Libman: Terrebonne adds up to more than just another byelection
Sometimes basic math and politics are inextricably linked.
There are 343 federal ridings in Canada, which means a party must win at least 172 seats to form a majority in parliament and be in a position to pass laws without needing opposition party support or worrying about a non-confidence motion that could topple the government and spark a new election.
In last year’s general election, the Liberals under Mark Carney won 169 seats, falling only three short. Since then, five opposition members of parliament (four Conservatives and one NDP) have crossed the floor to the Liberals. But two Liberal MPs — Chrystia Freeland and Bill Blair — have since resigned.
Furthermore, the Liberal win in Terrebonne riding by one vote was annulled in February by the Supreme Court when a Bloc Québécois voter showed her mail-in vote had been returned because of an Elections Canada return-address error.
That all equates to 169 + (4 + 1) – (2 + 1) = 171, which is now just one short of a majority.
On Monday, three byelections will be held to fill the vacancies, two of which are in Liberal strongholds. Much of the lead-up chatter, therefore, has been about how the governing Liberals will finally obtain their majority — albeit by a razor-thin margin, for now.
If they also win Terrebonne, it would be a bonus and more of a cushion, but the significance of that byelection goes well beyond that. The Terrebonne result could be a foreshadowing of the critical Quebec election in October.
Until last year, voters in that riding north-east of Laval had elected the Bloc Québécois candidate every time since the separatist party’s inception, except once (in 2011, the NDP “orange wave”). Provincially, the Terrebonne-area riding saw the candidate for the separatist Parti Québécois win 11 times in the last 14 elections.
The Liberal win in Terrebonne, albeit by one vote, was its first since 1980 in this nationalist stronghold. That breakthrough — together with the party winning twice as many Quebec seats than the Bloc — was attributed to voters opting for stability and Carney’s economic experience as part of a stronger Team Canada to take on Donald Trump’s tariff threats and annexation musings in an uncertain world.
A year later, the trade war is still roiling, and the geo-political context has become even more complex, volatile and unpredictable. As we enter the six-month run-up to the Quebec election, one question looms large: Can the PQ hold its wide lead in the polls among francophones — set against this ever-darkening backdrop?
PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has committed, if elected, to holding another referendum on independence — a rupture from Canada — at a time when polls show around 70 per cent of Quebecers — understandably more concerned about other matters — are against separation.
Carney remains a popular figure in Quebec, largely because he exudes calm, experience and maturity amid all the turbulence.
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Monday’s byelection in Terrebonne could serve as another litmus test of where many nationalist Quebecers are leaning right now. Will voters reflexively go with their traditional impulse and support the Bloc? Or will they tilt Liberal, signalling an inclination toward a more stable and reassuring alternative during these volatile times?
A Conservative organizer suggested to me that in their door-to-door canvassing, it appears the Bloc is leading. But if it’s close, as it was last time, Terrebonne could turn out to be a bellwether riding, indicating shifting winds for the francophone vote in the provincial election.
If many voters veer away from the Bloc — which isn’t even in a position to initiate a tumultuous referendum process itself — their PQ cousins — who do pose a direct threat of separation — will likely face their own math problem with declining numbers.
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