Iran war ‘will knock £480 off UK household incomes by the end of the year’
British households incomes will be £480 lower this year compared to a world where the Iran war never kicked off, according to new analysis.
The hike in oil and gas prices resulting from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz over the past six weeks has cause global economic turmoil.
Bills for UK households have not yet been affected, with April’s energy price cap – set before the conflict began – remaining in effect until the start of July.
But the Resolution Foundation think tank has warned the impact could last long enough to knock hundreds of pounds off household incomes.
Its research shows the rise in energy bills and the price of petrol at the pump will mean the average working-age household in the UK is £480 worse off than it would have been without the war.
For the poorest fifth of the country, incomes are set to grow by 1.2% this year according to the think tank – down from predicted 2.8% growth ahead of the conflict.
However, there is one group set for a windfall as a result of Donald Trump’s actions in the Middle East: jet fuel companies in the US.
At the end of March, the US president gave unsolicited advice to the UK if there was a struggle to access jet fuel: ‘Buy from the US, we have plenty.’
Where does UK jet fuel come from?
The UK appears to have taken Trump’s advice – since the start of the war, it has become the top destination for US jet fuel exports.
Government data shows three of the top four sources for the UK’s jet fuel imports in 2024 were located on the Persian Gulf, with almost 40% being sourced from Kuwait alone.
The United Arab Emirates provided 12% while Saudi Arabia was the source for 11%. India was the second-highest point of origin with 15%.
According to the Financial Times, it is predicted that half of the UK’s jet fuel imports in the first half of April this year will have come from the US – up from an average of 7% over 2025.
Data from the London Stock Exchange Group shows a quarter of all the jet fuel exports from the US last month were sent to the UK, making it the largest market for the resource.
Asked about the Resolution Foundation’s research on BBC 5 Live this morning, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said people needed to be ‘a bit careful about the numbers’ as it would depend on the speed of a resolution.
But he refused to lay any blame for the situation on Donald Trump or Israel, who started the war with strikes on Tehran at the end of February.
Starmer said: ‘It’s Iran that has caused the restriction on traffic and vessels through the Gulf, and they’re doing that in breach of international law.’
His comments contrasted with those directed at Trump by Rachel Reeves at the beginning of April.
She told BBC Radio 2: ‘I’m angry that Donald Trump has chosen to go to war in the Middle East – a war that there’s not a clear plan of how to get out of.
‘It’s why we didn’t want to enter this.’
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