New poll shows abortion could sink Republican hopes in 2024
A new deep-dive survey on abortion reveals how resonant the issue will continue to be in the coming presidential election cycle, how badly political operatives and analysts underestimated Americans' belief in reproductive freedom, and what an unbelievable disaster a right-wing Texas judge’s ruling has proved for Republicans nationwide.
The polling, conducted by Civiqs for Daily Kos, found that 85% of registered voters are closely following abortion news (44% very, 41% fairly closely)—the very issue Republicans repeatedly promised would fade into the rearview mirror by Election Day 2022. Now, just 13% of respondents say they aren't closely following abortion news and only 2% (!) say they're not following it all.
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Very closely: 44%
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Fairly closely: 41%
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Not too closely: 13%
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Not following at all: 2%
The survey also revealed that pundits fundamentally underestimated voters’ ability to distinguish between their personal views and the policies they support. Roughly equal numbers of people who were personally against abortion said it should be legal vs. illegal (27% legal, 26% illegal). That finding completely upends the assumption that everyone who personally considers themselves "pro-life" also supports banning the procedure.
Combined with the 42% of voters supporting the baseline right to an abortion, 69% total believe abortion should be legal—a net 43-point advantage for team legal.