Indians Top 100 prospects 2020, 9-18

Since the commentary takes up more time than anticipated, there will be one more fanpost than planned. Here's part 4 of the Top 100.

Let me preface this by saying that I consider those two Tiers pretty close, so don't get hung up on the ranking number. The hitters get a slight advantage because of lesser injury risk, but this is basically the 45/45+ bucket

Tier 3 Upside Hitters

9. 2B/LF A. Bracho

Out of 144 teenagers in the AZL with 100+ PA, Bracho ranks 5th in wRc+, behind prospect studs CJ Abrams (1st) and Marco Luciano (4th). The top 20 has BABIPs between 366 and 507, many well over 400. Bracho's BABIP was by far the lowest (and "most normal") at 306. Part of that is because Brach barely hits the ball on the ground with a 0.49 GB/FB. His SwStr% was among the best too (16th, with Victor Nova 13th btw). This means he didn't get lucky, to the contrary, it should have been even better. Still, his ISO was elite, even ahead of Luciano and Abrams. He's a legit 60/60 hit/power upside bat and the only reason he isn't in Tier 1 is the missing track record combined with questions about his defensive position. If he does this again next year in LC, he's a top 3 lock.

10. SS A. Martinez

Here's Rocchio's 2018 DSL 323/391/434, wOBA 405, wRc+ 140 on a 369 BABIP, 21,4 SwStr%, 4,5 BB%, 12,6 K%

Here's A. Martinez' DSL 306/402/428, wOBA 407, wRc+ 134 on a 347 BABIP, 19,6 SwStr%, 11,1 BB%, 11,1 K%

Yeah, it's "only" DSL, but that league has become more professional and indicative for stateside success. Scouts have taken notice too. Tools are flashing, athleticism at display. He's checking a lot of high upside boxes. And above all, that advanced approach is pretty hard to find among 17yo players in the Dominican League. He's hyped up, but the hype is warranted.

11. OF D.Johnson

On most other team's list, Johnson would be in the top 10, even top 5 and if you value proximity over all else, he probably comfortably is there. After an injury hampered 2018, Johnson finally broke out in AA and AAA. His 120 wRc+ wasn't good enough for the top 50 (62nd) of 200 25yo in AAA though (C. Arroyo was 15th btw) and he did it running a 370 BABIP. The good news is that he improved his BB/K moving up to AAA, so his plate approach is still developing and improving. He has crazy tools, but they're not showing up consistently in game. He has 70 grade speed but got caught 10 out of 22 times attempting to steal. I know that many would like to throw him into the Indians lineup in 8 weeks, but for his development a couple of months in Columbus would probably be better, similarly to Oscar Mercado last year.

12. C Bo Naylor

Naylor got a very aggressive assignment for a young HS catcher out of Canada by being sent straight to full season A-Ball to expose him to as much catching as possible. By all accounts, scouts eye test and Davenport metric (+6), he mastered that part and is developing fine there, which is important, because he wasn't a lock to stay at C, but last season was a good step towards that. At the plate, he struggled mightily in the first two months of the season, then had a good June, but bad July again and finished strong in August. He was inconsistent and his BB/K didn't really improve from month to month (his K% did though at the expense of BB%) or 1st/2nd half. Still, his 110 wRc+ as a 19yo C in his first pro season gets a passing grade and he belongs among the elite young bats in the system, more so if he remains at catcher.

13. 1B B.Bradley

So Bradley posts his highest everything in his first full season at AAA at age 22/23 since 2015 and he's meh because he didn't go Pete Alonso in his first 49 ML PA? Cold. Good thing CLEFO values track records. His defense at 1B in Columbus was actually better than most reports indicate (+3 per CD metric). His K% increased and his BB‰ not enough to compensate. That's a problem, but at least he went bat sht crazy with the ISO to make us look away. This can go in a number of different ways and as a bat only fringe 1B/DH type, he doesn't have thee luxury of time, even though he'll still be 23yo till the end of May. Where's the patience? This is starting to remind me of Jesus Aguilar 2.0 in the making.

Tier 4 Upside Arms with reliever risk

14. RHP E. Clase

Wow. That should suffice, right? Did you see that? Let me see that again. One last time. OK, strikeout or a weak arse grounder to a mole in the infield, good luck with BABIP. There are seriously fans that want a higher K%. Who complains about a pretty good 9ish K% when he combines with very elite GB%? If anything it shows that there are enough bats that are happy to just cut their swing and throw the bat at it instead of looking like an overmatched rookie ball player. This guy is 21yo and has up to three elite above average pitches with one being the equivalent of a finishing move. Scouts don't like his command and he probably doesn't always know where the ball will land, good thing we have two elite defensive catchers, how about that, what a coincidence with the equally wild Karinchak expected to carry more responsibility. Yet, his BB/9 are very low in pro ball, so while the command is below average, his stuff bails it out to average or better on the stat sheet. That matters. Start to worry when his stuff turns into Nick Wittgren. Just don't overuse him, please Tito.

15. RHP L. Torres

One of my favorite picks of what looks like an elite draft class for first time GM/shot caller Scott Barnsby. Chapeau. Torres was one of the best and youngest arms from a northeastern HS (scouts bake in a bit more development upside due to limited exposure and lesser competition). But Torres entered the Arizona facility and the universal take from within and outside the org was that he looked even better and much more advanced than anticipated. Increasing the likelihood he can be a SP from a stuff perspective. Ain't that nice to hear? But, he went under the knife for TJ in May and missed the entire last season. Feels like we have a lot of good prospects coming back. He's still only 19 and just needs healthy innings.

16. RHP J. Karinchak

Crazy, amped up K. Gotta love that sort of fire in the late innings as long as the failures that come for everyone don't break him mentally. I so want to see him become our closer, get the Wild Thing nickname and then show off the Ricky Vaughn haircut after an important save. Please let this happen. This could literally increase attendance by O/U 10? 20%? What you say?

17. RHP C. Vargas

Props to OhioTommy, who kept propping up Carlos Vargas despite very poor results at low levels. I was late to join, but have started to see the light too now. Yes, he's inconsistent and often wild, but when he's on, he has some of the best stuff among low level arms. He cut down his BB% and if he keeps it there, I expect him to breeze through A-Ball at age 20. Very exciting arm that needs to be added to the 40 in November. He's pretty much where Oviedo was last offseason.

18. RHP C. Morris

I knew little to nothing about Morris entering the 2018 draft. He was a draft eligible So and sometimes those slip under the radar (like TJ Friedl). Morris was a known pitching talent out of HS with limited innings at elite SP University of North Carolina. Indians did a wonderful job of staying on him and had a good sense he'd sign for a moderate sum in round 7. Voila, another college SP steal. Morris is 6'5, has three average or better pitches, two projected to be more (FB/SL) and that arsenal comes with solid average command. Not bad for a relatively low mileage SP arm. Of course, let your wildest Indians development system fantasy project over that base andse where it takes you.