NFL Week 7 Betting Recap, Bad Beats and Big Parlay Payouts
Sportsbooks posted arguably their biggest win of the season over NFL public bettors in Week 7. Losses by the Lions, Dolphins, Bills, and the Browns winning but failing to cover, resulted in massive swings in favor of sportsbooks.
The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs won their sixth straight game after beating Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Their division dominance has the club in great shape in their quest for an eighth consecutive AFC West title.
The Falcons, who took sole possession of the NFC South, own the dubious distinction of being the only NFL first-place team with a negative (-18) net point differential. The wild oddity has also perplexed oddsmakers as Atlanta owns a disappointing 2-5 against the spread (ATS) record.
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Lamar Jackson has become a strong contender for 2023 NFL MVP honors after a dominant performance in the Ravens' 38-6 victory over the Lions. Detroit, who entered Week 7 winning four straight games by a double-digit margin, had no answer for Jackson who threw for 357 yards while accounting for four total touchdowns (three passing, one rushing).
Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports
From a betting perspective, the Chiefs, Dolphins, Lions, Ravens and Jaguars all own the best (ATS) marks at 5-2. After beating Green Bay, Denver (1-5-1 ATS) earned their first cover versus the number this season, leaving Carolina (0-5-1 ATS) as the only team which has failed to cover the spread .
“National Tight End Day” lived up to its billing as several tight ends around the league enjoyed their best games of the season. With his girlfriend Taylor Swift once again in attendance, Travis Kelce hauled in 12 receptions for 179 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. In Baltimore, Mark Andrews grabbed four receptions for 63 yards and two touchdowns, earning the accolades of NBA superstar LeBron James.
Mark Andrews on National TE Day going crazy!! Makes total sense. Haha!
— LeBron James (@KingJames) October 22, 2023
Fellow tight ends Darren Waller, Mike Gesicki, Gerald Everett and Dallas Goedert also all scored on Sunday to the delight of fantasy managers and player proposition bettors.
'National Tight End Day' Results In Impressive Parlay Win
A bettor named @ThaLoungeSports on ‘X’ placed a $200 wager that three tight ends would all score a touchdown on “National Tight End Day.”
The investment involved Baltimore's Mark Andrews (+250), Kansas City's Travis Kelce (+101) as well as Eagles' Dallas Goedert (+286) all finding paydirt on the day celebrating their position.
When Andrews and Kelce both scored in the early slates on Sunday, the bet only needed Goedert to score in the Sunday night showdown with Miami.
The $200 three-tight end wager returned an impressive $5,494 in early fashion when the Eagles star tight end scored the first touchdown of the game.
Eight-Player ‘Anytime Touchdown’ Parlay Glory
One lucky bettor named @Willybeaman2 on ‘X’ turned a $5 ‘Anytime Touchdown’ player proposition parlay bet into an incredible hit on Sunday.
The investment involved two tight ends Darren Waller and Mark Andrews as well as six running backs: Brian Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Gus Edwards, Jonathan Taylor and Kareem Hunt all finding the end zone in their respective games.
When all eight players scored, the $5 wager at odds of +194,300, returned $9,720.
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Betting Landscape
In Week 7, bettors witnessed home teams go 8-4 (SU) and 9-3 ATS. Home teams own a slight 53-49 SU (51.9%) edge, while road teams own a slight advantage of 50-49-3 (ATS) (51%) on the season.
*Editor's Note: International games (3) are not included in home / road stats
Bettors watched favorites post both a 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS mark, leaving favorites with a 55-47-3 ATS (53.9%) edge on the year.
Games once again were lower scoring than oddsmakers expected posting a 7-5 mark to the under on the week. On the year, unders own a sizable lead with a mark of 63-41-1 (60.6%).
Bad Beat
Second Half Futility, Burns 'Over' Bettors In KC-LAC Showdown
The Chargers and Chiefs got off to a hot start in their AFC West clash combining for 41 first half points. After a battle of field goals in the first quarter, Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert combined to lead their squads to five combined touchdowns in the second quarter.
The two high-powered offenses, who owned the second highest total on the board in Week 7, only needed eight points in the second half to surpass the betting projection.
However, after just one Isiah Pacheco touchdown late in the fourth quarter, the game fell under the total of 48.5 by the dreaded hook - leaving over bettors in a state of shock.
POP GOES THE TUDDY ???? pic.twitter.com/nTR7SFoo61
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 22, 2023
Sportsbook Earn Vital Decisions Over Public Bettors
79% of money on Bills (-7.5)
- Buffalo, the second biggest betting favorite on Sunday, fell at New England, 29-25.
77% of money on Lions (+3)
- Detroit, the most heavily backed underdog on Sunday, were dominated 38-6 at Baltimore.
73% of money on Las Vegas (-2.5)
- In a battle of backup QBs, the Bears blew-out the Raiders 30-12.
75% of money on Tampa Bay (-2.5)
- The Falcons upset the Buccaneers 16-13, take the lead in the NFC South.
81% on of GB/DEN Over (44.5)
- The Packers and Broncos, the most wagered ‘over’ of Week 7, came up well short in a 19-17, Denver win.
69% of money on Commanders (-3)
- The Giants snapped a four-game losing streak, beating the Commanders in a low-scoring 14-7 affair.
74% of money on Cleveland (-3.5)
- Cleveland, despite beating the Colts, burned bettors after failing to cover the spread in a 39-38 road victory.
SURVIVOR POOL
Recap
In Week 7, Survivor pool contestants around the country strongly selected the Seahawks (-9.5) over the Cardinals, Buffalo (-7.5) over New England, Tampa Bay (-2.5) over the Falcons and the Rams (-3) over the Steelers.
The attraction of using favored teams is enhanced by the fact that in Survivor Pools, teams do not need to cover any spread - they just need to win the game.
In Week 7 of the NFL season, Seattle, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles made up over 80% of the selections in Survivor contests.
While the Seahawks took care of business at home, upset losses by the Bills, Buccaneers and the Rams knocked out over 25% of entrants.
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Look-Ahead
Here are five games that will likely be heavily chosen by Survivor Pool entrants in Week 8.
Buffalo (-7.5) vs Tampa Bay (TNF)
Chargers (-9) vs Chicago (SNF)
Despite teams in Survivor Pools only needing to win the game and not cover point spreads, entrants can only use each team once during the regular season making strategy on when to select a team vitally important.
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