar: Nothing makes me nervous about this team, to be perfectly honest. They’re not good enough for me to be nervous about anything specific, and with the draft lottery how it is they could be merely bad and still nab a top pick in the draft. What makes me nervous about the organization as a whole is the farm system, which stinks right now.
Give us one bold prediction about this team.
Matthew LaMar: The rotation becomes one of the best in the American League, not necessarily because they have a big ceiling but because they don’t have any major weak points and can reliably churn out a large portion of decent innings no matter who’s pitching. This necessitates Brady Singer bouncing back and one of Alec Marsh/Daniel Lynch managing to hold down the fifth spot in the rotation.
Hokius: They’ll still be within a competitive distance of the division leader at the All-Star Break.
Max Rieper: The farm system takes a big jump up in organizational rankings, with Gavin Cross, Blake Mitchell, and Trevor Werner all on mid-season top 100 prospect lists.
Jacob Milham: Angel Zerpa will push his way into the rotation by season’s end. I constantly overlooked Zerpa last season, but he is still young and showed promise this spring. He may not have elite stuff, but pitching to contact works in Kauffman Stadium. If Jordan Lyles falls out completely or Kris Bubic is delayed, Zerpa makes sense.
How many games do the Royals win and where do they place in the division?
Max Rieper: 75 wins, third in the division but within a game or two of second-place Cleveland and fourth-place Detroit.
Jacob Milham: I predict a 20-game improvement from Kansas City. 76 wins will not be enough to win the division, but shows the progress this fanbase desperately needs. But, those wins will be enough for a third-place finish in the AL Central.
Hokius: 84. Second.
Matthew LaMar: Third place, 74 wins. Could they win more? Yes, of course. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won anything up to 84 games. But they have to prove it, and they were so incredibly bad last year that they can improve by a huge amount and still be incredibly bad. So 74 wins it is.