Democratic analysts sound alarm on more 'grim' Biden polling showing diminishing support in key voter groups

Several political experts and pollsters issued dire warnings for President Biden as several polls show him losing to Donald Trump in key areas, as one Democratic pollster said a November survey of voters showed "grim" results.

Thomas Edsall, a New York Times opinion columnist, spoke to several pollsters, analysts and more about a poll conducted by Democracy Corps, a Democratic advisory group founded by James Carville and Stan Greenberg. The group conducted a survey of 2,500 voters between Nov. 5 and Nov. 11.

Greenberg, according to Edsall, summarized the results in an email and wrote, "this is grim."

In the Democratic voter base, "Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, LGBTQ+ community, Gen Z, millennials, unmarried and college women give Trump higher approval ratings than Biden," Greenberg told the Times columnist.

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The survey found that Biden and the Democrats only lead by two points on "the president will not be an autocrat," and only lead by one on "protecting democracy."

"There was a tie on making democracy more secure," Edsall wrote. "Particularly worrisome for Democrats, who plan to demonize Trump as a threat to democracy, are the advantages Trump and Republicans have on opposing extremism (3 points), getting beyond the chaos (6 points) and protecting the Constitution (8 points)."

Other analysts and political scientists told Edsall that it was not looking good for the president.

Jim Kessler, a senior vice president at the left-leaning think tank Third Way, told Edsall that there were clear danger signs, despite the falling price of gasoline and decreasing inflation rates. 

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"Biden won in 2020 because he was perceived as having a more positive brand than the Democratic Party," Kessler said. "That brand advantage over the Democratic Party is now gone. Exhibits A and B are crime and immigration."

Kessler said voters hear "nothing" from the president on either issue because it splits the Democratic base.

"But if you are silent on these issues, it is like an admission of guilt to voters. They believe you do not care or are dismissive of their very real concerns. That means Biden must accept some griping from the left to get this story out to the vast middle," he continued.

A political scientist at Harvard, Ryan Enos, told Edsall that Biden would "likely lose" if the election were held today. 

Another political scientist, Rogers Smith, said Biden's "visible infirmities interfere with his ability to reassure the electorate," Edsall wrote. 

"This belief is reinforced by the reality that Biden does not inspire confidence in his vigor or energy in most of his public presentations. The problem is particularly acute among young voters but goes throughout the electorate, Democrats and Republicans alike. It means that voters don’t give much weight to Biden’s arguments on the issues," he said. 

However, Smith said, Democrats were "trapped."

"None will challenge Biden; he must choose to step aside. If he did so, he would feel compelled to support Kamala Harris. But most Democrats, and probably Biden himself, rightly believe that she would do even worse than he is doing," he added.