2024 Seattle Mariners Farm System Overview: Tier 2

The minor league season is nearly upon us

Welcome back, prospect lovers! It’s been a minute since the previous installment of this series (if you need a refresher, click here) and with the minor league season just around the corner, here’s the penultimate edition of LL’s prospect rankings. Enjoy!

7. Jonatan Clase, OF

Age: 21 / B/T: S/R / Signed: 2018 / Final level in 2023: AA / MLB ETA: 2025

Clase, signed for just $35,000 out of the Dominican Republic, has been a tireless worker throughout his tenure as a Mariner and has become one of the more electrifying players to watch in the entire system. A true 80 grade runner, Clase possesses elite speed that has tremendous influence on a pitcher when he’s on base. Stealing a ridiculous 79 bases in 2023, Clase can change a game with his speed and utilizes it well in the field where he plays an above average centerfield.

The offensive outlook is flawed, but there’s certainly a lot to like. Clase has good quality of contact and can rocket balls from both sides of the plate, but the contact ability took a step back as he ascended to AA Arkansas. He’s always been adept at drawing walks and he’s maintained solid chase rates despite the spike in competition level, but the contact rates were hovering right around average and below where you’d like to see a top prospect. The K rate was too high last year and he’ll need to tone it down to become truly elite, but there’s still plenty of reason to believe Clase can get things sorted out and he’s got a real shot to debut for the M’s this year if he does. Until then, he’ll remain in Arkansas to hone his offensive craft. If there’s anyone in the system that I know will work his tail off to maximize his capabilities, it’s Clase and it’s not close. I have faith he’ll ascend into a productive major league player that excites night in and night out.

6. Felnin Celesten, SS

Age: 18 / B/T: S/R / Signed: 2023 / Final level in 2023: NA / MLB ETA: 2028

Celesten is perhaps the biggest unknown entering the 2024 season in the entire system. Regarded highly out of the Dominican Republic in last year’s international pool, Celesten was was ranked as the #2 prospect in the class behind the generationally talented catcher Ethan Salas. In fact, Celesten has been lauded as the highest ceiling shortstop to come out of the DR in the last decade. With an above average hit tool, plus or better power, plus defensive actions and plus running ability, there (theoretically) isn’t much Celesten can’t do on a baseball diamond. All that’s left is to prove it on the field.

Celesten was slated to start the year stateside and skip the DSL entirely, but a hamstring injury kept him out of play for the year. With more experience, the advanced hitter could rocket up the rankings and might have the highest ceiling of any prospect in the system. The natural expectation will be for him to debut with the ACL Mariners, but a hot start could lead to a quick promotion akin to Michael Arroyo last season. No one really knows what Celesten is on the field at present, but he’s got a real shot at making this ranking look foolish by year’s end.

5. Tyler Locklear, 1B

Age: 23 / B/T: R/R / Drafted: 2022 / Final level in 2023: AA / MLB ETA: 2024

Tyler Evan Locklear is a Certified Professional Hitter. It’s rare to see a first base only prospect rank so highly in a minor league system but Locklear is the rare exception that is good enough to sit firmly in the upper echelon of a deep and exciting system. The offensive profile really doesn’t have an obvious hole in it. He hits the ball hard, doesn’t strike out all that much, takes his walks, hits the ball in the air, and frequently gets to his pull side to maximize his power potential. His plate discipline has been excellent and it’s rare for him to chase poor pitches. After annihilating Everett to the tune of a .305/.422/.549 slash line, Locklear was sidelined due to a broken bone in his arm on a HBP, an unfortunate fluke injury. He returned, however, and was quickly promoted to Arkansas. Typically the hardest jump to make in all of the minors, Locklear had an OPS of .786 in a Dickey-Stevens park that is notorious for suppressing right handed power hitters. On the year, Locklear ran a 20% K rate compared to a 12.7% walk rate, both excellent clips. There’s a whole lot to love in the offensive package.

Outside of his prowess at the plate, Locklear is a good athlete and can make some plays at first. Originally a third baseman through college, he’s got a good throwing arm and has solid lateral ability for a first baseman. He’s also got some sneaky speed, managing to go 12/12 in stolen bases on the year. He’s not going to be a threat to steal much at the major leagues, but it’s a testament to his ability at getting down the line. While the bat is far and away the calling card, he’s not a complete nothing burger on the base paths or in the field like some Mariner first baseman of recent history. Locklear is likely to debut for the major league club in 2024 and should be one of the first bats called up should the team need one. Pay attention, people: The Locklear is coming.

4. Lazaro Montes, OF/1B

Age: 19 / B/T: L/R / Signed: 2022 / Final level in 2023: A / MLB ETA: 2027

Montes was the one prospect on this list that garnered the most debate on his final placement in these rankings. Right in between tiers, we opted to place him in the second tier due to his increased level of variance compared to the top three. That said, Montes is no second-rate prospect. A hulking lefty slugger that is already posting elite exit velocities in the minors, Montes has a chance to be a special talent at the plate.

Montes, one of two headliners in Seattle’s January 2022 class of international signees alongside Michael Arroyo, signed for a hefty $1.5 million out of Cuba at 17 years of age. He quickly showed his prowess at the plate by destroying the DSL to the tune of a 1.007 OPS. Though his production was undeniable, a concerning strikeout rate north of 33% was a major red flag that many evaluators thought would lead to his quick demise stateside. This, however, did not happen. At all. Between the ACL and Modesto, Montes greatly reduced his strikeouts to a manageable 25% and increased his BB% to nearly 18% (!!!). All this combined to a 1.001 OPS on the year and proved he’s got more than chance to assert himself as a fearsome slugger.

Montes isn’t without flaw. The contact rates, while not as bad as some have suggested, aren’t where you’d ideally like them to be at this low in the minors. Additionally, Montes isn’t exactly dynamic in the field and likely ends up at first base. There isn’t much value with his legs and he’s not a threat to steal a base though his undeniable hustle is a joy to watch on the basepaths. He may not be moving very fast, but he’s moving exactly as fast as he possibly can. With some improvements to his contact rates, Montes could be one of the most dynamic sluggers Seattle has seen since the Nelson Cruz days of Mariner history.

That wraps up this tier of the Mariner farm system. With just one tier left to go and mere days from the beginning of the minor league season, our minor league round ups will begin very shortly alongside some supplementary draft content similar to last year. We appreciate all of you readers for supporting the minor leagues as diligently as we do and we absolutely cannot wait to get this year of baseball going! As always, GOMS.