We in Telegram
Add news
March 2010 April 2010 May 2010 June 2010 July 2010
August 2010
September 2010 October 2010
November 2010
December 2010
January 2011
February 2011 March 2011 April 2011 May 2011 June 2011 July 2011 August 2011 September 2011 October 2011 November 2011 December 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 September 2012 October 2012 November 2012 December 2012 January 2013 February 2013 March 2013 April 2013 May 2013 June 2013 July 2013 August 2013 September 2013 October 2013 November 2013 December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 March 2014 April 2014 May 2014 June 2014 July 2014 August 2014 September 2014 October 2014 November 2014 December 2014 January 2015 February 2015 March 2015 April 2015 May 2015 June 2015 July 2015 August 2015 September 2015 October 2015 November 2015 December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 March 2016 April 2016 May 2016 June 2016 July 2016 August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 September 2017 October 2017 November 2017 December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 June 2019 July 2019 August 2019 September 2019 October 2019 November 2019 December 2019 January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 July 2020 August 2020 September 2020 October 2020 November 2020 December 2020 January 2021 February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 August 2021 September 2021 October 2021 November 2021 December 2021 January 2022 February 2022 March 2022 April 2022 May 2022 June 2022 July 2022 August 2022 September 2022 October 2022 November 2022 December 2022 January 2023 February 2023 March 2023 April 2023 May 2023 June 2023 July 2023 August 2023 September 2023 October 2023 November 2023 December 2023 January 2024 February 2024
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29
News Every Day |

Effect of Global Warming on Wealth

I’ve often cited the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) conclusion that if we do nothing about global warming this century, GDP in 2100 will be 3% lower than it would have been. This November 2022 report by Charles Kenny, a senior fellow with the Center for Global Development puts the number even lower. He writes:

By AR6 the IPCC was suggesting “under high warming (>4°C) and limited adaptation, the magnitude of decline in annual global GDP in 2100 relative to a non-global-warming scenario could exceed economic losses during the Great Recession in 2008–2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.” (World GDP fell from $62.9 trillion to $62.1 trillion 2008 to 2009, and $84.7 trillion to $81.9 trillion 2019 to 2020, these are one-year declines, and the IPCC is suggesting climate change might cause the same impact over 90 years).

The IPCC’s estimates are toward the low end. A recent review of the literature using estimates of the impact of past temperature changes (alone) to forecast future impacts suggests global GDP will be 1-3 percent lower than otherwise in 2100 due to the impact of climate change (with a 95 percent confidence interval of -8.5 percent to +1.8 percent) consistent with most integrated assessment models, although some of those models suggest an impact up to 10 percent in the presence of extreme events like the collapse of the Greenland Ice Shelf.

He goes on to point out:

But even with Burke et al.’s approach, the annual global growth rate under their baseline scenario is 3.1 percent. Absent climate change, the global economy would be about 15.6 times larger in 2100 than 2010. They suggest the impact of climate change might be to bring that down to about 12 times larger.

A friend who lives in Miami called yesterday and said, “What if I accept the 3% claim? That doesn’t tell me what happens to wealth.”

He explained his point with an example. With global warming, coastal Florida might get seepage of seawater into their fresh water. That would he a wealth loss because they would have to spend substantial resources to use, say, desalinization. I answered that that’s Florida and I don’t how general that is, so that in the grand scheme of things, it might not be a large wealth loss. But we both recognized that I’m speculating. There could be other effects in various parts of the United States and the rest of the world that would cause large wealth losses.

It turns out that Kenny makes a related point. He writes:

One of the greater war crimes of the second half of the twentieth century was the massive and indiscriminate bombing of Indochina by the United States in the 1960s. The aerial campaign dropped more bombs than were used in the entirety of World War II. In North Vietnam, Operation Rolling Thunder destroyed more than half of the bridges and nearly 60 percent of the power plants alongside schools and houses, and killed at least tens of thousands of people. In 2011, Ted Miguel and Gerard Roland went looking for evidence of the long-term economic impact of the devastation. But they could “find no robust adverse impacts of US bombing on poverty rates, consumption levels, electricity infrastructure, literacy, or population density through 2002.” It was as if the mass destruction and loss of innocent life had never happened.

It would take an obscene amorality to suggest “well then, it didn’t matter.”

I think those who look at long-run economic forecasts of the impact of climate change and ask: “how can they be so small?” or look at those impacts and argue “see, it doesn’t matter” might be falling into a related error. It is true the long-term aggregate GDP impact of climate change might look underwhelming in much of the economics literature. In a way that should come as little surprise, in that the long-term aggregate impact of past disasters often looks pretty small in the literature too. But that doesn’t mean climate change is a small problem any more than those past disasters were; it means that long-term global GDP trends probably miss a large part of a big problem. “Lukewarmers” who use long-term global GDP forecasts to downplay the urgency of climate change are considerably too sanguine, then. But “doomsayers” who see the whole world heading toward a future amounting to a hotter version of the stone age are also wrong. The economic impact of climate change will vary considerably by country, with much of the effect driven by shorter-term shocks. And misdiagnosing the climate problem—either as small or universally existential—matters: it drives poor choices in the global policy response. The upcoming climate conference in Sharm El Sheikh is an opportunity to fix that.

Kenny’s analogy with bombing causes him to fall into a trap. It causes him to look just for the negative effects of global warming. But global warming is not like bombing: it also would have positive effects.

Kenny links to an IPCC chapter that discusses many of the bad effects of global warming that might be expected. But the IPCC chapter falls into the same intellectual trap that Kenny has fallen into: looking only at bad effects. There are also good effects and, as far as I can tell from perusing the lengthy chapter, the authors discuss literally none of them. “What good effects?” you might ask. Well, that’s easy for someone [me] from the cold Manitoba prairie to answer. There would be warmer weather further up north and, therefore, there would be farming further north in Manitoba, in Canada generally, in Norway and Sweden, and in Russia than there is now. Take a look at that chapter and you will see none of this.

David Friedman has done a great job on this specific issue of farming and food (here and here, for example.) It’s hard to find much else.

Here’s my more-thought-out prior on why the wealth losses would be relatively small. People would have time to adapt. Think about buildings on the coast that might be sitting in a foot of water. If that happened, it would likely happen in 40 or so years. So when people replace old buildings with new buildings, much of which they would have done anyway, there’s not much added cost.

Has anyone taken a careful look at the wealth losses and compared them to the wealth gains? If you answer, please include links. Comments that have lots of links generally get held up before they are posted. So a safe way is to type out the link rather than include a hot link. Your option.

 

(0 COMMENTS)
Архангельск

Карелия вошла в состав нового военного округа

Top 10 Animated TV Series of 2023

Amsterdam Stunning Sunny Hour Winter 2024 Amsterdam Walking Tour 4K

Reliving the Past through Old Photos

1960s USA - Real Street Scenes of Vintage America - Colorized

Ria.city






Read also

Scared MPs working from home will be a victory for anti-Semitic thugs and fast track to disintegration of our democracy

R.I.P. To Buddy Duress, One Of The Best Parts Of The Safdie Brothers’ ‘Good Time’

Small Beginnings

News, articles, comments, with a minute-by-minute update, now on Today24.pro

News Every Day

Reliving the Past through Old Photos

Today24.pro — latest news 24/7. You can add your news instantly now — here


News Every Day

Beautiful Outdoor Garden Furniture, Garden Library Interior, Hidden Book Nook Garden Design



Sports today


Новости тенниса
WTA

Теннисистка Калинская поднялась на 16 строчек в обновленном рейтинге WTA



Спорт в России и мире
Москва

Тверские хоккеисты победили команду из Белгорода на ГУМ-катке в Москве



All sports news today





Sports in Russia today

Москва

Тверские хоккеисты победили команду из Белгорода на ГУМ-катке в Москве


Новости России

Game News

Мафия-НН: Вечер пролетел, окутанный пламенем веселья и непредсказуемости.


Russian.city



Губернаторы России
#123ru.net

«Газпром-Медиа Холдинг» и «Триикс медиа» снимут сериал о подвиге героев подполья Таганрога в годы Великой Отечественной войны


Дептранс: движение по улице Большая Дмитровка закрыли для прощания с Лебедевым

Электронные библиотеки притягивают больше пользовательского трафика

Американский журналист Хинкл раскрыл детали ужина с Лавровым

Шапки женские зимние на Wildberries — скидки от 398 руб. (на новые оттенки)


Рэпер ST исполнил хит «Дай ему сил» на церемонии вручения премии «Знание»

Рассылка Песни или Музыки на все Радиостанции России, СНГ и Мира, а также по всем СМИ России.

Нетребко привела 15-летнего сына к полуголой красотке — трясет грудью и попой

Арбенина возмутилась отменой концертов во Владивостоке и на Сахалине


Глава ФТР Тарпищев объяснил поражение Калинской нервной усталостью

Янчук: финал WTA 1000 в Дубае — успех для Калинской

Теннисистка Калинская поднялась на 16 строчек в обновленном рейтинге WTA

Медведев признался, что легко пережил поражение от Синнера в финале Australian Open



Шапки женские вязаные на Wildberries, зима 2024 — новый цвет от 392 руб. (модель 466)

Шапки женские зимние на Wildberries — скидки от 398 руб. (на новые оттенки)

ENERGY дарит тур в Мексику на выступление Джареда Лето

«Атомайз» вручил киберспортсмену первую NFT-награду


Встреча бывших одноклассников 23 февраля закончилась уголовным делом

«Атомайз» вручил киберспортсмену первую NFT-награду

Обращение КС РАО к Президенту РФ по поводу незаконно удерживаемых Азербайджаном военнопленных и представителей арцахской политической элиты

«Газпром-Медиа Холдинг» и «Триикс медиа» снимут сериал о подвиге героев подполья Таганрога в годы Великой Отечественной войны


Сергунина подвела итоги 10 лет работы столичного проекта «Город идей»

Американский журналист Хинкл раскрыл детали ужина с Лавровым

Прием заявок на участие в региональном этапе конкурса «Семья года» начался в Подмосковье

Республика Конго начинала экспорт СПГ. С проекта Congo LNG скоро будет отправлена первая партия



Путин в России и мире






Персональные новости Russian.city
Концерт

Распространение Клипа, Выступления, Концерта или Песни в Интернете.



News Every Day

Amsterdam Stunning Sunny Hour Winter 2024 Amsterdam Walking Tour 4K




Friends of Today24

Музыкальные новости

Персональные новости