UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane Main Event Preview & Best Bets
The GOAT of mixed martial arts returns to headline UFC 285 as former Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones faces No. 1 ranked heavyweight Ciryl Gane.
- Date: Saturday, March 4, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena – Paradise, Nevada | TV: PPV
UFC 285 Undercard Preview & Best Bets
UFC Heavyweight Championship Main Event
- Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane
- Odds to Win: Jones -170 | Gane +138
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO +185 | Submission +410 | Decision -125
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes -116 | No -112
Jon “Bones” Jones returns after a three-year layoff, making more headlines for his actions outside the cage than in it. Jones is arguably the MMA GOAT, having only one loss on his record (a controversial DQ against Matt Hamill).
Welcoming Jones back will be Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane. Gane began his MMA career on a ten-fight win streak before losing to UFC Heavyweight Champion Francis Ngannou. After the loss, Gane returned to knockout Tai Tuivasa.
Since the UFC has stripped Ngannou of the heavyweight title due to a contract dispute, Jones vs. Gane will be for the vacant UFC Heavyweight Championship.
Both fighters are six-foot-four, but Jones will have a 3.5-inch reach advantage. Gane will have a power advantage, as most of Jones’s knockouts have come via volume. Despite a statistical similarity, Gane will have the striking edge. He averages 5.11 significant strikes landed per minute to Jones’s 4.3 and absorbs only 0.03 more.
Jones possesses better wrestling, but there’s a question about whether he’ll even use it. Over the last few years of his career, Jones has leaned more and more on his striking. He averages 1.23 more takedowns per 15 minutes and has a ridiculous 95 percent takedown defense rate.
If this was Jones of 2015, there’s little question that he would win this bout.
However, there are so many unknowns in this contest. Jones is returning from a long layoff, has had numerous problems out of the cage, and is moving to heavyweight. Since Jones’s last UFC fight, Gane has beaten Junior dos Santos, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexander Volkov, Derrick Lewis, and Tuivasa.
Jones enters as a -170 favorite, but the value is probably with him winning by decision (+200) or Gane winning outright (+138). It’s difficult to pick against arguably the greatest fighter of all time, but Jones is coming in with a lot of rust.
Take Gane to win.
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