“We have never been closer”: Top Republican worries GOP will lose Texas House majority

Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick on Wednesday said Texas Republicans are “going to have a tough time” holding onto their majority in the state House this fall, the latest and perhaps most notable sign yet of GOP unease about the midterm elections.

Speaking at the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s annual conference in Austin, Patrick said it is imperative for the loser of Republicans’ rancorous Senate primary runoff — whether it’s U.S. Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton — to support the winner against Democratic candidate James Talarico. The Austin state representative locked up his party’s nomination in March and will face whoever emerges from the May 26 GOP election, which has already seen both candidates resume their mudslinging after a vicious first round.

Without a unifying endorsement from the runoff loser, Patrick cautioned, Republicans could lose the Senate seat, an outcome he said would guarantee Democratic control of the upper chamber in Washington. A divided GOP also could imperil down-ballot candidates, he added, pointing to the 2018 midterms when U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly defeated former El Paso congressman Beto O’Rourke and a recent special election for a ruby red Texas Senate seat won by a Democrat in a district President Donald Trump had carried by 17 points in 2024.

“Get over it and come together as one,” Patrick said, aiming his comments at Cornyn and Paxton. “We’re going to have a tough time holding the Texas House.”

Patrick, the presiding officer of the Texas Senate, said he thinks his own chamber ”is in good shape,” then repeated his point that Cornyn and Paxton are “going to have to help House members.”

In 2018, when Trump was first in office, Texas Democrats flipped 12 seats in the state House. Republicans have controlled the lower chamber since 2003 and currently hold 88 of its 150 seats. Democrats would need to flip at least 14 seats to win a majority.

In the state Senate, the GOP has a 20-11 advantage.

House Speaker Dustin Burrows, R-Lubbock, responded to Patrick’s remark on social media without mentioning his counterpart by name.

“We will not lose the Texas House. We will fight to retain every Republican seat,” Burrows said. “I look forward to the fall campaign where we get to talk about Texas’ prosperity under Republican leadership; and, I trust the voters of Texas to continue to vote for conservative government up and down the ballot!”

State Rep. Christina Morales of Houston, who chairs House Democrats’ campaign arm, said Patrick’s warning was well founded and pointed to factors like high everyday costs, Republicans’ school voucher program and federal deportation efforts.

“Dan Patrick is telling Republicans they’re in trouble in November, and for once, he’s telling the truth,” Morales said in a statement. “We have never been closer and we are not slowing down.”

The warning from Patrick, the state’s second-ranking elected official, is the latest to suggest Republicans are worried about backlash to President Donald Trump’s policies. No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, and Republicans are coming off a 2024 cycle in which Trump carried Texas by nearly 14 points.

Patrick is up for reelection himself, seeking a fourth four-year term. He won his March primary, easily fending off three lesser-known opponents, and will face the winner of the Democratic runoff between state Rep. Vikki Goodwin of Austin and union leader Marcos Vélez.

 

Disclosure: Texas Public Policy Foundation has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

This article first appeared on The Texas Tribune.

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