As Carney gains in Ottawa, Quebec Liberals pull into first ahead of PQ in Léger poll
Prime Minister Mark Carney is in Montreal this week for the Liberal party convention and is riding a wave of momentum after a string of floor crossings to his party in recent months have brought the Liberals to the cusp of a majority in Parliament.
But he is not the only Liberal making gains.
In Quebec, Charles Milliard’s provincial Liberals are leading for the first time in years ahead of a fall election, according to a new poll.
A recent Léger survey, as first reported by TVA, puts the Quebec Liberal Party at 33 per cent, just ahead of the Parti Québécois at 32 per cent, which had led polling since late 2023.
The ruling Coalition Avenir Québec, meanwhile, rose four points to 13 per cent after hitting a low of nine per cent last month. The Conservative Party of Quebec dropped three points to 12 per cent and Québec solidaire stood at eight per cent, down one.
It follows a period of upheaval for the Quebec Liberal Party, rocked by recent leadership turmoil and, ultimately, the resignation of its previous leader, Pablo Rodriguez, over a financing scandal.
But Milliard, who succeeded Rodriguez and was acclaimed as the leader in February this year, appears to be stabilizing the party.
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Now, the Quebec Liberals are beginning to lay the groundwork for a campaign. In March, André Pratte, the veteran journalist, returned to chair the party’s national political commission, effectively its internal think-tank, and described the moment as “crucial” for Quebec’s future. Elements of the party’s platform are expected to begin rolling out in early summer.
The Parti Québécois, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who has helped revive the party, saw its support hit a high of 38 per cent at the end of 2025. And it continues to advocate for a referendum on independence, despite polling suggesting about two-thirds of Quebecers oppose the idea.
For the CAQ, its plummeting support over the past three years comes as party members are set to choose a new leader on Sunday between Christine Fréchette and Bernard Drainville.
Léger polling suggested the CAQ’s support could rise to 18 per cent under Fréchette but fall to eight per cent under Drainville.
Members of the National Assembly are not due back at the legislature until May, giving the CAQ’s incoming leadership some time to regroup.
Voters will head to the polls in October.
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