Easing lockdown may create second coronavirus wave ‘bigger than first’ says ICU doc after UK’s exit plan is revealed
AN intensive care medic fears reducing coronavirus restrictions too soon is “too risky” and could create a second wave of infections “even bigger than the first”.
Dr Ron Daniels, a consultant at Birmingham Hospital, said he had seen a “chink of light” with some bed space returning at his unit after weeks battling the killer virus.
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However, he told the PA news agency: “The reality is that the effect of a second wave is just so unknown that it is too risky in most health professionals’ view to relax lockdown right now.
“We would like to see our capacity in NHS hospitals back down to below usual levels before we can safely do that.
“Do we have enough beds to cope with a second wave if lockdown is relaxed too much? Absolutely not. We’re still over our usual capacity.”
Boris Johnson tonight announced plans to allow members of the public to spend time outside as often as they like – as long as they stick to social distancing rules.
In a video message tonight the PM:
- Urged Brits to get back to work if they can’t from home
- Revealed Brits would be allowed to sunbathe in parks and play unlimited sport from Wednesday – and can go on day trips
- Said anyone coming into the country by air would be forced to quarantine
- Schools will start going back from June – but only if the infection level is low enough
- Announced he would hike up fines for people who break the rules from £60 to £100 – up to a max of £3,200 for multiple offenders
- But he warned that pubs, cinemas and mass gatherings would be off the cards for months to come
The PM revealed a detailed “road map” of how to get Britain back on its feet but still keep the deadly virus under control.
However, Dr Daniels, who is also executive director of Sepsis Trust UK, fears regulations may be lifted too soon.
And he added that the size and impact of any second wave was dependent on how many Brits have been infected – something that remains far from clear.
He said: “It may be, as some optimistic estimates suggest, as high as 60 to 80 per cent of the public who have been exposed.
“That would mean that a lot of people had had exposure to (the virus) and not developed symptoms and just gone about their lives as normal.
“But the more pessimistic, the more wary estimates, suggest that somewhere under 10 per cent of our population have been exposed.
“If that’s true, then we expect the second wave – if lockdown is relaxed too quickly and too aggressively – could even be bigger than the first.”
The UK Government also came in for criticism for its new “stay alert” messaging, described as potentially “catastrophic” by Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.
Dr Daniels agreed the messaging was “vague”, and questioned: “How do people stay alert? How on earth do they control the virus? We assume it means control the virus spreading.”
He added: “My concern is that with these new guidelines being so vague they’re very open to interpretation.
“They’re open to almost gaming by members of the public who are frustrated at having to stay at home all the time that they’re going to be worth little more than the paper they’re written on.
“That’s the concern – we’re massively reliant now on the way the public behave.
“People are desperate to see their family, they’re desperate to see their friends. And if we allow that, and if people are allowed to flout the rules… we’re going to find ourselves in a situation where the R value starts increasing significantly.”
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Meanwhile, a scientific adviser to the government has warned Britain could suffer a shocking death toll by the end of the year if ministers relax the lockdown too fast.
“Whether we get 100,000 deaths by the end of the year depends on how quickly measures are relaxed, how effective contact tracing is and whether we get on top of the situation in hospitals and care homes,” the adviser told the Times.
“The care home and hospital epidemics seed infection back into the community via the staff employed in those institutions. We have to control them before significant relaxation will be possible.”