National NBA media believe Warriors will be in new play-in tournament
If the Warriors want to return to the playoffs, they’ll have to first navigate their way through the league’s new play-in tournament, most NBA analysts agree.
If you believe what those experts are predicting, the Warriors are likely to finish anywhere from eighth place to 10th place in the Western Conference — all spots included in the NBA’s mini-postseason tourney that precedes the actual playoffs.
The league’s one-year trial tournament will resemble the one used in last season’s postseason play-in round in the bubble. Teams finishing seventh and eighth will square off in one game, with the winner earning the seventh seed. The loser of that game plays the winner of the play-in game between the ninth- and 10th-place conference finishers to determine who gets the eighth seed.
As harrowing as that may sound, it sure beats what FiveThirtyEight’s analytics are predicting for the Warriors.
While having a healthy Stephen Curry back — along with the addition of newcomers Kelly Oubre Jr. and James Wiseman — provides Warriors fans with plenty of hope, losing Klay Thompson to a season-ending Achilles injury dooms their postseason hopes in the eyes of many.
Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, though, is easily the most depressing of the predictors. The site gives the Warriors just a 16 percent chance of making the postseason.
They’re forecasting the Warriors to finish 31-41 this season, tied with the Kings for the second-worst record in the Western Conference.
ESPN’s panel of experts is predicting the Warriors will finish at 36-36 and in ninth place in the West, with Kevin Pelton writing that even without Thompson the Warriors “would still be a tough out in a one-and-done setting with a healthy Steph Curry.”
ESPN’s Zach Lowe likes the Warriors starting lineup (Curry, Draymond Green, Oubre, Andrew Wiggins and, likely, Wiseman) for its combination of length, speed, deflections and chaos. But, in predicting the Warriors to finish ninth, Lowe worries Golden State doesn’t have enough shooting after Curry.
Lowe is also intrigued by the duo of Oubre and Wiggins, believing Oubre’s “unflappable confidence and decisiveness” could rub off on Wiggins. He also points out both Oubre and Wiggins are very adept at cutting to the basket.
Maybe Oubre and Wiggins can do enough damage while slicing to the rim to earn the proposed nickname mentioned on a Warriors broadcast: “The Slash Brothers”?
Meanwhile, Sporting News’ experts believe the Warriors will finish eighth in the West, and CBS Sports’ panel of experts have them finishing the regular season anywhere from seventh to 10th place in the West.
HoopsHype also foresees an eighth-place finish for Golden State, while pointing out the Warriors should still have enough talent to get back into the playoff mix. One key for the Warriors, according to the site, is having Wiggins at his peak. HoopsHype also writes that if Wiggins is focused and engaged — like he’s been during the preseason — the Warriors could exceed their ninth-place prediction.