The state of cancer in Canada: 4 in 10 will receive a diagnosis in their lifetime

The number of Canadians diagnosed with or dying from cancer will remain at “high levels” in 2026, and while survival rates are improving for several cancers, worrying trends are emerging for others, according to a new report.

Overall, the projected estimates “underscore the substantial impact cancer will continue to pose in Canada” in 2026, researchers report in this week’s issue of the Canadian Medical Association Journal.

Nearly half the population, 42 per cent of all people in Canada, is expected to be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lives, the authors report.

An estimated 254,100 people will be diagnosed with cancer and 87,900 will die from cancer in 2026 alone.

Here are five key trends to know.

Pancreatic cancer is increasing and projected to be third leading cause of cancer deaths

Lung, breast, prostate and colorectal cancer are expected to remain the most diagnosed cancers, accounting for nearly half (47 per cent) of all new cases diagnosed this year.

Pancreatic cancer is expected to be the third most common cancer killer, behind lung and colorectal cancer.

“Since the early 2000s, the incidence of pancreatic cancer has been moderately increasing while no progress has been made in reducing mortality rates,” the researchers report.

“Pancreatic cancer is expected to remain the third leading cause of cancer-related death in 2026, with a similar number of males (3,400) and females (3,100) expected to die from the disease.”

Excess body size has been linked to a higher risk of pancreatic cancer. According to Statistics Canada, 49 per cent of adults in Canada have a waist circumference — and abdominal fatness — that hikes their risk for pancreatic and other cancers.

New cases of colorectal cancer are declining

Overall, incidence and death rates for colorectal cancer — one of the most common cancers among both women and men — continue to fall, likely due to increased screening efforts (colonoscopies and stool sample testing) that began in the early 2000s. Since then, the incidence rates have dropped by 32 per cent in men and 29 per cent in women owing to “the removal of pre-cancer lesions and earlier diagnoses” as well as improved treatments, the team reports.

“These reductions have occurred despite jurisdictions not achieving their screening targets.” There is also concern that people under 50 are increasingly being diagnosed with colorectal cancer.

More women are expected to be diagnosed with lung cancers than men

Lung cancer, the deadliest of all cancers for both sexes, is expected to claim 19,300 Canadian lives in 2026.

“On its own lung cancer is expected to account for 1 in 5 cancer-related deaths in 2026,” the researchers report.

While lung cancer rates and deaths have historically been higher among males than females, the sex differences “have been converging over the last 40 years,” with the rates declining for a longer time among men, and only more recently among women. This year, more females than males are expected to be diagnosed with lung cancers.

What ’ s more, “a higher proportion of lung cancers among females are not explained by tobacco consumption,” which suggests other factors are at play and need to be addressed, the authors wrote.

According to Statistics Canada, exposure to radon — a radioactive gas people can’t see, smell or taste — is the second-leading cause of lung cancer in Canada, and the leading cause in non-smokers. About one in five people living in Canada live in dwellings with radon levels at or above the current guideline, according to a national radon survey.

A growing and aging population means more people diagnosed with or dying from cancer

Canada’s population grew by about 9.5 per cent between 2020 and 2025, primarily due to immigration, “and continues to age, with a record percentage (19.5 per cent) of people aged 65 and older in 2025,” the authors wrote. Cancer risk rises with age.

Meanwhile, cancer remains the leading cause of death in Canada, accounting for 26 per cent of all deaths in 2023. It’s also the leading cause of premature death, particularly for females, and among several “concerning trends” is the rise in cases expected for uterine and cervical cancer.

After decades of decline, the rate of cervical cancer has plateaued “well above the World Health Organization’s elimination target” of fewer than four cases per 100,000 females and has increased among younger women. Cervical cancer is almost always caused by HPV, the human papillomavirus,  for which there is a vaccine, making cervical cancer among the most preventable cancers.

The death rate for uterine cancer has been increasing since the mid-2000s and is expected to be 53 per cent higher this year than it was in 2005.

Risks include rising rates of obesity and women having fewer or no children, or delaying childbirth until later in life.

Overall, men are more likely to develop or die from cancer than women.

Five-year survival has improved for many cancers, even cancers diagnosed at late stages

While the overall incidence rates (591.4 cancers per 100,000 population) and deaths (200 per 100,000) are expected to decrease from 2025 rates, “the total number of cancer cases and deaths are expected to remain at high levels,” given Canada’s growing and greying population, the researchers wrote.

Still, advances in treatments like immunotherapies and targeted therapies means several cancers are now treated with a realistic shot at a cure “where only a decade ago, outcomes were poor.”

That means “a rapidly growing population of people living with and surviving cancer.”

National Post

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